The EU Referendum is nearly upon us.........23rd June.

[Daisyonthegreen]

I have been invited by other posters to start a new EU Referendum Thread as the EU thread "In out shake it all about what to vote in the EU referendum "is now closed.
Anyhow this vote is is pretty crucial for the good of the country and your family.
I make no secret of the fact I feel to vote to Leave is the best option.
On the "In out shake it all about,what to vote in the EU Referendum " Thread I posted many links and gave views on why I feel that way.
I feel we would flourish free of the beaucratic ,undemocratic organisation it has turned into.
A Trading block initially started up with 9 countries in the 1970s has become out of control,mammoth and unwieldy and frankly rather dangerous.
We need to wrest back control of our own country,our borders and our ability to broker our own Trade deals which the EU insists on doing for us.
Plus our own Judicial decisions.
We on leaving would still Trade with the EU,they need us more than we need them actually but the beauty of it we could be free to broker our own deals with the rest of the world on our terms.
In short we would flourish.
We can love/ like Europe but not be in the EU.

You are wrong, Widow, Europeans are welcome.

I made an error upthread at 13:55:17 (to WidowWadman) and elsewhere when I erroneously referred to 'OP'. It was my shorthand for other poster and was not meant to refer to the Original Poster of this thread. Just wanted to make that clear; my apologies for that.

If Europeans indeed are welcome, why are Brexiteers campaign on getting rid of that very right? Anything published by pro Brexit anti migrant voices indicates that anyone would be welcome who isn't born here or wealthy.

If Europeans indeed are welcome, why are Brexiteers campaign on getting rid of that very right?

Just because there's not total freedom of movement, it doesn't mean people are unwelcome.

People studied, worked and lived in European countries which weren't their birth country, before we joined the EU, and will do so again after we leave.

I agree with Anna Forbes, and see no good reason why migration should be so much more difficult for all the skilled people who live outside the EU and would like to come to Britain.

Leaving the EU doesn't have to mean fewer migrants, it could just as easily mean more if Britain chooses, but the difference is that the UK will be setting its own terms, just as so many countries worldwide do.

That is a reasonable argument. Non-EU immigration is higher than EU immigration. Where are the predictions that EU immigration would fall?

But then we come to the stickler which is the terms of any agreement in trade with the EU would probably include freedom of movement, and we go back to square one.

We also then have to add the fact that EU immigration is broadly beneficial for the UK in terms of fiscal contribution and then contibution to economic growth.

Exactly Itinerary.

The Remain camp need to understand that Brexit does not mean anti-mmigration.
Proven by the number of left wing parties in the Leave camp.

But many of the posters here helpful ARE anti immigration, and many of the Breixt supporters are, which is why argument goes back to reasons for and against.

I can see a clear argument for less immigration if it would bring significantly benefits to the UK population. However, the pro briext group Migration Watch estimate that immigration would fall by about 100,000 per year, still missing the governments targets. The Oxford University study into impact on the NHS showed that immigration had been beneficial to the NHS, except for in deprived areas outside London between 2004-2008.

Then we come to where this gets really complicated, for every 10% increase in unskilled labour we get a 2% fall in unskilled wage rates. So a decrease in immigration would put wages up. On the face of this, its a good thing. However, this would lead to rising costs for British businesses, reducing international competitiveness and putting jobs at risk.

So its extremely complicated, especially when you add in the possible economic impacts of Brexit in both the short run and the long run.

The fact is that any deal struck with the EU would be most likely to follow those of Norway and Switzerland , these are the countries who have the most beneficial deals, and Switzerland has been trying to negoitate quotas for over a year without much luck.

We then have to look at the reasons for arguing against immigration, the NHS one has been dealt with above, the benefits one shows that EU immigrants are less likely to be claiming out of work benefits, and a 14% of them claim in work benefits. Which as there are 1.9 million of them in work ( the rest being students, stay at home parents, retired nationals of other countries eligbible for the pension here etc) means that 73,000 people claim tax credits. Far lower than the number that claim who are British nationals. I did that calculation earlier but based in on the total number of EU immigrants not those who are in the workforce, sorry for the slip.

Widow "If Europeans indeed are welcome, why are Brexiteers campaign on getting rid of that very right? "

The point is some of us want control back. We want to be in a position to invite people to come to GB when there is a need for extra manpower or for skills we cannot find within our own country. There is nothing unusual about wanting to know who is coming through your door FGS.

