The only way to get the EU to take the UK seriously is to vote to leave

[SpringingIntoAction]

Cameron tells us repeatedly that he wants to remain in a reformed EU.

Many others across the political divides also acknowledge the need for the EU to reform itself.

Some say that's why we need to remain in the EU - to change it from within.

I think the EU's refusal to engage with Cameron's plea for his EU reforms and the failure of his 'special deal' to achieve anything like the changes he originally said he wanted, show the EU is unwilling/incapable of reform.

I think the only way to get the EU to start taking our demands for reform seriously is to vote to leave.

They need to start imagining what the EU would be like without one of its largest funders - the UK. We do that by voting to leave.

I wouldn't rule out a second referendum after a Brexit vote and more (minor) concessions, actually. Remember it's what Boris initially suggested.

Springing, who would you like as Tory leader/PM? I'm guessing not Boris either!

These Remainers are making me think they'd rather live in a totalitarian state with untold misery just because they don't get their own way

Having a quick skim through, this comment struck a chord with me.

It does seem that there is a worry about the present Tory Gov, that is perhaps pushing some voters to remain just so they have the EU gov over us, I do not understand this logic.

I'm guessing not Boris either!

Correct

The thought of us leaving the EU would be un thinkable to Brussels of course they would make a u turn, and offer more.

One couldn't count on it, vote because of it, but Brexit could cause total collapse. Its a strong possibility.

Totalitarian state? Hyperbole yet again from the brexit side, shock horror, little or no evidence to back their opinions though, shock horror again.

(hah muffin I just watched the Green video. Sad but true but funny.)

BornFree, yes I think they'd offer a bit more. But not much more. Certainly not an exemption from free movement.

The problem is that if they give the UK what it wants, then there's a precedent and everyone else will want the same. And then the EU collapses for sure.

One thing the Brexit side has right, is that there is a real ideological belief in the EU on the continent. Yes Brexit would be terrible economic news for the EU, but Germany and France will much prefer to take a big economic hit, rather than give in completely to Britain and risk the entire project.

Then they would have to decide whether allowing us free movement is worth the whole Eu collapsing.

It does seem that there is a worry about the present Tory Gov, that is perhaps pushing some voters to remain just so they have the EU gov over us, I do not understand this logic

Let me explain this very flawed thinking:

They think Labour will never win again even if they dump Corbyn because of the decline in Labour support in Scotland and Wales.

They hate the Tories.

The think the EU protects workers rights.

So they will vote for the hated Mr Cameron's recommendation to stay in the EU. Last time I looked neither Mr Cameron nor the covey of international bankers that are backing the REMAIN campaign have ever been big on workers rights

Not only that, they are voting on the hated Mr Cameron's recommendation to stay in the EU and be subject to TTIP - the trade deal that many trades union, NHS activists and Lord Owen say will kill the NHS.

So they have to counter that rather inconvenient truth with "Well, it doesn't really matter about TTIP cos if we leave the EU that hated Mr Cameron (whose recommendations we've just voted on to stay in the EU) will give us worse!.

Which completely fails to understand that if you are not in the EU you cannot be part of a trade deal between the EU (that you are not part of) and the US.

So they get round that by saying "Ah, but we are lucky we are in the EU are are having TTIP foist upon us by the EU because if we left the EU the US would just impose TTIP on us). Which completely fails to recognise that outside the EU we would be a self0determining sovereign country and that we are the largest investor in the US so are unlikely to agree to having them 'impose' anything on us, nor would they try.

So after all those contortions to try to comfortably accommodate the ridiculous idea that staying in the EU is 'good for workers rights' they then surrender workers rights by staying in the EU and accepting downwards pressure on workers wages through wage compression due to availability of cheap labour.

Confused? I'm not. They are.

Luckily there are some free-thinking Labour, LibDems and Greens out there who can see through this nonsense, as I was told the other day by a guy wearing a Unite lanyard who said his union recommending REMAIN could "go to hell" and the two roofers who said they were Labour members but ignoring Labour's recommendation - and helpfully added that so were the rest of their mates.

Very heartening.

The weirdest thing about this debate is the idea that a leave vote would result in concessions from the EU.

Firstly, isn't an out vote supposed to mean out? In which case concessions are irrelevant. Secondly, is no one prepared to acknowledge the significant risk that the EU will wish to make an example of the UK?

"The problem is that if they give the UK what it wants, then there's a precedent and everyone else will want the same. And then the EU collapses for sure"

Its already being pulled in many directions. Its already on the verge of collapse.

Does every other member state want to opt out of the Free Movement? Probably not.

Secondly, is no one prepared to acknowledge the significant risk that the EU will wish to make an example of the UK?

Good point, If this referendum was being held a decade or more ago, I would agree its a huge risk.

Too many factors are putting the EU under enormous pressure without Brexit on top. So this current climate, no I don't think it would.

