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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 19:56

I have visions of 17 million voting for UKIP Shock

Badders123 · 27/06/2016 19:58

I think that may be where we are headed tbh

noblegiraffe · 27/06/2016 19:58

He said that the outcome of the referendum must be accepted while not pressing the red button that will actually start the ball rolling saying it's for the next government, thus putting the actual acceptance of the referendum at least 2 months away and in someone else's hands.

Did anyone else see that Oliver Letwin has been put in charge of Brexit?

Chalalala · 27/06/2016 19:59

I don't know about that. A good proportion of the Leave vote were probably marginal decisions, it's a big step from that to voting UKIP. Especially now that it's becoming clear how dangerous and disruptive the Brexit option is.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 19:59

I'm not scared of a GE.

I never thought I'd be glad the referendum on laternative vote didn't pass, but I am now.

FPTP will protect us from any major UKIP gains.

You can't really argue that an advisory referendum should be implemented without recourse to a GE without looking like an opportunist when it comes to democracy.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:59

I'm scared of a GE - Nige would get a seat. In fact loads of UKIP would.

Likewise.

SpaceKablooie · 27/06/2016 20:00

Ginger, I'm perfectly happy to accept the outcome of the referendum.

I accept that 52% of those voting in the non-legally binding advisory referendum voted to Leave the EU after a ridiculously mis-leading campaign, the main promises of which are now being denied one by one.

I do not accept the fact that we should now just give up on our country though.

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 20:01

GingerIvy I'm with you, I think MPs who tried to overturn referendum result at this point would have their asses kicked in GE by UKIP putting up people in clown suits...
From a quick peruse of wiki Grin it seems to be 25 days to call election

I think the only elegant way is parties say they respect decision, but need a GE is then basically then on in/out lines.... That's only way to potentially end up with a Remain result but say it's been done democratically.

But I'm with you Under I'm fearful of a GE and the swing towards leave candidates, under a banner "we're the only ones who listen to you"

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 20:02

Do these people have no shame

No, really, no. In a way that thought is worse than the decision to leave. We'll end up becoming a tax haven.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:05

Obi Wow. 25 days. That's scary fast. Cameron said a few things today that indicated they weren't going to call a GE if they could avoid it. He brought up the whole "legislation to finish term was done for a reason, and we feel that reason still exists" or something similar to that.

If they do an aboutface on this, I am going to hide inside for awhile, as it will get ugly.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:07

Did anyone else see that Oliver Letwin has been put in charge of Brexit?

Yes. The man is a fucking liability!

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 20:08

Chalala look at the papers today. Leave is being presented as a giant success.
If you don't have shares and you aren't having a foreign holiday this year, do u care less that that's going pear shaped? What does rating downgrade mean to the man in street? (I mean right at this minute.....)

I think a lot of Leave voters are keeping quiet about it and will vote that way again, no matter how many times you ask. Also, as the sky hasn't fallen in, I've had Leave relatives say "see I told you, it's all ok isn't it?" Ask them about Scotland they say, nah, never happen. Until some consequences start kicking in (beyond those people on receiving end of racist hate now Angry) then I don't think vast majority of Leavers would change their mind.

Sure, there's a handful of ppl like that Sun ex-editor saying, oh I've got buyers remorse but I wonder how many wobbly remainers are thinking, Erm, this is okay actually.... Sad

PattyPenguin · 27/06/2016 20:10

I am hoping against hope that someone in the Tory party hates Oliver Letwin and has handed him a hospital pass so that when the Brexit negotiations go pear-shaped, they can make him the scapegoat.

clutching at straws

StillSmallVoiceOfQualms · 27/06/2016 20:11

While I'm scared of the potential gains UKIP would get in a GE, I'm tending to agree that it's the fairest option. Not to revoke the decision (however much I might regret that, to do it all again just makes a mockery of the whole thing) but to have a say in how it gets implemented.

I shudder to think of Farage strutting around if he actually has a seat in Parliament though (although you'd never notice that he doesn't at present)

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:13

Not familiar with Oliver Letwin. Confused

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 20:20

The parties at a GE can choose their own Mandate. So the Libs have said already they will not invoke A50 and will take the referendum as advisory only

The Torys would ofcourse keep pushing us towards extinction and the Labour party? Who knows if they get someone with some balls and conviction they may also stand on ignoring the vote - or find a middle ground of another ref or a full vote in the commons instead

I'm not worried about UKIP - or their fringe right wing friends. They can't win enough seats to influence. It's the Tory nutters that concern me

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:20

Letwin's a racist idiot who disposed of parliamentary papers in a park bin and really, really wants to see the NHS privatised.

MitzyLeFrouf · 27/06/2016 20:22

There's talk of Farage getting a peerage. Now I've always been anti House of Lords but if ever there was a reason to speed up its demise it would be the advent of one Lord Farage.

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:22

BREAKING: Understand Peter Mandelson is being suggested by MPs as a potential candidate to oppose Corbyns in a leadership contest.

Breadandwine · 27/06/2016 20:24

Professor Michael Dougan analyses the EU referendum debate
One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s “dishonesty on an industrial scale”, as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum? Shock

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:24

Mitzy ah, thanks. I've not heard his name before.

Corbyn just spoke to a group of people - supposed to be about 4K of them? supporters.

Felascloak · 27/06/2016 20:27

Oh fgs they will be wheeling Bliar out next.
I am expecting David Militant to stand though. DH suggested last night he could take Jo Cox's seat Sad Confused

Felascloak · 27/06/2016 20:27

Militant was an autocorrect Bliar was not!

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:29

Felascloak Blair has already had tons of people on his facebook asking him to come back and take over Labour leadership, begging him and saying "all is forgiven, please come back and lead us."

GingerIvy · 27/06/2016 20:30

David Milliband pissed off to the states. Is he actually back? Honestly, I don't like him, he's too slick. Don't trust him. Although admittedly, there are precious few I do trust.