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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:36

Aren't there 3 credit rating groups - one downgraded us Friday, and another today? That was my understanding.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 19:36

Ooo anyone watching BBC news? Tory Leave guy, massively walking back the leave pledges... Says they have to respect 48% and moderate precious plans....

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 19:37

But the outlook is negative

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 19:37

Girl I understand your sentiments however I think there will be a GE either before or after A50. It would be I think better that it was before. At least then there is a chance that we can go ahead in a planned manner which ever path was choosen

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:38

The credit downgrading was always going to happen. It's what happens when there's instability, and I suspect the government and the banks fully expected it. The key thing is to get things moving, plot a course, so there is a path we're following - it's the instability/the uncertainty that makes things worse, from what I can gather.

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 19:40

I'm definitely fighting my Tory Schadenfreude and "I told you so" smugness. Because I know this is fucking it up for everyone, and having been right will not making things any less shit for me and my family.

All of that to end up in the EEA, best case scenario... what a waste.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:42

Three credit group ratings.

This latest one was a 2 notch down grade. Not just one notch.

BUT ITS ALL GOING TO BE FINE NOW WE ARE INDEPENDANT.

My local head of Leave.Eu was quoted 3 hours ago as saying:

"For many years, there has been a huge chunk of our population that voiced concerns over some aspects of EU membership.

"These people were ignored, sneered at, and derided as uneducated, bigoted and uninformed.

"Last Thursday, these people finally got their say, and boy, did they shout.

"Come Friday morning and the inevitable and apocalyptic minor economic shock arrived. The stock markets and currency briefly collapsed and the doom merchants rejoiced.

"But by tea-time, buoyed by the reassuring and soothing tones of Mark Carney (Bank of England governor), they had stabilised and recovered.

"There will be other aftershocks but Friday showed us that we should not be overly concerned.

You know when your Mum says, if you haven't got anything good to say, don't say anything? Well

....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Sums it up thoroughly.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:42

Could they actually have a GE in less than 6 months?? If they're looking at A50 around Christmas to time with fiscal year, that's putting a bit of a deadline on it. And I don't see that they'd be able to do another vote about something AND the GE. Would they do it together? Can they even?

So many questions.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:44

I do have reservations about the EU though. They have vastly changed their remit since they started. I dont' like the direction they are headed.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:44

Could they actually have a GE in less than 6 months

Yes.

Short answer to that.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:46

I do have reservations about the EU though.

Name someone who does.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:46

doesn't*

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 19:46

Daniel Hannan on tv saying that a trade deal with the EU involving free movement would be just fine, all he ever wanted was European courts not having authority in the UK

WHAT THE FUCK

Do these people have no shame

monkey36 · 27/06/2016 19:47

Well I never. A democratic vote and win for leave should be respected. To do otherwise is politically unacceptable.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:48

Red I wasn't sure. I would assume they would have to open up voter registration, allow for postal voting and such, and some campaigning. That must take some time.

Quite frankly, if they have a GE, they are going to be opening it up for UKIP in a big way, especially if there is any indication that they might have another referendum or are backtracking in any way on the Brexit at that point. Even LibDems going on a No Brexit ticket is liable to bring out a lot of people for the Leave side to reinforce the vote.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:49

monkey I have to agree. I think the more we mess around here, the more money we waste, the more the EU gets irritable and less likely to be agreeable in negotiations, and the more divided the people become.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:49

Cameron must have said about 15 times - the outcome of the referendum must be accepted.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:51

Because things aren't chaotic enough, the prat brigade joins in. Hmm

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tony-blair-dont-rule-out-a-second-referendum-on-eu-membership-a3281061.html

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 19:52

My preferred option is that the MPs we elected to represent us, the vast majority of whom do not think we should leave the EU refuse to pass an Act of Parliament to enable the Article 50 to be invoked.

That should trigger a general election.

Ken Clarke reckons there is a majority of 350 against Brexit in the Commons.

I want our MPs to stick up for us and refuse to be bound by the results of an advisory referendum that was always about nothing more that Tory party internal cohesion.

To break up the UK and take a big shit on the Good Friday Agreement in the cause of strengthening the Tory party was an outrageous abuse of our democracy.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 19:52

I'm scared of a GE - Nige would get a seat. In fact loads of UKIP would.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:53

This is in the article,, but the headline is all people will see: "As I'm looking at it here, I can't see how we can do that. "But, you know, the point is, why rule anything out right now? As I say, you are going to have a reality to test yourself against."

Can they not gag him?

UnderTheGreenwoodTree · 27/06/2016 19:54

My preferred option is that the MPs we elected to represent us, the vast majority of whom do not think we should leave the EU refuse to pass an Act of Parliament to enable the Article 50 to be invoked.

But YY to that. That's what I've been praying for all day. I think it was Ken Clarke who referred to that in Parliament this afternoon.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:54

Under and I think if they have a GE, that is exactly what will happen. It will backfire spectacularly.

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 19:54

But is everyone assuming a Remain would win an election? Imagine if they lost and we had an extreme right Govt and definitely out Shock

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 19:54

Cameron must have said about 15 times - the outcome of the referendum must be accepted.

He is the least influential politician in Europe at this point. What he says is pretty much irrelevant.