To think we're not going to brexit?

[SandysMom]

Thoughts?

I am convinced...

Quote on the BBC website this morning about the Brussels meeting.
Britain, instead of ruling the waves, is now waiving the rules, with regard to leaving.

Thoughts?

That you started this thread as a bunfight and nothing more, especially as you haven't said anything else.

We've basically entered a period of brinkmanship, game theory, prisoner's dilemma and any other games of bluff you can think of. Who'll blink first?

How important is free access to the EU market and what are we prepared to accept to get that?

If the referendum is non-binding, then why has DC resigned? Why has he not set up a debate in parliament about the result, and used that time to ensure that the electorate really get a chance to hear all the arhuments, for and against. The there'd be a vote, and most MPs would vote to remain and there you are, still IN.

So why had DC run away, in such a cowardly fashion? He set it all up, and now it's gone wrong he's run away and is blaming everyone else. He's got no sense of honour, responsibility, and certainly no courage.

sorenjnail "what will leaving be like?"

That all depends on the deal that gets made.

At the moment, we are not in the strongest negotiating position. Despite the 'Leave' rhetoric about what a great bargaining position the UK is in, no-one, actually, expected the vote to go the way it did. We are not in a great bargaining position.

Ironically, precisely those things that were claimed as assets by 'Leave' are now things that weaken out bargaining position. We are hugely vulnerable because out primary force in our economy, the finance sector, relies on access to the EU (and, as people keep telling me, being outside the Euro).

No-one knows what it's going to be like outside the EU because no-one knows, no-one, what sort of deal might be hammered out with the EU.

I think free movement is the very least important thing in the whole of this.

Remember the webchat on Mumsnet, where neutral economists foresaw a double recession? First, triggered by uncertainty; second one (worse), triggered by the shape of the deal made? Well, there was massive uncertainty about what the second would look like.

No-one knows what post-exit will look like. A major worry is that I have , is if we have a Conservative Party team that wants to put short-term above long-term (and hold out for restriction of movement), we will lose out on terms absolutely necessary to the longer-term economy.

A week ago, I would not have thought such short-sighted stupidity and cupidity were possible. Now, I'm not so sure.

The there'd be a vote, and most MPs would vote to remain and there you are, still IN

Don't you think there'd be something of an issue if 'the people' voted to leave but their elected representatives voted to stay?

Basically, what our economy needs is a passport for the finance sector and to stay out of the Eurozone. It generates one tenth of our tax revenue alone, before you even start looking at all the other ways it feeds into the economy.

The EU knows this. Many of the countries we are negotiating with would welcome that sector re-locating outside of the UK into Europe.

We also need continued access to the single market.

Free movement is an utter irrelevance to our economy.

And we have no plan in place for these negotiations; no consensus on the shape of a plan; and a sizeable chunk of the population who think that limiting movement is their top priority and will thus be exerting (silent or not so silent) pressure for that to be top of the bargaining agenda.

The situation is insane.

You know, there was no consensus amongst the economists (who were cited by the experts who came for the Mumsnet webchat) about how bad, or how long, the post-Brexit "recession" would be. The projections were alarming, frankly. But I am now worrying that they weren't as bad as this could get.

If you haven't read the webchat, now is probably going to be a good time.

Boris Johnson - whose cupidity and short-termism was a large factor in this mess - looks like becoming PM. He's been a busy little bunny since Friday. While we've been worrying, he's been rubbing his hands thinking: "It's an ill wind that blows a fat pig like me no good." He's organised a group behind him and he's hired Lynton "I use racism to get my guys elected" Crosby to handle his campaign. He has The Sun behind him.

Do we really, really want more of the same with Boris Johnson? Have we learned nothing from all this? The man is provably unsuitable to put our interests above his own and his carpet-bagger friends.

We should be protesting about this man. He should be in prison, for lying to the electorate, for criminal damage to the economy: not running the country and negotiating any future deal.

of course we aren't.

now that the reality has set in and people are panicking and calling for a repoll we'll vote in.

Moral of the story - people are stupid, politicians are liars and 10 minutes research would have prevented all this

Seriously, Boris Johnson's suppose 'Unity Team' ticket is a unity between Boris Johnson's self-interests, Rupert Murdoch's business interests, and a bunch of conscience-less, failed politicians.

Rupert Murdoch's business interests are not iidentical with the national interest: it doesn't matter to him if the economy in the UK tanks over all provided that he has a monopoly on media outlets.

Boris Johsnon has actually proved he puts self-interest above national interest. That is a proven fact now. It is not as though we can say we do not know that the loveable, lying clown is an actual danger to the national economy. He has amply demonstrated this.

