*scratches head* Why is the Remain campaign so rattled?

[TheABC]

I genuinely don't get it. They have already spent £9 million on leaflets, wheeled out everyone from the IMF to the American President and the telephone polls are putting them in the lead. Admittedly, the campaign feels a bit "meh" in that they are talking about potential losses instead of positive future plans, but they still seem to be doing OK.

So why does it feel like they are panicking? Could it just be the way it's reported?

Daisy never has done anything original Hover, it would be hard for her to start now.

100 leading City names sign letter backing Brexit

"More than 100 leading City grandees have backed the Vote Leave campaign arguing that Brussels meddling represents “a genuine threat” to Britain’s financial services industry."

"Senior figures from the worlds of banking, stockbroking, insurance and fund management said in a letter to the Standard that the Square Mile “can thrive and grow outside the European Union”."

"The signatories include respected names such as former chairman of the LIFFE futures exchange Sir Brian Williamson, hedge fund bosses Paul Marshall, chairman and founding partner of Marshall Wace, and Kevin Pakenham, co-founder of Pakenham Partners, and Melanie Hampton, managing director of insurance brokers Alexander Miller."

All the concepts are hard to grasp and will simply not be grasped at all by the majority - which is why the referendum is a total farce.

Yes I'm not sure it carries the same weight as the Chair of HSBC or the Stock Exchange saying its risky. Or 100 or so executives at FTSE 250 companies, or the IMF, BOE, OECD, CIB, etc. But each of those sources when quoted get shouted down by the brexiters as having vested interests.

So it needs to be remembered that it doesn't work in some city types interests to stay in, the cap on bankers bonuses is going to have an effect on what they are paid, and recent news shows that the massive salaries getting approved/not approved attracts the wrong sort of attention. No need to approve bonuses in this way.

Brussles wants to regulate hedge funds, and quite rightly too they need some regulation, but this of course would effect profits.

However two others have come out and said to stay in:

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d682c838-8953-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html#axzz47JSEJfuL

The economy and Brexit – a tangled tale

Some quotes from this article, by Kamal Ahmed, the BBC's economics editor:

"First its membership" (Economists for Brexit) "includes Patrick Minford, professor of applied economy at Cardiff University who was formerly one of the "wise people" advising the Treasury between 1993 and 1996."

"And Gerard Lyons, former chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank who is now adviser to Boris Johnson, the London Mayor and of course prominent Brexit campaigner."

"Second, the economic model they use to forecast the future - though different from the Treasury's for example - has a long track record and has been influential in the past."

"Where the Treasury report last week said the economy would be more than 6% smaller - and poorer - by 2030 if Britain leaves the EU, today's report says it would be 4% larger, and richer."

What credibility does George Osborne have? He has no qualifications as an economist. He has O level maths and his degree was in history.

Its an interesting view, did you also notice he said that wages would fall? There is also the issue that he talks of complete free trade with the rest of the world, which could be damaging to British industry, especially farming etc.

Lots of other economists have come out to say that Brexit would likely have a detrinental effect on the UK.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-nine-out-of-ten-economists-say-brexit-will-damage-economy-a6898886.html

George Osborne as the Chancellor also has lots and lots of highly qualified economists at his disposal through the Treasury.

As do PWC, LSE, Oxford University, The Bank of England, the IFS, the IMF, the OECD, HSBC etc etc.

All of whom have come out and said that Brexit would be damaging to the UK.

But because it doesn't tell you what you want to hear you ignore it, shout project fear and trumpet the views of a small minority that agree with you.

Lets be honest you're not making this decision having made a wide range of reading from various sources are you.

Oh and before anyone starts, the economist in A4s article was a Treasury economist in a previous career. So you'll believe one when they say what you want to hear, not when they don't.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz47JSEJfuL

Have a read of this.

Even the most optistic predictions are those that say it depends what kind of deal we negotiate with the EU. Many more have negative positions.

Contributions are from economists from lots of universities, think tanks and banks. Even the most anti EU think tanks are fairly cautious in their predictions as it "depends" on the EU/UK relationship.

So how can we know whats going to happen there? Well we can look at Norway and Switzerland and the Swiss haven't got as full access for services as we want. But Brexiters don't want to do that, cause "we will be able to negotiate a better deal". So we look at what the Germans, French and others have said about there being no full access to the single market without baring some of the costs. Again Brexiters don't want to hear that so they say we will get this pie in the sky deal where the UK has all of the benefits of the EU and none of the costs.

The economic arguments are rubbish, I'm sorry.

I don't think we are panicking at all. The UK will vote to stay in and will be right to do so. If not I shall eat my hat!

Hover

"It's really quite irritating. Part of the problem is that there are two very different options for leaving, and nobody is quite sure which one they're voting for/against. There are lengthy discussions on this board with some frankly rabid Brexiters, and they refuse to respond to questions about whether we're going to have a Norway type deal (access to the free market, but still paying in, accepting free movement of people, and having even less of a say in things), or a complete cut (which would seem more honest)."

