Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

This is just another point that Brexiters make up, you have no idea what we would be doing with immigration, there isn't a set policy on it

Duh!

Can't set a policy at present because the EU forbids it.

Once we have Brexited we will have a policy - we will finally be allowed to control our own borders.

True scale of EU immigration to be revealed just weeks before referendum

"The true scale of EU immigration will be revealed just weeks before the referendum after government officials agreed to publish hidden statistics after pressure from Eurosceptics."

And yet another new 'truth'

It is a truth universally recognised that:

As EU immigration doesn't have an effect on unemployment but boosts productivity

So if we have 30,000,000 jobs in this country and 1,500,000 UK residents unemployed, the arrival of a further 360,000 EU migrants has no effect on unemployment levels.

Rejoice folks - we also have an elastic employment system along with our elastic hospitals and schools and our elastic housing market.

It's a wonder we don't all bounce off into space with so much elasticity in this country.

Come world and send your entire populations to the UK for we are elastic and we can accommodate everybody.

One world concentrated in one country - you know it makes sense.

"The true scale of EU immigration will be revealed just weeks before the referendum after government officials agreed to publish hidden statistics after pressure from Eurosceptics."

Get down the bookies now and place your bets on Brexit. I already have but when these stats are published they will stop taking bets on Brexit

David Cameron: 'Immigration is constant drain on public services'

Cameron in 2013:

"There are some benefits from being a country that welcomes people who want to come here and work hard. But in the last decade we have had an immigration policy that's completely lax. The pressure it puts on our public services and communities is too great."

"360,000 additional people coming to the UK to live from the EU place no additional burden on schools, hospitals or houses. None at all. "

360,000 is total net i,migration for last year, not EU immigration which was about 44% of that.

Your EU immigrant family are offset by the hundreds and hundreds of thousands that come here pay taxes, don't regularly go to the GP, don't have kids, pay taxes and return home after a while. These also contribute to paying for services for UK nationals.

You are forcing a very particular set of permeters on this, and it is pointed out to you EVERY time that the OUMO (who are the data authority) always say that the majority of EU migrants are young and do not impact on services as much.

Even the right wing Migration watch, in order to fix the UCL studies £20 bn contribution of EU immigrants, had to put half of the cost of the education for all children of parents who have one British parent and EU parent onto the EU parent, when the child would have been able to get an education here whether the parent was resident or not. It also failed to take into account the "worst case scenario" for service usage that UCL employed.

Oxford University did two studies which found that EU immigration REDUCED waiting times in areas, apart from in deprived areas outside of London between 2004 and 2008 and that this was then corrected.

It is also found that immigrants rely on social housing to a lower level than similarly demographically born UK residents.

EU immigrants are less represented as JSA claimaints where they make up 7%, but they make up 16 % of the workforce, they are only slightly more likely to claim tax credits too 14 %, but 14% of 1.9 million workers is only 266,000 people, which in terms of fiscal spending is very low.

I'd be all for the data to be revealed, but based on the stuff that is out there now, proves this distopian future caused by immigration is not really happening.

Ah Spring you make the classic "lumpy of labour fallacy", the number of jobs in an economy is not fixed!

According to the OUMO:

"In addition to expanding labour supply, immigration can also increase the demand for labour. Migrants expand consumer demand for goods and services. In the medium to long run, immigration can be expected to lead to more investment. Both effects result in greater demand for labour and thus increased wages and employment in the economy. In other words, the number of jobs in an economy is not fixed (the “lump of labour fallacy”)."

www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/labour-market-effects-immigration

The same is thought by NEISR
The home office in 2012 thought if there was an impact it would ve very small in size.

So...

More from the migration observatory:

"Research does not find a significant impact of overall immigration on unemployment in the UK, but the evidence suggests that immigration from outside the EU could have a negative impact on the employment of UK-born workers, especially during an economic downturn"

Nice being right and getting the evidence for it :)

Your EU immigrant family are offset

Excellent!

After 2 months and hundreds of thousands of words we finally have a tacit acknowledgement that my favourite migrant family may not be a net gain to the UK economy.

Now we need to consider just how many 'net contributing' single, healthy migrants on minimum wage living in rented accommodation are actually needed to offset the drain on the economy of my migrant family.

Any takers for that one?

