Anyone else really worried now?

[MrsBlackthorn]

My work has started quietly drawing up contingency plans for if Brexit happens. Same at DH's work. Could mean lots of jobs moving to Germany and Ireland at both our firms. We're already seeing far fewer people investing or spending money.

I'm bloody terrified. Could lose my job. House could end up in negative equity. And for what?

I don't even think it's "project fear" from the government anymore... News today showed investors are taking money out of the UK faster than anytime since the crash. People with "skin in the game" voting with their money.

I understand that for lots of people the EU referendum isn't about money. however, because of a lot of it leaving, stopping coming in, or just simply being worth less... Well that leaves us screwed for a very long time. Fewer jobs. Less tax money coming in - so less money for the NHS and so on. So even if we 'take back control', of what exactly. what will we be 'in control' of?

I'm really worried about "Leave" happening and me and my family being utterly f*ed in a few months time as a result. Has the country lost its mind?

Anyone else worried about where this leaves us?

Dihannah if you're thinking about your children and competing you need to vote to remain - leave will trigger a recession and mess up the jobs market for several years.

Of course we don't/can't have a resession whilst we are in the EU can we? ...

Oh wait....

It is absolutely foolish to walk right into a recession which is almost guaranteed to cause a recession if there wasn't one, and deepen/exacerbate one if the signs were already there.

Leaving Europe will bugger our economy for several years, and it will happen quickly.

You might argue this is a price worth paying (I don't), but the Leave camp are simply being dishonest when they tell people everything will be fine and carry on as they are now.

They won't.

People won't invest in the UK. Capital is leaving already due to fear of Brexit. Result: lower returns in savings and pension funds.

Companies will move operations to countries which are in the EU. Result: many jobs lost in the UK.

Fewer people working = higher benefit bills and lower tax take, so less money for the NHS and everything else.

Trade barriers being introduced with our main trade partners means fewer exports. Result: businesses turn over less, pay less tax and employ fewer people.

It is quite simply a lie to say there will not be significant negative impacts on our economy. This is certain to cause or deepen a recession, making very many people worse off for several years, and potentially for the very long term.

Exactly. If we stay there is still an enormous amount of work to do. But the risks of leaving are enormously higher. Of course everytime a respected economist,institute or whatever says this leave immediately start attacking them for being experts and therefore elitist . Or something.

It's like climate science - listen to the 99 (or in this case 90percent).

Of course everytime a respected economist,institute or whatever says this leave immediately start attacking them for being experts and therefore elitist . Or something

They aren't always right.

A large majority of economists and experts wanted us to join the Euro.

Good job we didn't!

If people want to leave for ideological reasons (sovereignty)I can respect that.

If people want to leave to curb immigration I can understand that ( though it seems no one is going to be expected to leave and we may very well agree to free movement to oil trade agreements).

But I cannot understand how anyone can say that leaving won't trigger a period of economic uncertainty which will almost certainly result in a recession. I mean, say it's worth it for sovereignty or whatever, but come on...

Dihannah your thinking about jobs and competition at higher levels based on language is correct. I've had a ring side seat watching this play out. I don't want to give enough specifics to our myself, but I watched some MBA recruiting into consulting and investment banking and I saw a handful of highly, highly intelligent, well educated Brits get passed over for Europeans who were lovely people, but not as quick witted or experienced. It was all down to "language skills." It has a happy ending though, the Brits all had to catch as catch can. They went into industry and all have worked their way up 15 years later. Waaay up (think CFO/managing director) for big companies everyone knows. But, in terms of starting out, getting a foot on the ladder, having a clean shot, they were hindered. I suppose native English speakers could all try harder with languages. Meanwhile, my personal, lived experience, is that you are not silly to vote out for these reasons.

Now, I do understand the argument that all these jobs are in London only because we are open and these service firms want an international mix of perspectives. It's the killing the golden goose argument. I think it is true to a point. I also think if we were out, there is no reason that we cannot choose to offer work permits for skilled people that the city really needs.

If we vote out (I don't think we will), I think the economic impact depends on our politicians after the vote. Do they blow the place up in a fit of pique because the populous had the temerity to vote against the MPs wishes? Or do they try in good faith to make the best of it?

If they do things to subvert the result of an out vote, it will lead to chaos within government as different factions descend into battling out with no leadership, no direction.

I suspect if we leave, Cameron will step down quickly ( he doesn't strike me as someone who will want to steer through choppy waters for the good of the party - he'll just get the hell out).

So a short but bloody leadership election with a BJ/Gove partnership in charge.

You could argue for a special election? I mean the situation in the UK would be so radically changed.

I work in manufacturing. The out arguments that I have listened to (and I'm talking about the pro out politicians) are proposing to abolish duties for imports for 2 years whilst new agreements are negotiated. But export tariffs will at best case stay as they are, worst case will go up because we have no bargaining power. This will kill my company stone dead.

