The Westministenders Hunger Games continues. Boris still trying not to be outmanoevered.

[RedToothBrush]

Clearly Boris didn't get the memo, on when to quit the power games, even after Gove schooled him in the dark arts of the Tory Leadership....

So the Tory Smackdown rolls on whilst Corbyn STILL clings on. UKIP has now entered the race to make a challenge for who can make the biggest leadership contest shambles.

In The Blue Corner
May strikes fear into the hearts of EU citizens as she counts her bargaining chips.
Gove strikes fear into the hearts of humans, with his Martian twitch.
Loathsom strikes fear in the hearts of Britains by talking about babies brains.
Crabb strikes fear into the hearts of Torys by suggesting a plan that Corbyn might like. (and that beard doesn't help).
And Fox.
Well he just turned up.

Johnson is still waiting in the wings to stab Gove. He'd quite fancy a seat at the cabinet table too.
Osborne has gone quite again and we wait with baited breathe to see if he is the 'Charlie off Casualty' of the Tory Party (y'know whatever happens he somehow survives like a cockroach).

In The Red Corner
Corbyn apologies. So we know he's getting a bit desperate.
Will the Unions figure out something else to do other than sit with their head in hands.
Angela Eagle is still doing jellyfish impressions and hasn't found that backbone.
We STILL don't know who the fuck Owen Smith is?
Will Bliar's chicken's finally come home to roost?
The Cult of Momentum, rumbles on. We aren't quite sure who they actually vote for, but they seem to like their Dear Leader.
When will this country next have an opposition party?

Its kinda getting boring guys, we need some action now. End the Chicken Coup! The Tories are definitely out doing in the high drama stakes.

In the Purple Corner
Farage has gone! Hurrah. We hope only that he stays under that rock.
(Don't count on it. They'll wheel him out when they need publicity)
Will Leadsom be elected leader? Oh sorry, wrong party. I was getting confused for a second there.
Will they throw the cuckoo Carswell out? [:)]
Will they be able to find a less offensive leader than Farage who can unite them in their common goal of errrr..... yeah. That.
How long before one of their candidates has to apologise for something?

And I suppose I should ask, when will a50 be triggered....? And by whom?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2675432-Boris-outmaneovered-Et-tu-Gove-Corbyn-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-Continues? Previous thread 4

I think this is the latest position, but I COULD be incorrect on any or all of these parts.

a50 can be done by the PM alone.
BUT
The Common Communities Act has to be repealed.
WHICH MEANS THAT
A Bill has to be passed through the House of Commons.
They could refuse to pass it, though it is unlikely
If that is approved
IT THEN
Has to be approved by the House of Lords
They could refuse to and send it back to the Commons, thus causing a potential constitutional crisis.
This is not out of the question as the Lords is not bound by the will of the people in the same way as the Commons - for precisely this reason.
They are supposed to do what is the best interests of the country without having the conflict of interest of their own re-election. The best reason for this would of course be the threat of breaking the Union.
This is completely within our democratic structure and set up.
Throwing it back to the commons would mean they would have to amend proposals somehow.
The most likely result of a throw back to the Commons I would say would be a 2nd Referendum of some sort.
This would also absolve the PM of responsibility as the PM can not force the Lords to do anything if they are stubborn.
That said, I don't know how the Lords is split, so I don't know whether this.
HOWEVER
French Legal experts are now also saying that you could trigger a50
AND still reverse it once triggered.
This means if we have not exited by 2020, then a GE is potentially still in play.

The problem is how will the public react and how will that affect future elections and public trust?
AND
How will the rest of the EU react to any attempt to not make Brexit, Brexit.

The reality, is it would likely stir up a LOT of far right trouble. Foreseeably for many years. And the EU may just want rid of us, so they don't have to deal with rude obstructive kippers in the EP. They could find a way to kick us out yet.

And we've still got Juncker to deal with. Which isn't good. And the EU, is still a monster that needs reform and not one really likes.

I guess it depends on just how much of a disaster Brexit is for the country and the EU as a whole.

There are also other scenarios involving some sort of second referendum (not a re run of the last one, but a different one involving choices of future) or this one of a GE.

A GE is the least likely scenario.

Suffice to say, that whilst Brexit means Brexit, the next PM is still going to have a lot of work to do to get a new deal and/or to Brexit.

The matter, is far from decided. If anyone tells you differently, I strongly feel that they are incorrect. Frankly I don't think anyone knows how this is going to pan out yet, and that is part of the problem and why we have this level of uncertainty.

There may also be other things that crop up along the way, that I have no idea about.

