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Brexit

Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

977 replies

CommanderShepard · 25/06/2016 19:10

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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ClashCityRocker · 27/06/2016 19:08

Yup, it certainly feels like we're in control.

Why is no one taking control?

I don't even know what to think. My heart is still hoping for a twist that alloas us to remain, but my head thinks that going back on this now would also be a disaster.

I think my best outcome at the minute would be leaving the eu but remaining in the eea with free movement of people retained.

Valentine2 · 27/06/2016 19:08

More ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/27/pound-shares-markets-brexit-crisis-osborne-lew-business-live

Fuck you all Leavers. You morons

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:09

This is all making me feel sick again.

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:10

We've just been downgraded from AAA to AA credit rating by Standard and Poor.

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 19:12

The first camp to cave and to launch negotiations will be the one that can stand uncertainty least.

PhilPhilConnors · 27/06/2016 19:15

Valentine, it would be funny, but it's going to fuck over everyone, not just the leave voters.

DoinItFine · 27/06/2016 19:17

Supporting markets and supporting the pound are not the same thing. Confused

ObiWanCannelloni · 27/06/2016 19:17

RiceCT I'm unsure - I think financial shit storm and big business may force issue... But agree with you I don't think constitutionally EU can do anything

noblegiraffe that's really interesting (the bits I could follow) thank you - my overriding feeling was "what fucking idiot would offer a referendum about something so complex?"

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 19:19

DoinIt Agreed. This seems the only way out of the conundrum that will satisfy most of the public (I am including the large number of Leavers who now have Bregret) Highlight pros and cons. Establish a plan of action that can become a mandate

Now we just need some parties who can fight it...oops wait a minute (tho I have hope Labour and the Torys will be ready by the end of August) The thing is even if they triggered A50 we would more than likely be having an election by Spring anyway. This way it can be used positively rather than continue the infighting and splits

Figmentofmyimagination · 27/06/2016 19:20

Sharing the bizarre thrill of the wtf'ness and sheer hubris of it all while reminding myself that for me personally, my husband and his employees, this could not be looking more crap. I think I'm hysterical due to not really having slept since Thursday evening ......

VoyageOfDad · 27/06/2016 19:20

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

chocomochi · 27/06/2016 19:20

FFS, credit rating downgrade. How much more bad news will we be getting. What have the leavers done to this country in the short space of 4 days?

HalleLouja · 27/06/2016 19:22

I thought we got downgraded on Friday. Or was I hallucinating?

RiceCrispieTreats · 27/06/2016 19:23

Market downgrading is a clear message from the markets for somebody in Westminster to take responsibility.

Unfortunately, there don't appear to be any responsible politicians there atm.

Showmethewaytogohome · 27/06/2016 19:23

DoinIt Question is now - how can an election be triggered - obvs Cameron can resign the government. There can be a no confidence vote in parliament to push this or he can do so himself - both unlikely atm

The only other this is if the Torys can not form a government in September and a no confidence then? Any other ways?

colouringinagain · 27/06/2016 19:26

This thread is a lifesaver. I'm really struggling to concentrate on anything else at the moment. Can't believe Boris' comments this morning compared to the actual state of the £ and stock market.

It feels like some crazy UK political tv drama. Except its actually happening Sad.

I kind of symapthise with Corbyn as he was unanimously elected by Labout party members (rather than MPs) and a lot of the them are prob Leave votes.

But at the same time, I would love a sensible grown-up to take charge. (Yvette Cooper was good in parliament today...)

As you say, next 48 hours will be interesting.

Girlgonewild · 27/06/2016 19:30

I don't think an election would help. The referendum result would still be there and we don't want Corbyn in or worse. We will just have to negotiate some kind of deal.

BJ writing in today's Telegraph suggests that will be along EEA lines - free movement of persons and goods,. have never understood anyone wanting that position - it means have to comply with all kinds of EU rules but having no input into them whereas now we do. I can understand utterly out of the EU, customs duties on exports nad imports no rights to move freely between the EU nations, totally out stance and the totally in stance but not the EEA stance norway has with free movement of people which is the worst of all worlds.

SparklesandBangs · 27/06/2016 19:30

The politicians ask the country to decide

The country mainly ignorant of what the question was/really meant by a majority vote to take back control

The politicians run a mile trampling on each other in their bid to escape after all they don't want to be left with the hot potato that is Article 50

Only poor friendless Jeremy remains and no one will ever pass the hot potato to hi .

tinkertanya · 27/06/2016 19:31

Britain lost her top-notch credit rating almost exactly 12 hours after chancellor George Osborne claimed that Britain’s economy was in decent shape to face the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote

That is happening
If you think it's easy to come out of the economic slump occurring dream on
As you dream remember the Roman Empire
Remember Greece was once a rich country. At least they got the EU to bail them. Hmm

StillSmallVoiceOfQualms · 27/06/2016 19:34

Just wanted to say that I've been following this thread avidly - some great comments, useful links and more than anything else none of the vindictive name-calling on all the other Brexit threads (well, apart from directed at Johnson and his little friend...)

Really appreciating everyone's contributions (and reading out choice bits to DH to make me sound knowledgeable). One thought on the EU resolution is that they want to set precedent here in case any other countries try to follow suit - and the precedent they want to establish is that if you hold a referendum then expect to have to act on it pretty sharpish.

I'm with whoever it was who said they were feeling sick and scared - but strangely thrilled at the same time.

SparklesandBangs · 27/06/2016 19:34

Oh a sensible grown up to take charge - yes please and can it be a woman too, not sure if I care of which persuasion just a strong person who is willing to stand up and fight for Great Britain.

Maybe go handbags at dawn with Merkel.

All the men and the Krankie woman won't to do is return to a feudal system or similar or tiny states.

Floisme · 27/06/2016 19:35

Valentine2 I really object to your last 2 posts. This isn't a game, even if Cameron and Johnson have behaved like it is. And as pp says, it's not just the leavers who would go down.

SwedishEdith · 27/06/2016 19:35

AA credit rating is same as France

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_credit_rating

RedToothBrush · 27/06/2016 19:36

It feels like an episode of Dad's Army where they are all running around like headless chickens screaming

DON'T PANIC

I want to cry