Then we need to consider that;

These academic studies were produced before the Government has released the true immigration figures - so no one outside the Govt or ONS yet knows the true figure

These reports focus on a group of EU migrants whose situations and gain/drain to the economy will change as they progress through life, find parters, have children - become more like my favourite migrant family

These reports feature EU migrants from existing EU member countries and therefore are not based on the habits, customs and behaviours of the next country whose citizens that will have the right to live in the UK - Croatia from 2018, or the effect that country will have on existing EU migration to the UK

These reports feature EU migrants from existing EU member countries and therefore are not based on the habits, customs and behaviours of the next countries that have applied to join the EU and whose citizens that will eventually have the right to live in the UK - Albania, Turkey, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia

The reports are snapshots of the time the research was conducted. They aid predictions rather than dictate what will happen.

Who'd have thought there would be 172,000 Romanians and Bulgarians living in the Uk in 2014?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31519319

Your favourite migrant family may not be a net benefit to the economy, but on the whole immigrants from the EU are.

Your favourite migrant family, although there are obviously some of them, do not make up immigrants on the whole, and are contributing to the economy themselves through the work that they do, the demand they create for goods and services and the positive effect this has. Its called the multiplier effect. Oh and before you start with "someone else would be doing that job" we have already established the immigration has little to no effect on unemployment.

The very specific parameters you set for a migrant family make it so narrow that the numbers are particularly small for a start. Secondly all of your "drain" points are based on the fact that these families don't contribute more to the economy later, get better paid jobs, that their children don't grow up and contribute to the economy.

So we know that immigration doesn't really impact unemployment, it doesn't drive down wages to a great extent, we know that low numbers of EU immigrants impact on services provided by the government,

The reports may be snapshots, but the OUMO uses a great number taken across a large amount of time for its conclusions.

The main finding on all immigration was: "Studies on the 'net fiscal impact' of migration have generally found that, overall, the foreign born make national and local tax contributions that are roughly comparable to the cost of the services and benefits they receive."

But the UCL study came up with the £20 billion net contribution figure of EU immigrants.

When you take into account this factor, and your "future predictions" it would likely stay the same.

Even the right wing migration watch, when it changed the way that UCL calculated its data, only came up with a net deficit of about £2bn, which of course doesn't include things like employers NI contributions (cause the UCL data didn't) and is based on halving the cost of education between EU and British couples (which as previously stated, isn't accurate because the children of British nationals if resident in the UK are entitled to an education anyway).

Now we need to consider just how many 'net contributing' single, healthy migrants on minimum wage living in rented accommodation are actually needed to offset the drain on the economy of my migrant family.

Still no takers?

When considering any reports it is essential to ask - In whose interests is it that I am told this?

The EU tends not to fund research that is anti-EU.

I'm curious to know what the Leave campaign wants to do with migrants who are not net contributors (however you work that out, and over what period).

Should those 172,000 Romanians and Bulgarians be putting plans in place?

Your point about research funding is the only thing you have. In the vast majority of cases it's erroneous ( see past points) and hilarious seeing as you often link to Daniel Hannan and others. Also due to the fact that you repeatedly misrepresent information, for example you keep quoting the figure of 360,000 as EU immigration when in fact it is net migration and more than half is non EU, which many posters have critiqued yet still.continue to do so. Demonstrates a lack of intellectual river to your arguments.

Gah auto correct intellectual rigour

Do the Remainers think immigration to the UK should be limited at all? Open to everyone in the world? Just everyone in the EU? Any limits for new countries joining the EU?

Everyone I've spoken to wants controlled immigration. Letting anyone from anywhere in the world apply, and be accepted/rejected on the strength of their application. So the country can continue to fill any skills gap, but won't get lumbered with loads of the EU's unskilled and impoverished masses.

"So the country can continue to fill any skills gap, but won't get lumbered with loads of the EU's unskilled and impoverished masses

But that isn't what happens is it? Even the immigrants from the EU8 countries have a higher % of graduates than the British population (25% -24). 65% of immigrants from EU14 countries are graduates

One of the reasons we are having this referendum is because immigration has been given as the cause of so many of the things that are wrong in British society, when actually the facts don't add up to that.

Immigration causes unemployment? No it doesn't, check the links above. Immigration causes lower wages? As proved above it causes at 0.6 fall in the wages of the bottom 5% of earners, but actually increases that of middle and higher earners. Immigration causes massive pressure on public services? Nope, that's been disproved by lots of studies. EU Immigrants come and get benefits? They are represented are a lower level than they should be in the unemployment statistics, and 14% claim tax credits. In fact there are far higher numbers of benefit claimants who are British in EU14 countries than there are from those countries here.