No country is there for outsiders to exploit at will. Just as companies identify a need they will then advertise, interview and employ as required. They do not continue recruiting whenever someone rocks up at Reception Desk saying I want a job.

I do not allow everyone to use my driveway just because it's there.

Exactly.

The key word. Control.

266 000 people claiming in work tax credits from the EU sorry, got my sums confused.

You watching MotD later Lurked or are you more of a rugger man?

Come on helfpful engage in the discussion rather than throwing that around.

Cause here comes the funny part about this, the first time you throw that accusation and I deny it you go off it one direction of criticism, if I agree it will be another. Its not something I'm going to engage in.

Loads of information in lots of areas regards leaving the EU.
Easy to select subjects and have a read.
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing

Good news ,love watching cricket on a village green when I get the chance.
www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7081942/Beefy-backs-Brexit-Sir-Ian-Botham-says-Britain-should-stand-proud-and-leave-the-EU.html

Hey Lurked

Do you agree with Butter and Hovercraft that ignorant people like me and Daisy shouldn't have the vote?

Or at least, our votes shouldn't have as much value as yours?

Sounds like something from the Nazi manifesto.

Even more reason to vote Brexit. Arsene Wenger is against it.

(that's football Lurked if you are not sure).

Sounds like something from the Nazi manifesto.

Congrats everyone, we've officially reached Godwin point

Ok So I'm going to refute a few of the things from that webstie:

The NHS: 475,000 live births to mothers from other EU countries between 2005 and 2014.

Right , so 47,000 a year? Negligble, Oxford University studies show that the NHS has benefited from immigration.

All of the other immigration points rely on leaving the EU and not signing up to freedom of trade, so lets look at their points on trade.

The EU is a shrinking market for the UK. Over the last decade, the EU has become less important to UK exporters, with exports of goods and services to the EU falling from 54% of the total in 2006 to 44% today

Not true, and a blatant misrepresentation of the statistics, the reasons the prortion of trade has fallen is not because the nominal figure has fallen, in fact it has grown, but trade with other countries because of glolbailsation (and EU trade deals) has grown therefore making the EU a smaller % of over all trade.

The figures on investment deal with the years of recession in the EU and growth in the US which of course means their investment will increase. However a lot of US investment is based on our relationship with the EU and the US government have said there will be no trade deal outside the EU, which will lead to declines in investment. It also fails to analyse that

Smaller countries, like Iceland and Switzerland, which are outside the EU and don’t have to deal with all of its bureaucratic problems, have been able to strike free trade agreements with China

The swiss agreement gives China instant access to their market, where as the Swiss are barred from free trade there for a number of years. Not the kind of deal we want to sign, and and a very good reason why the UK wants to be within the EU, prefferential terms.

I'll link to the CBI's fact sheet here:

news.cbi.org.uk/reports/our-global-future/factsheets/factsheet-2-benefits-of-eu-membership-outweigh-costs/

Polling shows that about 7 out of 10 businesses think Britain should take back control of trade policy. They reject the facile argument that common EU rules are needed to trade with Europe. They think that the EU is bad for jobs.

Which is in direct contrast to the CBI's data that 77% of SMEs support EU membership.

Many countries around the world trade with the EU without being members of it.

Yes, but the ones who have the best access and share borders contribute to the EU budget, accept the four freedoms and follow EU regulation without any control.

The UK is the EU’s single largest export market in goods, taking a larger share of EU exports than even the United States. It is in everyone’s interests, particularly Germany’s, to negotiate a friendly UK-EU free trade deal.

This is true, yet we export 44% of our goods there, the EU exports 15% of goods here. Big difference in the EU's favour when negotiating any deal.

As for the quotes?

Tim Tozer left Vauxhall last year.

The headline statements from the SMMT ( Car makers representitive body) say:

77% of members of SMMT – the voice of the UK motor industry – say remaining in Europe is best for their business, according to 2016 survey by independent pollster ComRes.
Overwhelming support for EU membership across the board, with 88% of large SMMT member companies and 73% of SME members in favour of remaining.
Majority of firms say Brexit would have a negative impact on their business.
Industry leaders from across the sector back the UK in Europe at press event in London.

