Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

there are nearly as many Britons in the EU as EU citizens in the UK - and that many british expats are elderly and therefore heavy consumers of health services.

Conversely they tend to be retired and self-sufficient.

people defecating in the street (x3), about 25EE immigrants living in a single, small house, having loud alcohol-fuelled all-nighters, a woman with so much face covering that she couldn't see where she was going so that she had to be ushered on and off public transport by her husband, two women with 'grills' over their mouths, a woman herded by a stick (by her husband?), women accompanied by young men to the GP surgery because they could not or would not speak, young girls not allowed or able to join in a PE lesson because of their long skirts and head coverings, large groups of Turkish (my mother spoke to them) men sitting in a cafe daily over a period of many months.

Of this list, only one clearly relates to the EU migration debate though (and the first isn't obviously related to migration at all).

Conversely they tend to be retired and self-sufficient.

Not unless they have private health insurance. Many rely on UK pensions and are very concerned about the impact of sterling devaluation and pension freezes.

"in 2014/15 other EU member states reimbursed the NHS £50 million however the UK government paid out £674 million for healthcare of British citizens overseas."

This is due mainly to the large numbers of retired people from the UK living overseas, as well as the NHS not chasing payments, they have now set in place improvements to this.

Nice to see migration watch being cited, they are good for raw data but their analysis is rather right wing in slant:

" Almost one in every ten babies born in the UK has a mother born in the EU."

Doesn't list how many of these babies are born to UK fathers.

I will accept that Migration watch does use some good information, but it presents it in a way that is a bit disingenuous.

For example its says that 25 % of all births in the UK are to non UK women and a third of all these are to EU immigrants. Now this means that 8.25 % of births in the UK are to EU immigrants, and many to mixed couples. They way they present it sounds a lot larger.

" Almost one in every ten babies born in the UK has a mother born in the EU."

"Doesn't list how many of these babies are born to UK fathers."

Or how many of them have fathers who've moved to the UK from other EU countries.

IHaving said that, it's the women who use the maternity services.

How many British expats claim benefits in the EU country they've moved to?

There are more of these in the EU 14 than there are people from these countries claiming benefits. Also those in work are entitled to in work benefits too. However there are more EU 8 people claiming benefits here than in those countries, but they are under represented in the jsa count

Lurked/MIstigirl I'm not looking to validate my own experiences. I am making the observation that for the layperson, when officially produced reports are pitted against their own empirical observations, the latter will win every time.

Lots of statistics being trotted out as usual. Fourmummy has it right though, it's individuals' own experience that will influence how they vote. All the individuals I speak to have tales of limited public services being overwhelmed by unlimited numbers coming in from the EU.

Why can't we just apply a selection process to determine who moves here? That would remove all the ambiguity about planning for unknown future numbers.

if we have 30,000,000 jobs in this country and 1,500,000 UK residents unemployed, the arrival of a further 360,000 EU migrants has no effect on unemployment levels.

No, the unemployment rate is relatively low - about the same it was 10 & 20 years ago.

The true scale of EU immigration will be revealed just weeks before the referendum after government officials agreed to publish hidden statistics after pressure from Eurosceptics.

Storm in a tea. A request for National Insurance data was initially turned down by an official because they thought the rules didn't allow it to be released whilst David Cameron was negotiating a deal with the EU. A couple of days later a spokesman said this was wrong, the data wasn't collated in a publishable form & it would be collated & published in 2016. I believe the NI data is to be released alongside routine immigration stats on 26 May, before the EU referendum.

However, comparing immigration stats with NI figures is like comparing apples & pears. They are different. NI figures aren't a reliable way to measure migration. People may have being living here years before applying for a NI number. Some may have been here short term & left the country already. They may still be here even though their NI is inactive. Also in the past the government has admitted there are high levels of fraud with NI. So the true scale of immigration won't be revealed.

Jonathan Portes, the researcher who originally made the request for NI data, says he expects the information to reveal there are actually considerably more recent migrants than the official immigration or labour market statistics actually suggest. At best we will be a step closer to understanding whether the estimates of immigration tell us what we need to know.

But those 1,500,000 are now in competition with the extra 360,000 for the few vacancies that do exist.

f we have 30,000,000 jobs in this country and 1,500,000 UK residents unemployed, the arrival of a further 360,000 EU migrants has no effect on unemployment levels.

No, the unemployment rate is relatively low - about the same it was 10 & 20 years ago.

So, unnecessary migration keeps the habitually resident population habitually unemployed.

The Government should be investing in the training necessary to get them off the unemployment benefit and able to compete with the migrant workforce.