Hope that makes it a bit clearer (!) yeah I know, its ridiculously complicated

Oh and actually the Conservative Party might WANT the Labour Party to get their bloody act together now, as it might be in their interests.

Possibly for the first time ever!

I'm really enjoying your analysis Red.
As you say, anything could crop up along the way; Donald Rumsfeld's 'unknown unknowns' could affect the process.

Liam Fox came last and is out, Stephen Crabb has withdrawn.

Leaving May, Loathsome and the Gove.

The Tory Party rules are that they whittle down to the last 2.
If there is only one candidate left standing, they don't require the membership to approve.
They might all be considering the example of the Labour Party, where the members chose someone who the PLP couldn't stand: Leadsom now seems to have only about ⅓ of May's support among MPs

Would Leadsom & Gove be prepared to stand down in TM's favour - and what would they demand in return ?

Meanwhile, the pound hit $1.30, its lowest value in over 30 years.
This should be concentrating minds in both parties, but Labour seem oblivious - "Crisis, what crisis ?" - so Tories have plenty of time to sell the office of PM to the highest bidders.

I think the other thing is, that we can't move too fast even if someone one wanted to, unless they were being utterly reckless. This is NOT in our best interests.

Which makes life more difficult that it appears for even the Brexit candidates.

People are going to be extremely unhappy with whatever option is put on the table for one reason or another, simply because unicorns were promised. Which may also mean that unrest and the rise of the far right is realistically unavoidable with the best will in the world.

Its a total mess. I would not like to be the one heading it up as they will need an iron will.

I think if it goes to the party either Gove or Leadsom is likely to beat May.

It could be just fear talking.

Justified fear after the Brexit vote.

Thank you for the explanations.
'returns to her seat'

Gove has a iron will.

But not in a good way.

I think if it goes to the party either Gove or Leadsom is likely to beat May.
I agree. I am watching the Daily Mail comments section.

Sums it all up really.

I actually can't even wish for that, even though I know it's least worst.

I'm genuinely holding out for a miracle.

Hahaha love it

Brexit If things go from pear-shaped to economic disaster in the next couple of years AND public opinion changes sufficiently, we have an - embarassing but effective - final chance then to reverse Brexit:

"At a separate hearing of the Treasury select committee, leading constitutional lawyers revealed that the French government legal service has informed the French government that
the UK would be entitled to rescind a notice to withdraw even though it had invoked article 50.

"Such flexibility would mean that even if it was triggered,
the UK could reverse a decision to withdraw, if either parliament or a second referendum endorsed the step."

We need a PM who would be flexible enough - not ideologically "Brexit or Bust" - who would pull the plug then if it were necessary to prevent ruin.
Leadsom & Gove - or at least their puppet masters - would drive Brexit to the bitter end regardless.
Can't displease Murdoch or the hedge fund vultures.

Haha!

I saw in the evening standard that Gove (and Johnson?!) could be given cabinet positions if TM becomes PM. So current best case scenario - Tactical voting ousts Leadsom in favour of Gove, Gove then drops out on promise of senior position as we all know he doesn't want to be PM anyway

wishing on a star for TM !
Brexit: the journey that takes you to depths to which you never imagined you would sink

I think if it goes to the party either Gove or Leadsom is likely to beat May.
Yeah that's my general feeling too. The noise on twitter is definitely not for May though YouGov seems to think she is the preferred option. I'm not convinced by YouGov survey.

Cutting a deal might be May's way out, but I don't know that a deal CAN be cut. I think Gove and Leadsom would be inclined to try their luck.

All to play for I guess.

Brexit: the journey that takes you to depths to which you never imagined you would sink

Project Fear! 😘😢

The suggestion is that members want a Gove-Leadsom ticket with Boris in an important role.

This is my unholy trinity.

Seriously - the Tory membership would vote Gove?? The mind boggles. They would rather vote for the backstabber who has publicly stated on numerous occasions he doesn't want to be PM?

They must really see TM as a threat

Dear god if it ends up being a Gove/Lothesome/Bojo ticket my plans to emigrate will accelerate beyond measure.

It does make me wonder what dark forces are currently at play though. The establishment clearly wants TM. How much power do you think they have to make this happen?

Parties get more chances to choose a leader than we get to leave EU

There is chess going on here. There are people in the background pulling strings I'm sure. But its not just for TM.

That's half the problem.

Anne Marie someone, MP for somewhere (wasn't paying attention when the intros were done) was saying on ch4 news that a large number of the Conservative membership is elderly and she thinks they're more likely to vote for the establishment candidate aka May. She herself favoured Leadsom and didn't seem thrilled about this prospect.

There was another Ann Marie someone, MP of somewhere who favoured May.