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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

OP posts:
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Felascloak · 27/06/2016 20:31

Fucking hell. I despair.
With any luck Chilcot can lob another hand grenade into the labour party and put paid to that

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 20:32

GingerIvy they.are.having.a.laugh with Mendelson surely ShockShock
It's like Liam Fox running ...
Short memories in politics eh about lack of integrity?

As mentioned elsewhere, chilcott report out v soon and there's speculation that will be toxic for anyone connected with Blair years....

I kinda wistfully hoped Jo Cox's husband would be persuaded to stand for that seat....

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:34

I'm pretty sure the Mandelson thing must be some Twitter japester having a laugh.

NigellasGuest · 27/06/2016 20:35

The parties at a GE can choose their own Mandate. So the Libs have said already they will not invoke A50 and will take the referendum as advisory only

if this happens, I will vote LibDem for the first time ever.

Felascloak · 27/06/2016 20:36

Linking this just for the lolz and in case anyone else here loves GoT as much as me
m.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/4q3m7k/david_miliband_spotted_at_heathrow/?utm_source=mweb_redirect&compact=true

Arborea · 27/06/2016 20:36

@Breadandwine he was linked to by my Facebook friends a number of times in the run up to the referendum. It is as Adam Wagner said on the rightsinfo.org blog: there was too much factsplaining in the run up, and Brexit opponents need a different tack to deal with the lies and misinformation that's being peddled.

Sadly I think there's a lot of counter intuitive reactions to Brexit by leave voters, just as many of whom are too stubborn to change their views because to do so would look like weakness, as there are 'buyer's remorse' types.

Finally, I am gravely concerned that Teresa May's opposition to the ECHR and HRA means that things could get even worse if she were to become PM. It pains me to say it, but I suspect that it might be better for the country as a whole for Bozo to have to do his own dirty work.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:37

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 20:38

Professor Michael Dougan analyses the EU referendum debate
One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s “dishonesty on an industrial scale”, as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 20:39

Sorry posted too soon.

Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum?

PLASTERED ALL OVER JUST ABOUT EVERY EU REFERENDUM THREAD ON MN ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LAST WEEK.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:41

The problem I see with the GE is that the same people feel alienated from the government and are going to vote for whoever wants the Brexit. Because they are STILL alienated from the government, and will have just seen the vote they won attempted to be overturned/backed away from in the GE by the No Brexit ticket. You may see some voting to put Leave through because they are not happy with a democratic vote being ignored, or because they don't see anything "sky is falling" happening, so may feel it's going to be fine and go with it. And then of course, any shit from the EU will fire up anti-EU feelings (it wouldn't take much).

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:42

Teresa May can't be trusted. She cares nothing for people at all. I hope to God she is not PM. Ever.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 20:43

This was Leave.Eu (the Farage camp) official response to those threatening action about the lies..

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?
MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:46

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.

Crumbs!

Oh dear.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:48

Obi that UKIP Arron Banks guy really is the scummiest of humans. I feel unclean whenever I see a picture of a him, or hear his voice, or see something he's tweeted. He's like a hybird of Kevin the Teenager and Patrick Bateman.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 20:48

Breadandwine, I saw that Michael Dougan video before the vote. It was good - but it seems to me that so many Leavers put their hands over their ears and shouted la la la....

They would have rejected it as 'project fear' if they listened to it at all. Which is a shame really - because he really knows what he's talking about.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 20:51

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.

Sorry, for a second there I thought you said that Peter Mandelson was being considered as a possible leadership candidate.

Can you confirm you or Laura K are on crack please as the alternative is even more farcial than most of the Brexit saga so far.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:52

10,000 people in Parliament Square with just 24 hours notice.

In support of Corbyn. Tweeted by John McDonnell, with picture.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:53

Red it was on the Guardian site.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:53

'Someone's made a fake tweet that claims I'm reporting MPs suggest Mandelson as leader - It's not a real tweet, and not a true story'

Phew!

Valentine2 · 27/06/2016 20:56

floisme
I reassure you that I am not taking it as a game. My posts and the laughter in there was sarcastic and I have laughed myself to crying over this oncoming storm. I just keep watching thread after thread on here to clutch some straw.
I have posted this before, I think the night of the referendum results. But do you remember the laughter of Tom Hanks in Money Pit? That's what I am laughing like.

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 20:57

Grin @ David Militant.

Big rally for Corbyn at the moment - sadly, we know lots of people voting for something doesn't mean it's the right thing.

Teresa May is awful. I'd actually prefer Osborne because the Lords throw out everything he proposes (exaggeration).

MunchCrunch01 · 27/06/2016 20:57

Corbyn has no respect for labour history, he's prepared to rip the PLP apart. I disliked him before but he's plumbed the depths today. Whoah a flash mob - that's not democracy that's mob rule.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 21:00

Wait. If Osborne is PM and not Chancellor, does that mean he has to keep his hands off the budget? lol

DorynownotFloundering · 27/06/2016 21:00

Much as I'd hate him to be PM I am starting to agree with letting him (Boris) sort out his own mess - why should anyone else commit career suicide mopping up his shit.

God I need wine but can't as being Mum Taxi later Sad

ladyjadey · 27/06/2016 21:06

I'm finding all of this very interesting indeed, and some of the comments are thought provoking and insightful. I'm only on page 4 of this thread so far but would like to add my thoughts.

Initially as someone who voted remain and never thought for a minute that brexit would win, I was first gobsmacked, then depressed, then angry.

Since then I have thought about the situation since DC resigned and left a radioactive package for someone else to unwrap. It's a real catch 22 as I see it. The EU are refusing to negotiate unless we invoke article 50, there is currently no one who will do so. If anyone accepts this parcel they are undoubtedly committing political suicide.

Seeing as how there's no one rushing in....... We, the public, get to watch and wait. As we do, we see the negative side of the deal. We see the pound plummet, everything cost more and begin to unpick the lies we were fed.

So what happens then? A second referendum without the protest votes? A general election with new leaders to the big two? I personally like JC but can't see him winning over the people because he's just too left for the majority. If BJ wins leadership he will fall on his face. I'm not sure how TM would do if she won but I don't see her having a huge fan club.

I think that we will end up staying in the EU regardless. Unless they physically boot us out which would open a whole new can of worms.