Unfortunately teaching standards are so low in the UK that many people leave school with no qualifications at all. We are way down the OECD list of literacy and numeracy

www.itv.com/news/2016-01-29/british-youngsters-most-illiterate-in-developed-world/

These children are being failed by teachers. Probably part of the plan to keep them uninformed so they don't recognise the stupidity of voting to REMAIN in the UK.
Uneducated population + Project Fear =win, win for the REMAIN campaign

The unemployment rate doesn't mean much because if someone has a job they are employed. So while the rate has remained steady I would want to look at hours and pay per hour to get a better idea of what is going on.

Also, you have a population of 70m with 1m unemployed. You have 500k migrants. Say not one gets a job (highly unlikely I know), you have a population of 70.5m and unemployment of 1.5m. Unemployment rate goes from approx 1.45% to 2.12%. Saying the unemployment rate is low doesn't mean much of anything to me. As you can see from my example both, with and without migrants, rates are low.

Good point Supermum

Lots of jobs created recently are part-time, plenty of zero-hours contracts about as well. So a worker can be classed as 'employed' but maybe only works 16 hours per week and also is entitled to top-up benefits from the taxpayer.

Storm in a tea. A request for National Insurance data was initially turned down by an official because they thought the rules didn't allow it to be released whilst David Cameron was negotiating a deal with the EU.

Utter nonsense.

A couple of days later a spokesman said this was wrong, the data wasn't collated in a publishable form & it would be collated & published in 2016.

Then a change of excuse

I believe the NI data is to be released alongside routine immigration stats on 26 May, before the EU referendum

Still waiting for it.

However, comparing immigration stats with NI figures is like comparing apples & pears. They are different. NI figures aren't a reliable way to measure migration. People may have being living here years before applying for a NI number. Some may have been here short term & left the country already. They may still be here even though their NI is inactive.

The Government call easily tell how many NI numbers are in use. They are the ones against which NI contributions will have been paid in the last year. So the rest of that 'explanation' is just spin and woffle.

Also in the past the government has admitted there are high levels of fraud with NI. So the true scale of immigration won't be revealed.

Another excuse. 'We will give you the figures' but we are so bad at controlling fraud you cannot rely on them' . Blaming your own incompetence for your inability to know how many actual workers there are.

Jonathan Portes, the researcher who originally made the request for NI data, says he expects the information to reveal there are actually considerably more recent migrants than the official immigration or labour market statistics actually suggest.

Yes, Mr Portes has been popping up regularly on the Daily Politics to discuss the subject and to complain about the Government's failure to release the data.Governments usually fall over themselves to release good data - I guess this must be dire data.

At best we will be a step closer to understanding whether the estimates of immigration tell us what we need to know.

That takes the biscuit [biscuit[

You've been banging on about all these reports all telling us how beneficial immigration is for the economy and how it has zero effect on our elastic schools and hospitals and housing market and now you tell us that when the data is released we will be a step closer to understanding what the hell is going on.

Unfortunately teaching standards are so low in the UK that many people leave school with no qualifications at all. We are way down the OECD list of literacy and numeracy

You've hit the nail on the head. We have a skills shortage & as technology takes over we need well educated people. Not all EU migrants are fruit pickers, many are EU graduates have the engineering & technical skills we need to drive the economy forward. Freedom of movement makes it easier for employers to recruit people with the skills we need without travelling to the other side of the world- no visas, not too far or expensive to relocate or visit friends & family etc etc.

^These children are being failed by teachers. Probably part of the plan to keep them uninformed so they don't recognise the stupidity of voting to REMAIN in the UK.
Uneducated population + Project Fear =win, win for the REMAIN campaign^

Now you are beginning to sound rather like a conspiracy theorist.

Now you are beginning to sound rather like a conspiracy theorist

No, a uneducated population is much more malleable than an educated one.History has shown us that time after time.

We have a skills shortage & as technology takes over we need well educated people.

You've hit the nail on the head. How about we introduce an immigration policy open to the whole world, where we can select for the skills we need? Or shall we just open the doors to everyone in the EU?

I'm quite worried incase of a brexit, my company will be moving to Dublin if they were to exit. Does anyone know if i'm still eligible for an Irish passport if my grandparents were born in Northern Ireland? We would be moving to Ireland if UK does exit so i'm quite interested to know this. Also does anyone know if my DD would then be eligible for an Irish passport? She was born in France and currently holds no passport but currently eligible for UK passport.

Storm in a tea. A request for National Insurance data was initially turned down by an official because they thought the rules didn't allow it to be released whilst David Cameron was negotiating a deal with the EU.

Utter nonsense.

Don’t think the link works but this is the text of the letter;

16 December 2015 FOI 3363/15

Dear Mr Portes
,
Freedom of information Act 2000 (FOIA)
I refer to your request of 2 December for the following information:
“Using the methodology and data sources set out in www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-benefit-and-tax-credit-claims-by-recently- arrived-eea-migrants


1. How many individuals are recorded in DWP and/or HMRC computer systems who were a) nationals of another EEA member country (other than the UK) at time of registration for a National Insurance Number (on the basis set out in this DWP publication) AND b) are recorded as having arrived in the last four years (using the most recent available data) and using the earlier of (a) arrival date, or; (b) NINO registration date AND c) have either (i) paid National Insurance contributions over the previous year OR (ii) paid PAYE income tax over the previous year OR (iii) claimed benefits or tax credits over the previous year (on the same basis as in the DWP publication) This question can be answered as you determine appropriate either by reference to a 100% or a smaller (presumably 5%) sample and scaled up to provide an estimate for the whole population (with error bounds in the latter case).