Immigrants stop people getting social housing ? Not true.

But I can totally see why immigration is thought to be an issue, when the Euro skeptic press have constantly raised it as an issue.

It isn't immigration that's the problem, it's unlimited and uncontrolled immigration.

It's all supply and demand. One hospital bed, one patient, no problem. One social house, one family, no problem. One school place, one child, no problem. One job vacancy, one qualified applicant, no problem. But what has happened, and continues to happen, is that the numbers of people exceeds the places available.

This is what people are seeing in their daily lives every day.

But EU immigration doesn't have a massive impact on the NHS, 85% of children get their first choice school, EU immigration doesn't impact unemployment either.

The reason you have to look to places like the migration observatory is that "What people are seeing in their daily lives" isn't accurate. What people are seeing is tainted by their own personal preconceived opinions.

EU immigration does have some impact on the NHS (not massive, I agree), and in many other public services. Controlling the numbers allows the country to successfully plan for the future.

EU immigration doesn't have a massive impact on the NHS

Migration Watch: EU Referendum

"EU migrants are generally younger and therefore healthier than the average person but they will call on the NHS in terms of GP and accident and emergency care."

"They also place particular pressure on maternity services, with 64,000 births to EU born women in 2014. Almost one in every ten babies born in the UK has a mother born in the EU."

"In 2014/15 other EU member states reimbursed the NHS £50 million however the UK government paid out £674 million for healthcare of British citizens overseas."

The problems with the NHS and schools have not been caused by lack of accurate information for the future. The Government were aware as early as 2009/ 2010 that there would be challenges in getting some children their first choice school. More could have been done then, but wasn't to the extent needed for a number of reasons.

The whole mantra of Conservative govt is to run public services as lean as possible. So school places or NHS beds or police (etc) are all going to stretched as thin as they dare. There is no way on earth they will ever run the system with more than minimal spare capacity. If spare capacity starts to happen, they will cut staff & funding and the rich we get tax cuts (woohoo).

You're living in Lala land if you think a Tory govt is going to ever run public services any other way. Immigrants or no immigrants, makes no difference.

It goes without saying that if you increase population numbers, you will increase demands on the NHS and schools etc. The exact impact on these services depends on the demographics of migration.

EU migrants tend to be younger and fitter than the average Briton, so they consume less healthcare than average. But they're mainly of childbearing age, so this has an impact on schools.

Let's say for sake of argument (this isn't a prediction) that the UK decided to expel 100,000 working age EU migrants who were not net contributors to public funds. In return, other countries expel the same number of non-contributing Britons - many of these would be older people and retirees, because of the lopsided profile of British migration.

This result would most likely be to reduce the burden on British schools, but to increase the burden on the NHS. Basically, working out the net impacts is not straightforward, and it's important to remember that there are nearly as many Britons in the EU as EU citizens in the UK - and that many british expats are elderly and therefore heavy consumers of health services.

Lurked - The reason you have to look to places like the migration observatory is that "What people are seeing in their daily lives" isn't accurate. What people are seeing is tainted by their own personal preconceived opinions You are a bit off the mark with this one. In the absence of accurate information (and the accuracy of every single report, as we've debated above, can be questioned), people turn to intuition, and intuitive judgements can be surprisingly accurate (professionals use them all the time). Your comment got me thinking to my own personal experiences. In the last five-six years, I have personally witnessed: people defecating in the street (x3), about 25EE immigrants living in a single, small house, having loud alcohol-fuelled all-nighters, a woman with so much face covering that she couldn't see where she was going so that she had to be ushered on and off public transport by her husband, two women with 'grills' over their mouths, a woman herded by a stick (by her husband?), women accompanied by young men to the GP surgery because they could not or would not speak, young girls not allowed or able to join in a PE lesson because of their long skirts and head coverings, large groups of Turkish (my mother spoke to them) men sitting in a cafe daily over a period of many months. I

I know it's not everybody, I know others don't do this, I know that (some) statistics (supposedly) show a different picture, I know, I know, I know. And yet - I didn't see these things before and now I do. And they have affected my quality of life. And I am upset by them. And I care that those young girls are sad because they can't join their classmates.

Personal experience vs statistics.

Btw, I am an immigrant so my preconceived opinions may not be as ripe or fully formed as other people's.

But much of the issues that you identify there are due not Non- EU immigration!

Your experiences are valid, but we have to consider a broader level of evidence, which is why we do the studies.