There are many reasons for leaving but only one for staying:. The reason pitched for staying is we'll be better off or should I say we won't be worse off.
I know how and why I am voting.
There are just as many rabid Bremainers. who refuse to respond and acknowledge arguments for leaving.
We'll get a UK style deal. Just like the US will get a US style deal, Switzerland has a Switzerland type deal and Norway has a Norway type deal.

I think it was in the FT analysis I read that now the Economic Prosperity claims have been roundly defeated (and I imagine Boris will not be repeating his racist slurs that the President of the United States is an anti-Brit because of his Kenyan heritage), the Brexiters will be having another push against Foreigners and Immigration.

Perhaps it will be their last refuge.

I'm sure Boris, Farage and Griffin will be pleased to act together.

Remain is rattled because they weren't able to fool all of the people all of the time with their remain propaganda.

I was expecting the Government to produce information showing the up and down sides of remaining or leaving.

They did not do this instead showing their biased colours wanting us in (at any cost it seems) without giving us information to enable us to make up our own minds.

Luckily for us, we now have the internet so we can now do our own research to establish whether or not we should stay or leave.

Cameron's obvious eagerness to get us to remain has backfired spectacularly;, the laughable leaflet we paid £9m for, the incredible (ie not credible) report that Osbourne issued and even wheeling in Obama to threaten us.

Now Cameron is even asking Union bosses to convince their members to vote in. Of all the people in this country that should be voting out, it is low paid workers whose wages are being driven down by the sheer over supply of labour coming in from all over the EU. The big firms now have a labour pool nearly 9 times bigger to pluck labour from guaranteeing them an almost endless supply of cheap labour. Great for the fat cat bosses and their profit related pay packets but not so good for the workers. Heck, we now have more foodbanks that ever because even working people cannot afford to feed themselves. Reality check, something is wrong.

I wonder what other interesting stunts will be pulled to convince, read scare, people to vote in.

Yoko

"The Brexit argument is simplistic (£10 million a day! Our borders!) and easy for thickos to think they understand. The reasons to Bremain are, I think, more complex and difficult to grasp, therefore your average man in the street thinks they're nonsense"

I think by insulting a significant proportion of the population who are voting to leave by implying they are "thickos" indicates you've come to the end of any meaningful debate having nothing useful to contribute.

Well, until I hear a decent Brexit argument, I'm just going to assume that being a Brexiter means you're a bit hard of thinking, or a Daily Mail reader, or both.

Yoko, assume away. It says more about you than us.

It says nothing about me, apart from that I'm in favour of EU membership, and that I believe the Brexit campaign is headed up by a load of chancers (Boris? Pro-EU) who are playing on people's xenophobia.

bit hard of thinking, or a Daily Mail reader, or both. I'm neither but even if I was, does that make my opinion less valid? This is a referendum on the future of the UK and it will impact on us all, even those of us lacking your lofty intellect.

Reasons to vote out are numerous and have been clearly explained by numerous posters on several threads. Dismissing the vast number of reasons for Brexit as 'xenophobic' is pernicious and inaccurate. If simply makes you implausible

I just don't understand why longstanding peace in Europe, all the protections that the ECHR brings us, the economic benefits etc. aren't good enough reasons to stay, in many people's view. I'm sad that all the fantastic benefits of EU membership might become history because 'immigration' or 'we can negotiate our own trade deals, thanks'. Such a depressing prospect, and all because lots of Brits are either xenophobic or lost in some vision of the UK that's not existed in years.

Longstanding peace in Europe has been credited to NATO by most historians. Attributing it to the EU is inaccurate but suits the Project Fear agenda.

I don't think brexit is a depressing prospect at all. I am optimistic and excited by a future free from the shackles of the EU. I really am.

NATO was constructed to slow down and inconvenience the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact forces if it rolled Westward. That is why it was largely dismantled after 1990,

The European movement was founded by people who had just lived through the greatest war the world had ever seen. The older ones has also survived the world's second greatest war. Nothing was more important to them than preventing a recurrence.

I heard on R4 this morning that future generations might lump together WWI and WWII, as the intervening 'peace' was merely a continuation of hostilities and recriminations. Frightens me to think that peace in Europe might be so fragile. Being part of the EU is central to this current stability, and my main concern if we were to leave is the destabilisation of Europe and break-up of the UK.

Piglet, straight form the NATO website: It is often said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. This is only partially true. In fact, the Alliance’s creation was part of a broader effort to serve three purposes: deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.

Lots of info on peacetime being wrongly accredited to the EU. For instance this article from The Telegraph.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12103724/Historians-for-Britain-warn-against-pro-EU-scare-tactics.html

Yoko, believe me, peace prevailing in Europe is my wish too. I think the current situation in the EU is very fragile and could well buckle under the strain of the migrant crisis. ISIS and its free movement is also a threat. We see the rise of the far-right in Germany; an unwelcome but inevitable reaction to forced and failed integration in the EU. Greece is on the brink and civil unrest is growing in Spain and Italy. I dont think the EU is helping maintain peace.

That's a theory already, basically ww2 was a product of the peace of ww1.