2. The same question but for non-EEA nationals.”
I can confirm that HMRC does hold information in scope of your request but it is covered by the exemption in section 35(1) (a) information held for the formulation or development of government policy.
The government's policy on EU migrants’ access to benefits is currently under development. The information requested is exempt from disclosure to protect the private space within which Ministers and their policy advisors can develop policies without risk of premature disclosure.

As required by the Act, I have assessed the public interest for and against disclosure. There is a public interest in greater transparency which makes Government more accountable to the electorate and increase trust.
However, following the General Election, there is an active negotiation process at an international level in which UK Ministers and officials are engaged to secure support from the European Commission and other Member States for changes in EU law governing EU migrants’ access to benefits in the UK, in line with the Government’s manifesto commitments. The information is being used to inform the development of policy options as part of the negotiation process and therefore relates to the formulation of Government policy. HMRC continues to believe that releasing information in the form requested would, at this stage, be unhelpful to the negotiation process.

Therefore in this case, HMRC is satisfied that the public interest in maintaining the exemption outweighs the public interest in disclosure.

If you are not happy with this reply you may request a review by writing to HMRC FOI Team, Room 1C/23, 100 Parliament Street London SWIA 2BQ or by e-mail to [email protected]. You must request a review within 2 months of the date of this letter. It would assist our review if you set out which aspects of the reply concern you and why you are dissatisfied.

If you are not content with the outcome of an internal review, you may apply directly to the Information Commissioner for a decision. The Information Commissioner will not usually consider a case unless you have exhausted the internal review procedure provided by HMRC. He can be contacted at The Information Commissioner’s Office, Wycliffe House, Water Lane, Wilmslow, Cheshire SK9 5AF.

Yours sincerely
Philip Hogan
Policy Advisor

www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/files/HMRC%20FOI%20reply(1).pdf

Lol!

The renegotiation excuse was what i was saying 'utter rubbish to' - not the fact they they actually tried to use that excuse to pull the wool over our eyes. An excuse which they themselves subsequently had to admit was incorrect.

The first rule of Government propaganda - if it support your cause release the information immediately with maximum Press coverage.
.
The second rule of Government propaganda - if it doesn't support your cause find some excuse not to release it.

Third rule of Government propaganada - when all else fails kick the issue into the long grass in the hope the situation will have improved by the time you are forced to reveal the data.

Every civil servant knows that.

The skills shortage that we have is a direct result of our government inaction. Take the issue with lack of plumbers and electricians. We had a huge shortage and we allowed skilled labour to come in from new EU countries, mainly Poland. It was great at first because all of a sudden you could get a good plumber that did the job properly and didn't cost a fortune. However, the problem of a skills shortage didn't go away. Instead of ramping up apprenticeships we have a status quo and stagnation of wages making these jobs less desirable. We are absolute idiots for allowing this to happen.

The end result of EU immigration of plumbers and electricians is that you now can't find a plumber who knows how to deal with an old British home, you know one built in 1200 or so. The qualifications are not harmonized throughout the EU. Given the workmanship seen I would hire a Polish, German or Danish plumber over a French, Italian or Greek plumber. The problem with being in the EU is that we can not discriminate between these different countries with different standards. Leave and we can say no to those who want to enter from the countries where the certification is inferior to the British standard.

I have extensive dealing with plumbers and electricians but I assume the same issue applies to other skilled areas. Just because you qualify in one EU country doesn't mean you should automatically qualify in another EU country.

How about we introduce an immigration policy open to the whole world, where we can select for the skills we need?

I agree, that would be a very good idea. There's no good reason for it to be harder for immigrants from outside the EU, discouraging talented people from coming to the UK.

Freedom of movement makes it easier for employers to recruit people with the skills we need without travelling to the other side of the world- no visas, not too far or expensive to relocate or visit friends & family etc etc.

Employers don't usually have to travel to recruit people, and there are quite a few non-EU countries that aren't "on the other side of the world". Even so, if someone wants to move to the UK from "the other side of the world" then they will have taken all those things into account and decided it's still right for them.

The problem with being in the EU is that we can not discriminate between these different countries with different standards. Leave and we can say no to those who want to enter from the countries where the certification is inferior to the British standard.

Want2bsupermum, its not only plumbers and electricians, it is doctors and nurses too. Under new EU rules, thousands of European doctors and nurses will be allowed to work in the UK without any checks on their qualifications and safety.