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Brexit

The EU Referendum is nearly upon us.........23rd June.

1000 replies

Daisyonthegreen · 13/04/2016 20:42

I have been invited by other posters to start a new EU Referendum Thread as the EU thread "In out shake it all about what to vote in the EU referendum "is now closed.
Anyhow this vote is is pretty crucial for the good of the country and your family.
I make no secret of the fact I feel to vote to Leave is the best option.
On the "In out shake it all about,what to vote in the EU Referendum " Thread I posted many links and gave views on why I feel that way.
I feel we would flourish free of the beaucratic ,undemocratic organisation it has turned into.
A Trading block initially started up with 9 countries in the 1970s has become out of control,mammoth and unwieldy and frankly rather dangerous.
We need to wrest back control of our own country,our borders and our ability to broker our own Trade deals which the EU insists on doing for us.
Plus our own Judicial decisions.
We on leaving would still Trade with the EU,they need us more than we need them actually but the beauty of it we could be free to broker our own deals with the rest of the world on our terms.
In short we would flourish.
We can love/ like Europe but not be in the EU.

OP posts:
Itinerary · 20/04/2016 08:38

lurked101 the first sentence of your Reuters link is:

"Britain enjoys far greater influence inside the European Union than its largely eurosceptic public believes, a pro-EU campaign group said on Thursday"

So not such impartial opinions then...

Lookingagain · 20/04/2016 08:41

This link to Suzanne Moore on George Osborne, on the same page as your Own Jones piece:

"The chancellor has proved himself incapable of predicting anything accurately. There’s no reason to believe his Brexit forecasts are any more trustworthy"

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/18/george-osborne-brexit-scare-figures

I think we can all agree that both sides are scaremonger and pretending that speculation is solid forecasting.

NoItsAVegetable · 20/04/2016 08:51

There's a lot of high falutin' stuff on here on occasion but mums care about where their child can get into a school and it ain't good with mass immigration.

Oh yes, because us poor little mums are far too intellectually challenged to cope with any of that there high falutin' stuff. And you have the gall to accuse others of being patronising?? [hmmm]

lurked101 · 20/04/2016 08:56

Itin. . Well if you lot can repeatedly quote Hannan on here I can link to whatever I like.

Chalalala · 20/04/2016 08:56

The French are probably the most eurosceptic nation after the UK, and they're still nowhere near close to a "leave" vote. Euroscepticism has been increasing both on the far right and the far left, yes, but recent polls only show something like 30% for leaving, and 25% for ending free movement.

No major French party is advocating leaving the EU. Even the racist and xenophobic FN is only advocating leaving the euro, and doesn't have a clear position on the EU (the old guard has occasionally advocated leaving, but the young guard wants to stay).

The EU is criticised a lot and for many good reasons in France, but a fundamental difference with the UK is that French elites as well as many French people are ideologically in favour of the EU political project.

Chalalala · 20/04/2016 08:59

(sorry that was in answer to a post on the previous page)

Lookingagain · 20/04/2016 09:03

I don't think Britain leaving would precipitate a mass exodus from the EU either. I think the most likely to leave after Britain would be the Danes. And I really don't think they would.

Chalalala · 20/04/2016 09:09

there's a case to be made Brexit would help push the EU towards further political integration, actually, since Britain has traditionally been the strongest voice against it.

Lookingagain · 20/04/2016 09:16

I agree Chalalala, I think that is far more likely than the EU disintegrating without us.

Chalalala · 20/04/2016 09:24

hoping for this as my consolation prize if Brexit (which I really don't want) happens ;-)

NoItsAVegetable · 20/04/2016 09:32

Ruslana

Please do not lecture me about feminism and European cultural values. Maybe you are the only woman who hasn't heard about the Russian authorities' shameful treatment of Pussy Riot? And let's not even get started about that country's treatment of gay people.

Would you think it legitimate for me to accuse you of holding the same attitudes simply because you are Russian? I thought not. So kindly don't do it to me or others. I have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of, but perhaps you have.

I currently live in a European city that has experienced a large influx of refugees since last September, in a district that has always had a high proportion of immigrants, and I was out and about in the city centre with friends on New Year's Eve. Neither I nor any of the women I know have been attacked or live in fear of being attacked. My neighbour is from Anatolia, which no doubt qualifies as your nebulous, sinister "East", yet remarkably he and his son have managed to hold back from raping me or my daughters on the stairs during the 13 years we have lived next door to one another.

Incidentally, over the past 40-odd years I have lived or spent longer periods of times in many large towns and cities throughout the UK and continental Europe. The only time I have ever been sexually assaulted in those 40-odd years was in a French seaside resort, by a Frenchman of French origin. I see no need to hold the entire French nation responsible for his appalling behaviour.

Itinerary · 20/04/2016 10:44

Well if you lot can repeatedly quote Hannan on here I can link to whatever I like.

Sure, but is a pro-EU group an "independent source"? It's their opinion, not Reuters.

Chalalala · 20/04/2016 10:57

Well here is the WSJ's opinion (citing independent studies), from the article posted above. It's behind a paywall, so I'm just posting some relevant extracts. Hope that's ok.


In Brexit Debate, U.K.’s Lack of Influence in EU is Greatly Exaggerated

Simply counting up times the U.K. was outvoted tells us nothing useful about Britain’s sway in the bloc, Simon Nixon writes

(...) The main evidence used to support these claims is a report produced last year by the euroskeptic Business for Britain campaigning organization, which found the U.K. voted against 55 pieces of EU legislation since 1996 but was outvoted each time. What's more, it said 21 of those British objections were registered since 2010 alone and the U.K. has been outvoted far more times than any other EU member.

