Any Remainers feeling positive about chances of staying in EU - even a little bit?

[EdieParfitt]

Anyone?

I'm hoping that Mishcon de Reya's legal challenge that a parliamentary debate and vote on the Referendum is required before Article 50 is invoked will kick start a a remain fight back.

If the conservatives cock the economy up with this negligent and irresponsible process they will be out no matter what the state of labour. This won't go ahead, if it does it will be a fudge.

It is a glaring flaw in the EU system that unless you take citizenship you cannot vote in your country of residency and after 15 years also cannot vote in your home country.
Eh? The government could have allowed 16-18 year olds, EU nationals etc to vote in the referendum; it chose not to.

It's an EU wide issue though Bread, a friend lives in the Netherlands and cannot vote in our domestic elections or those of the Netherlands.

A team at Credit Suisse have guessed poked some entrails estimated the probability of us exiting is

But the source of the problem is the UK government, it's not a failing of the EU. The 15 year rule is totally arbitrary, the government admits this, it's even been challenged as violating (EU) freedom of movement
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-british-expats-lose-supreme-court-fight-for-right-to-vote-a7046546.html

This article from the FT seems to think that Brexit not happening is not a certainty (obviously!) but a possibility.

next.ft.com/content/a6e37133-9c7f-3fcb-ae19-dfbc2d06d068

I come from an area where everyone I know voted leave and I can tell you the feeling just gets stronger the more this is delayed - not invoking article 50 will cause more people to turn against the EU.

I find this thread odd as every politician in the race says we will defo exit (just a matter of timing) so why is it still being suggested we won't?

Oh I'm not saying otherwise re the 15 year rule, Bread.

My friend was deeply pissed off he was unable to vote to remain, he has settled in the Nertherlands, has a family, job, friends and feels his position is no longer secure.

He often talked about his frustration at essentially being forcefully disenfranchised, years before the referendum itself was announced.

Buttercup

I don't think anybody here really doubts that we will leave the EU. But I am certain the shape our exit takes will displease a great many of the Leave voters, along with every single one of the Remain voters.

It's not like breaking up with your boyfriend and cutting contact. Invoking article 50 immediately gives us only 2 years to negotiate, which surely anybody but the blindest fool can see isn't very long at all once you consider it is the future of multiple countries on the line.

waterfalls I was saying that the other day. Is there any reason constitutionally we can't have a Canadian PM? Does he have a British grannie hidden somewhere?

strictly let's get on to Who Do You Think You Are? They can fudge his family history and make it look legit.

A free trade agreement with movement of labour would probably be something that many in the Remain camp would accept.

I should also add, I don't think all the Leave voices are equal. Tory voters in the shires who want to Leave will have to be accommodated. Leave voters in deprived areas will be told to get stuffed.

I find this thread odd as every politician in the race says we will defo exit (just a matter of timing) so why is it still being suggested we won't?

They have indeed, except a couple have raised the matter of "parliament having a duty to do what's in the best interests of the country".

Ken Clarke was one of these - and as we know from the Sky footage today (which I'm still laughing at) he is far too long in the tooth to worry about the effect of such things on his career.

Other MP's I think have to be seen to be take the vote as final, and indeed are. For now. Politicians do change their minds.

I did, but now I don't.

I agree with you UnderTGT, I don't think any of the leadership candidates would dare say they'll just toss Brexit, as much more prudent to wait until the range of options start to become clearer. And if those options look terrible, well perhaps things can be looked at again. And if there are any non terrible options (I'll eat my hat) then everyone's a winner.

I would say to be clear though, I think there is a reasonable chance we will remain in the EU, although perhaps on different terms to those now. But not until much politicking has been done at Westminster and Brussels.

I have watched the Ken Clarke video TEN times now .

Leave voters in deprived areas will be told to get stuffed. Sadly I think a really good chance of that.

Of course they will be told to get stuffed if anyone even bothers to communicate with them at all.

We should have airdropped copies of The Economist onto Boston and Wales.

Once the true cost of brexit becomes clear, they may well change their tune. How much was poured into the currency markets today by Mark Carney? £150bn? (unimaginable amount). and I don't even really know what this means!

How much will the negotiations cost - What cost to the economy - Our standard of living?

The saddest thing about all of this (assuming no EU nationals are deported) will be how those in deprived areas thought they were finally having their say only to get well and truly shafted, yet again.

Can see it going that way already in Port Talbot. Without the steelworks the town will die.

Once the true cost of brexit becomes clear, they may well change their tune. How much was poured into the currency markets today by Mark Carney? £150bn? (unimaginable amount).

From the figures I could find £150bn is over a decades worth of membership costs to the EU. Any savings made from leaving the EU will likely take decades (generations?) to recoup. This is the tip of the iceberg.

Thank Goodness we have got out now, and can start the extraction process as soon as possible.

will be how those in deprived areas thought they were finally having their say only to get well and truly shafted, yet again.
^ perhaps, on the other hand its those people abandoned by labour who have swung this vote? Highest vote turn out since.....

It would be suicidal for any party to shaft these people?

It would be suicidal for any party to shaft these people?

What do you propose a Tory government peddling austerity will offer them? Oh, and that EU funding will have dried up too.

Tory govt have spent the last year shafting poor and vulnerable people haven't they? £12bn knocked off the welfare budget in their last manifesto.

Rock

Given the UN has said the austerity cuts implemented by the Conservatives are tantamount to human rights abuse due to the impact on the poorer (not just the poorest), more deprived areas in the UK. This is whilst there was still the nice cushion of EU funding to mitigate it, how exactly do you think these people are going to fare once there is no EU funding, once further austerity measures are put in place?

Those people will suffer, because the government categorically does not care about them.