We need to be protesting loudly about these people being in charge of negotiating any future deal with the EU.

It's not a dystopian fantasy: this is our reality right now.

We CANNOT afford to let inertia and passivity set in.

We need to let the Conservative Party understand they are committing electoral suicide by appointing Boris Johnson.

At the moment, the Opposition is in a shambles. We can't, at the moment, rely on them for an opposition to this.

The media - that delivered us into this situation - are going to deliver us Boris Johnson.

We really, really need to protest. No more sleep-walking.

Right. That's way too much ranting from me. I'm angrier than I've ever been in my entire life. I'm going to try and channel it into something else.

I think the issue is that no one seems willing or able to lead a Brexit.

There's no "issue" there. There are plenty of people who are more than willing and capable, but there have only been two working days since the result was announced last Friday! I am very keen to see the Brexit process get started, but obviously the right person needs to be chosen carefully and without a rush.

I believe Britain is in a strong negotiating position, despite the stance from some EU leaders at first. It's in everyone's best interests to come to an acceptable agreement on all sides.

user1465823522

There isn't going to be a re-poll.

for lying to the electorate, for criminal damage to the economy: not running the country and negotiating any future deal

I thought you were talking about certain EU politicians for a moment...

itinery

He's serving the extremely useful purpose of deflecting criticism from Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson is not being held to account for his part in this.

I find it stunning that media is focusing on Farage, not Johnson, an that Johnson is still being permitted to be seen as a credible politician. FFS, if he PM during this, he is a statesman.

We are going to make ourselves the World Joke if Boris Johnson wins the leadership contest.

Sorry. Fury and pain are doing horrendous things to my typing.

There's re so many people who voted Leave saying they now regret it. I've heard people saying this myself and I've seen it in TV/radio. There main reason is that 1) they lied about the 350million going to the NHS 2) they didn't realise they would win and it was a vote against the establishment.

I wish we could have another vote tomorrow. I think the result would be different because they would be voting for what they actually want.

Honestly, I think we're already an international joke.

They'd be laughing more if it hadn't also affected world markets.

Still, it's great for satire if you don't mind being the butt of the joke

I think we will be leaving; not sure when but I think the rest of the EU are so pissed off with UK now that they will try and make an example of us and give us a bum deal to ensure other EU states won't want to leave. I think the EU will try and punish the UK.

Boris Johnson, 2013:

“If we left the EU… we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure…
Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans?"
That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU.”

It was always just about Boris wanting to be PM.
He is the master conman, but his lies unravel eventually. He was sacked from the Times for lying - very rare a journalist gets sacked for that.

Boris expected a Remain win and then he would ride in to unite the Tory Party.
He totally miscalculated. That's why he has no Exit plan.
He may still get his reward and be PM. However, I doubt he can con professional EU politicians like he conned the Uk electorate.

My DH has just got back from France. The feeling over there is that the UK can fuck off, and the sooner the better..

I don't think we'll Brexit now either, purely because those political figures who were pushing it are now stepping away as fast as they can and talking about "informal talks" etc rather than getting stuck in and getting the process started. It's a disaster either way - if we go or if we don't, we'll be the laughing stock of Europe and the world. Read this...

From the Guardian's comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

Boris Johnson has hired Lynton Crosby?

The person who gave the world dog whistle politics.

I think everything is so unpredictable and chaotic right now that virtually anything could happen. If Remain had won with such a narrow margin, I would be fearing that leaving was still a distinct possibility and that a huge surge of support for UKIP might be imminent. When the country is so divided, Johnson and Gove are subdued and afraid whilst Farage makes a utter fool of himself in front of the world, Leave promises unravel and Leavers express regret in the national news, Scotland and Northern Ireland are so furious - I can't believe that anyone can blithely say 'haha, we won, get used to it because we're definitely leaving'. Look around. No one can state anything with any confidence. Look how many people are angry - not petulant, not throwing tantrums or making a fuss - but furious and determined to make a powerful stand. Don't imagine that Brexit will happen easily, that it is a sure thing, that it will in any way resemble what has been promised should it eventually come to pass. Whatever happens, the repercussions will be felt for years. Don't you dare tell us to suck it up or calm down or think that you can laugh it off because you got a 4% majority against a backdrop of utter bedlam.

BigChosFrenzy: He may still get his reward and be PM. However, I doubt he can con professional EU politicians like he conned the Uk electorate.

Yes. And this is precisely why he MUST NOT be Prime minister. I'm serious. We have to stop being so passive, depressed, and accepting of this.