The Westministenders Hunger Games continues. Boris still trying not to be outmanoevered.

[RedToothBrush]

Clearly Boris didn't get the memo, on when to quit the power games, even after Gove schooled him in the dark arts of the Tory Leadership....

So the Tory Smackdown rolls on whilst Corbyn STILL clings on. UKIP has now entered the race to make a challenge for who can make the biggest leadership contest shambles.

In The Blue Corner
May strikes fear into the hearts of EU citizens as she counts her bargaining chips.
Gove strikes fear into the hearts of humans, with his Martian twitch.
Loathsom strikes fear in the hearts of Britains by talking about babies brains.
Crabb strikes fear into the hearts of Torys by suggesting a plan that Corbyn might like. (and that beard doesn't help).
And Fox.
Well he just turned up.

Johnson is still waiting in the wings to stab Gove. He'd quite fancy a seat at the cabinet table too.
Osborne has gone quite again and we wait with baited breathe to see if he is the 'Charlie off Casualty' of the Tory Party (y'know whatever happens he somehow survives like a cockroach).

In The Red Corner
Corbyn apologies. So we know he's getting a bit desperate.
Will the Unions figure out something else to do other than sit with their head in hands.
Angela Eagle is still doing jellyfish impressions and hasn't found that backbone.
We STILL don't know who the fuck Owen Smith is?
Will Bliar's chicken's finally come home to roost?
The Cult of Momentum, rumbles on. We aren't quite sure who they actually vote for, but they seem to like their Dear Leader.
When will this country next have an opposition party?

Its kinda getting boring guys, we need some action now. End the Chicken Coup! The Tories are definitely out doing in the high drama stakes.

In the Purple Corner
Farage has gone! Hurrah. We hope only that he stays under that rock.
(Don't count on it. They'll wheel him out when they need publicity)
Will Leadsom be elected leader? Oh sorry, wrong party. I was getting confused for a second there.
Will they throw the cuckoo Carswell out? [:)]
Will they be able to find a less offensive leader than Farage who can unite them in their common goal of errrr..... yeah. That.
How long before one of their candidates has to apologise for something?

And I suppose I should ask, when will a50 be triggered....? And by whom?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2675432-Boris-outmaneovered-Et-tu-Gove-Corbyn-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-Continues? Previous thread 4

DC did not vote

I can't believe Liam Fox isn't my least favourite candidate.

For anything.

Conflicting reports on DC. One says his aide voted for him by proxy. Others say he didn't vote.

The new PM might well call a snap GE, but not for democratic reasons - if the Labour Party is still engaged in fractricidal fighting inside its own navel fluff.

Currently, only their absolute bedrock vote would turn out for Labour.
If the Tories are going to really slash benefits and privatise the remaining public services, they'd love a 100+ majority to give them totally clear Killing Fields, instead of the current 12.

It would also squash questions of legitimacy over the 20 or so Tory seats where police are investigating if their expenses exceeded the legal limit.

I still can't believe that it is Labour in collapse, when it is the Tories who made the most horrendous series of cockups, entirely for personal careerism and with such damaging economic / trade upheaval.

So what, out of morbid curiosity, would happen if the new PM called a snap GE, and Labour had to go with JC and actually won? Just playing devil's advocate, of course.

may 165

With the LibDems pushing No Brexit and a GE being an opening for UKIP, do you really think they'd take that chance? I can't imagine they will.

JC would press the red button immediately because he's all about "the will of the people". So probably no better a scenario than if we end up with Loathsome.

I can't say May coming in first would be a huge shock. But things can change dramatically over the next vote.

May 165
Leadsom 66
Gove 48
Crabb 34
Fox 16

So Fox is out, no surprise. What will Crabb do ? I can't see Gove or Leadsom dropping out.

All the other put together 164...

has happened before and changed though

Interesting to note that even after talking babies, Leadsom is still in second.

You can't call snap elections any more.

So Fox is out, and with enough potential transfers to put Crabb ahead of Gove.

Unlikely to transfer to Crabb.

I wouldn't be surprised at moves to transfer votes to Gove to take out Loathsom.

We shall see.

Crabb n Gove. Weren't they Draco Malfoy's mates?

It is worrying that I'm seeing Leadsom as a bigger problem right now than Gove.

I don't think Gove will ever get leader if it goes to membership but Leadsom might.

Fox and Crabb are on opposite sides, if Crabb drops out, his support would likely go to May, unless the MPs are trying to keep things interesting.
Fox votes will probably go to Gove unless he's also pissed them off.

Weren't they Draco Malfoy's mates?

I think they were a bit unsavoury even for him, weren't they?

BBC assessment:

1. Theresa May’s lead is so big as to raise questions about how viable it would be to elect anyone else as leader. She has won the backing of 50% of Tory MPs, and is bound to pick up more support as the voting goes on. (For example, we heard Ken Clarke say today that he would vote for Stephen Crabb before switching to May.)

2. Stephen Crabb may come under pressure to drop out. He got twice as many votes as Liam Fox, but it is hard to see any of the Fox votes going to him and so there is a chance that, if he stays in the ballot, he could see his vote share fall on Thursday - which would be embarrasing.

3. Michael Gove seems to have little chance of catching Andrea Leadsom. Like Liam Fox he is a hawkish leaver, but even if all the Fox votes were to go to him (quite a big if) he would still not have as many votes as Andrea Leadsom. He has indicated that he won’t drop out, but it is not as if he has not U-turned already quite dramatically in this contest.

4. It is almost inevitable that the contest will end up with the party members having to decide between May and Leadsom. Leadsom’s performance was better than many people expected, and it will probably quash any speculation about whether she should stand aside to allow May to become prime minister without a membership ballot.

Interesting/petrifying/past-performance-no-guarantee tweet from Faisal Islam:

"But the last three Tory leadership contests (in Opposition) have not seen the leader after the first ballot win:"

click through for graphic twitter.com/faisalislam/status/750380936336904192

Political editor at Buzzfeed:
Leadsom supporters terrified other MPs (ie May supporters) will now move to stop her reaching the final two by voting tactically for Gove.

I was more thinking that if Crabb is in spitting distance of Gove, there might be movement in the votes to get rid of Gove in the second round.

May seems so safe that tactical voting will be attractive.

Crabb did pretty well givrn his profile.

A Conservative MP suggested to me earlier that most, if not all, Crabb supporters wd back Theresa May if he were to withdraw from the race

I guess it depends who the Tories want to eliminate most, Gove or Leadsom.

Both so awful it hardly matters.