The sector I am in is "dirty industry" and was virtually non existent after the thatcher era, everything went to China. I have to buy ALL my raw materials from China. In the last 5 years China has cottoned on to two things, that nobody else in the world makes the stuff I need, and that they are ruining their country by having poor environmental controls. So something I payed £15 per kg for 5 years ago now costs me £80 per kg and the price is still rising. Our cost of living is high because we are not self sufficient and getting higher. We have literally millions of skilled workers who's trades are being given away buy successive conservative governments because in the short term it is cheaper to import rather than manufacture, but we are giving away what made us a powerful economy and it is not realistic to think that a country our size with nothing o offer in terms of innovation will remain a large economy when we are over a barrel because we have to import our basics (steel, textiles, chemicals, food etc.)

Please please don't vote out.

I expect there will be a GE too. Labour are practically invisible these days so we'll end up with some combination of Boris and Gove - maybe even with Farage thrown in.

And they'll have to lead the negotiations. That thought scares me too - I don't trust any of them to prioritise anything other than their own careers.

Oh good heavens, back to square one on the project fear agenda. This thread has certainly run its course, Im just a tad miffed that it was started with the sole intention of fear lobbying on behalf of the remain vote rather than a desire to hear balanced views. No intention of reiterating how ridiculous the sky is falling remain camp claims are, just next time, please post, 'this is an election broadcast on behalf of the remain party' or perhaps title ' The Apocolypse is coming and its uneducated, poor people who are going to steal my cake.

You could argue for a special election? I mean the situation in the UK would be so radically changed.

BJ/Gove would be wise to call for a general election before Christmas. What with Labour as weak as they currently are, the Tories may well end up with a bigger majority than they have now!

If you're bored chris do feel free to go elsewhere .

Yes bridge I do think that might happen.

And whilst I'd not be keen on a BJ/Gove/ IDS government for ideological reasons, I would certainly have nothing to fear personally from that scenario.

Chris - this is not project fear, these are well founded analyses of the risks of leaving. In fact I find it very disturbing that no one can say the obvious - that there will be uncertainty, and therefore issues in the job market without being shouted down. This is basic! The question that is not resolved - is how bad, how long for - and whether you care more about other issues so you don't mind a few dodgy years.

Massive hypocrisy in any case on the 'fear' question given what Farage has been saying.

Stay or leave, both the opposing supporters will blame the recession on the result of the referendum. Whatever the result is. It's just another way for people who have acted hugely irresponsibly with this countries finances to blame us.

If a recession is already here. And murmurings in my industry are certainly saying so ..... that leaving won't accelerate something that's happened and staying won't prevent it.

I think what makes a decision like this so on fair on all of us is how badly we've been let down by professional politicians over the last 25 years.

Left or Right, people have felt bitter disappointment in their representatives, for quite some time.

That combined with our bankers and others top at the financial services have ran roughshod for so long knowing that those without will pay the bills and consequences make this whole thing a farce.

Really, in all honesty had any one spoken to individuals who are 'woohoo about the vote' who are voting with a sense of positivity? Because most people on the web, down the pub, your colleagues whatever, seem fed up and pissed off altogether.

I think people are questioning why our economy is still growing, and naturally worrying that it's about to stall.

I mean there doesn't seem to be any logic in it at the moment.

Honey - leaving will absolutely accelerate any recession.

Again the question is about how long and how deeply not if.

What do you base your thoughts that it will be neutral on?

Nearly - if a recession is going to happen if not already happening. Staying or leaving won't change that.

jellied this is actually not true. leaving will be an economic shock - at minimum for the short term. the question is how long for, not "if" and, if you believe it will be more stable in the future being part of the EU or not.
This is the debate, not whether there will be an economic impact of leaving.

if there is uncertainty the markets tend to react badly and companies don't invest. Not least because there will be no certainty about how they can trade for a few years.

The economy is growing quite nicely at the moment.

Why is that?

Maybe sensible working people and those who invest in British businesses realise there is nothing to fear from Brexit. Why? Because Brexit is just about the British Goverment elected by us being able to decide on the detail of what is best for the economy and Britain as a whole. Nothing else.

It is a bit surprising that George Osborne isn't celebrating the good economic news around at the moment. I wonder why?

www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jun/08/why-upbeat-uk-manufacturing-figures-have-silenced-osborne-increase-production-eu

milly - the asset flight has started. economic figures tend to be a few months behind anyways. The article itself says :
"To be sure, there are reasons to be a bit cautious about the ONS data. Monthly figures tend to be choppy. Cold weather in April boosted energy demand and there was a sharp jump in production of drugs, a notoriously volatile sector of manufacturing. The quarterly increase in production of 0.7% was less impressive than the monthly increase."

Are you Lord Haw-Haw reincarnated?

milly please explain why you think it's appropriate to compare me to a Nazi propagandist.

asset flight has been reported by the telegraph and others yesterday. news.sky.com/story/1708390/eu-osborne-warning-over-capital-flight-cost