(...) Yet the truth is that the U.K. is far from marginalized or lacking in influence.

First, it is important to note that simply counting up the number of times the U.K. was outvoted in the European Council tells us nothing useful about U.K. influence. These 55 "no" votes account for just 1.9% of all votes in the Council since 1996. (...)

Besides, votes in the Council give little insight into who comes out on top in Brussels deal-making. Much of the hard bargaining takes place long before decisions reach the Council floor; governments set out their priorities and red lines early in the process and the details are hammered out between EU ambassadors. Unpopular initiatives may be killed off before they come to the Council.

When it comes to voting, countries adopt different approaches. France, for example, rarely votes against any EU proposal: It will fight hard for its priorities in negotiations, but prefers publicly to side with the consensus rather than be seen to have been outvoted. The U.K., in contrast, is more willing to register any disagreement, reflecting domestic political pressure to be seen as "standing up to Brussels," a trend that has intensified since 2010.

Political scientists have tried to devise other ways to analyze EU decision-making to figure out which countries are influential. For example, one study asked officials from across the member states with which countries they most closely cooperated in EU rule-making. On this score, the U.K. stands out as the most influential: 20 of the 26 delegations cited U.K. officials as among their principal partners, reflecting the U.K.'s perceived success in securing its objectives.

Another study looked at how closely the outcomes of EU negotiations reflected the original policy positions of national governments; again the U.K. scored highly, coming out fourth, ahead of France and Germany. That may reflect the U.K.'s rigorous approach to EU legislation, which requires broad cross-government consultation to identify British negotiating objectives.

(...)

Indeed, one reason so many member states desperately want the U.K. to remain in the EU is because they fear the loss of British influence.


lurked101 · 20/04/2016 11:01

So you can't win the economic argument and now can't win the democracy argument either, because as with the economics its more complex than the way you present in.

So what are you really voting brexit for? It's not about improving the economic situation or sovereignty.

fourmummy · 20/04/2016 13:04

I'm surprised that I haven't seen any telephone polls, which report the reasons as well as the voting intention, e.g., 'What are your top three reasons for intending to vote this way?'. Does anyone know of any out there? I am tracking poll of polls (the FT one) but don't know of any qualitative ones.

fourmummy · 20/04/2016 13:18

There are polls such as this one:

uk.businessinsider.com/poll-brexit-takes-seven-point-lead-2016-3, which provide a possible reason for the voting intention based on an analyst's interpretation of the data but I am looking for a poll that asks participants themselves to explain their voting intention to the researcher.

lurked101 · 20/04/2016 13:23

It's interesting that we have publicly voted against things more since the tories have been in government. Could that be because DC needs to be seen to be standing up for Britain against the EU by his party?

fourmummy · 20/04/2016 13:31

This poll just came up, which is interesting in and of itself:

www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/mar/15/regional-newspapers-eu-poll-shows-massive-support-for-brexit

(and immigration and no regional benefit are in the headline- haven't read the article yet)

but it's a regional one. It would be good to have a 'poll of polls' tracker of main reasons for each voting intention.

PigletJohn · 20/04/2016 13:49

I managed to find the list of votes where UK has "not got its own way." They are a load of trivia.

The list of votes where UK has been on the "winning side" is vastly bigger.

lurked101 · 20/04/2016 14:12

Can you give us some examples?

PigletJohn · 20/04/2016 14:34

I can't find the link today.

But I'm sure some of the anti-Europeans who keep ranting about the UK being outvoted billions of times will have it. Unless they are just spreading unsupported myths.

AnnaForbes · 20/04/2016 14:45

I can't find the link today. but Unless they are just spreading unsupported myths.

Oh, the irony Grin

lurked101 · 20/04/2016 14:46

I've not seen them post anything other than the stat, which is disingenuous because of its relative size to all EU votes and the fact that it has been politically expedient for Cameron to vote against the EU for show more often since 2010.

Mind you they are disingenuous with all of their stats, and just make stuff up on the hoof when they can't bend the data to their will.

PigletJohn · 20/04/2016 14:56

I did find this though

While it is true that the UK has been outvoted in the Council more than any other country in the past six years, it was still on the winning side 87% of the time. What’s more, Britain is good at getting the right proposals on the table in the first place. Simon Hix at the London School of Economics crunched the numbers: comparing what each country wants to happen in a negotiation with what actually happens, the UK is the fourth most successful country in the EU; If you look at the issues the UK cares about most, it is the second most successful.

PigletJohn · 20/04/2016 15:30

found some examples where UK voted no and the majority voted "yes"

Council Directive amending Commission Directive 94/54/EC concerning the
compulsory indication on the labelling of certain foodstuffs of particulars other
than those provided for in Council Directive 79/112/EEC

Council Directive concerning the prohibition on the use in stockfarming of
certain substances having a hormonal or thyrostatic action and of betaagonists,
and repealing Directives 81/602/EEC, 88/146/EEC and 88/299/EEC

Council Directive on the appointment and vocational qualification of safety
advisers for the transport of dangerous goods by road, rail and inland waterway

Council Regulation laying down for 1996 certain conservation and management
measures for fishery resources in the Convention Area as defined in the
Convention on Future Multilateral Cooperation in North-East Atlantic Fisheries

Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Council
Directive 80/777/EEC on the approximation of the laws of the Member States
relating to the exploitation and marketing of natural mineral waters

Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning the posting
of workers in the framework of the provision of services

Wow
earth shattering, no?

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