You see when you post from a partisan site the data is easy to take apart.

Do you agree with Butter and Hovercraft that ignorant people like me and Daisy shouldn't have the vote?*

No.

Well done on getting us to Godwin's Law though.

Lurked101

"Your argument is circular here, so you'd prefer that we discriminate against all migrants? Remove freedom of movement from the EU and we will do that. What you really are doing here is trying to sound reasonable it really isn't. "

How is accepting migrants from all over the word and not just the EU discriminatory? I am only discriminiating against migrants that want to come to the UK that offer no value to our econony. Just like the US, NZ and Austraila and most other counrties in the world. This is not racist, it is common sense.

Didn't say it was racist. How do disntinguish on no value to the economy? So you'd get rid of the 14% that claim working tax credits?

Lurked101
"There is no way that the UK will negotiate this totally beneficial deal that you talk about, the other EU countries will simply not allow the UK to have all of the access to the single market without the costs involved. Its a fantasy. "

There is alo no way the EU will want to be responsible for the loss of 5m jobs overnight. Depends which side has the biggest balls of steel in the negociations. The problem we have is Cameron is weak and won't get us good deal.

From the HMRC website "EU Imports for February 2016 were £19.4 billion. This was an increase of £2.6 billion (15 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of £1.0 billion (5.2 per cent) compared with February 2015. "

I also question whether the EU commission will want to risk losing £20bn (and rising) per month of exports to the UK. As I keep saying, trade is a two way deal and the EU will suffer too if they want to play rough. We are the biggest consumer of Champagne in the EU. How long before French Farmers take to the streets when the EU commission says " Oh we told the UK get lost. No more exports to the UK". And what about the bosses of the German car makers? And all the fashion houses in Italy?

If we did not buy anything from the EU then yes they call the shots but they rely us too. Plus they want their membership fees They need our membership fees to help keep their organisation going. We are the second biggest subcriber to the EU.

In any event, I beleive that it we do pull out of the EU, it won't survive that long because that will leave Germany holding the baby on its own. Coupled with the negativity coming from the German people about migration, they will certainly not like the news that they will be proping up all the remaining 26 coutries in their own.

Also rememebr that there have been numerous referada over the years and for the most part, more and more citizens of EU states are getting fed up with the EU. So don't for a minite think that Brits who support Brexit are in any way a unique bunch of racists and corner shop mentality individuals.

Recenly, the Dutch voted overwhlingly against the Dutch Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement, 61% to 39%. Perhap we shoud now call the Dutch a bunch of zenophobic racsts for having the audacity to vote against an EU proposition.

The problem with your analysis is that you make it far too simple.

You are arguing with brexit eyes.

The French and Germans have said that there will not be full access to the free market without contributions and concessions on the four freedoms.

We can Brexit and sign a deal like the EEA fine, but it doesn't suit anyone's purposes.

Also who said that we wouldn't let them export here or us export there, just there will be WTO tariffs involved which makes British business far less competitive.

Remember for all your stats that you have posted only 15% of EU exports come here, they account for 55% of our imports, we export 44% of our stuff there.

The EU has by far the bigger hand to play with access for the single market than we do.

"There is alo no way the EU will want to be responsible for the loss of 5m jobs overnight"

But spread across 27 countries and 428 million people it is a lot lower than 3 million from 65 isn't it. Who has the stronger hand?

Sorry. It just doesn't work and member states have said that:

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-macron-idUKKCN0XC16R

Lurked101

"Then I feel you misunderstand the way the EU works. The commision do not set laws. EU laws are developed by teams of civil servants from each of the members states, they are then sent to the Council (made up of elected ministers from member states) or to the Parliament for ratification or ammendment.

Its the same way many new laws and bills are developed in this country, proposed by civil servants ( in white papers etc) and then ratified by parliament or sent back for ammendment."

The fundmental differance is that the UK electotate get 100% chance to change the UK Government. In the EU, we have 9.7% represntaion which means even if every person in the UK voted say for 100% Labour MEPs, this won't make much diifernce to the voting power in the EU. And as more and more countries join, our representaion will get less and less. There is NO chance of the UK reforming the UK like Cameron would have us beleive. It took him weeks of bowing and scraping to get tax reduced on tampons.