Then they would have to decide whether allowing us free movement is worth the whole Eu collapsing

They couldn't offer that - the eastern europeans members would never accept it. Their economies rely on remittances from workers abroad.

Also, if we wanted to leave the EU but remain within the EEA we would have to accept free movement anyway. So it's best to totally BREXIT and remove any obligation to free movement. We then trade in the same way as the other 160+ countries that trade with the EU but do not automatically allow EU citizens permission to live and work in their countries.

The EU does seem to be getting a bit twitchy about a possible Brexit - Cameron is sounding more hysterical by the day.

Meanwhile, if you follow the money you'll see foreign investment has continued since the announcement of the referendum, even with the 2 sides neck-and-neck and just 44 days to go.

Too many factors are putting the EU under enormous pressure without Brexit on top.

Which is exactly why they may have to make an example of Britain... so no one else is tempted to vote "out". The climate of instability is exactly why they would have to be ruthless. Not to get "revenge" or anything like that, just to survive.

I'm so glad Spring is here to tell us what we are all thinking.

Chalalala, I love that video. Hilarious. Mini Liz Kendall is my favourite.

the EU will wish to make an example of the UK

If that's the true character of the EU it's definitely best to escape sooner rather than later.

They couldn't offer that - the eastern europeans members would never accept it. Their economies rely on remittances from workers abroad

True. Yet its the EU countries who dont want to take Refugees.

Brexit would be terrible economic news for the EU, but Germany and France will much prefer to take a big economic hit, rather than give in completely to Britain and risk the entire project

The economic impact wouldn't be that huge (much smaller than for the UK), because the UK economy is very exposed to the EU whereas individual EU economies have limited exposure to the UK. I think some companies may view this as an opportunity: Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin will certainly be looking to take market share in financial services, and there will be competition for manufacturing investment that might otherwise have gone to the UK.

Which is exactly why they may have to make an example of Britain... so no one else is tempted to vote "out". The climate of instability is exactly why they would have to be ruthless. Not to get "revenge" or anything like that, just to survive

This is not a one-way street.

They want to sell us German cars, French agricultural produce etc. Why would they want to risk their factories and farmers standing idle when they already have far higher unemployment rates than we have?

If they attempt to 'punish' us any reduction in jobs will send a flood of migrants back to their home EU countries to add to their existing unemployment.

What are they going to do? Start Cameron's Third World War?

So they get round that by saying "Ah, but we are lucky we are in the EU are are having TTIP foist upon us by the EU because if we left the EU the US would just impose TTIP on us). Which completely fails to recognise that outside the EU we would be a self0determining sovereign country and that we are the largest investor in the US so are unlikely to agree to having them 'impose' anything on us, nor would they try.

That was actually a decent summary until this bit - no one has said the US would "impose" something like TTIP to Britain. They wouldn't need to, because the Tories would welcome it with open arms. They've been the biggest TTIP cheerleaders in the EU negotiations. In fact in his big speech a few days ago Boris complained that the TTIP negotiations were taking too long!

They want to sell us German cars, French agricultural produce etc.

They want to sell us their products. We need to buy imported products, because we can't rely on the British car industry or the British agricultural economy to satisfy all our domestic needs.

Where do you think the balance of power is going to lie, exactly?

But Springing, you of all people should see that the EU is not just an economic organisation, it's something France and Germany actually believe in. They will take an economic hit if they have to, in order to send a political message.

(not to mention Mistigri is right, in relative terms the economic fallout is more important to the UK than to the EU)

The problem is that a favourable agreement will require unanimous agreement of member states. All of whom will have very different motivations.

So while I think that negotiations may start in a reasonably cooperative climate, depending on who ends up in 10 Downing Street, there is a very high risk that domestic political imperatives will result in a difficult climate for negotiations, and an eventual deal that is harmful to both sides.

There will also be considerable tension between political and institutional imperatives, and economic considerations. It's very difficult to predict where this will lead.

If that's the true character of the EU it's definitely best to escape sooner rather than later
They punished Greece.

But yes, its that's what they do, get out. The truth is, we do not know where continued membership will take us.

What will Brexit give us? Our own Government and procedures followed for centuries, we have elections, and we vote.

What will the EU morph into.

Look how it grows, bulges, expands and oozes its power over the EU countries, reaching its sticky tentacles into our very seats of democracy. Its this bad now, what will it become?

I would think that a newly sovereign country, with one of the world's strongest currencies outside the failing Eurozone, lying just offshore of one of the biggest trading blocs in the world, with good links to the Commonwealth and a 'special relationship' with America, would be a very attractive investment opportunity for financial services and other investors.

If the EU is so great why did all these inter and multi-national companies ever bother setting up here in the first place and suffering the additional overheads of having to export their manufactured goods to mainland Europe. It can't be our cheap work force because they could get workers for 82p an hour in Bulgaria.

So what was it that made them forgo the splendours of the Eurozone to come to little Blighty?