Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

I want what Norway and Switzerland have neigotiated. They are not in the EU yet I meet lots of Norwegians & Swiss living and working in the EU.

The problem with a Norwegian or Swiss style agreement is that both involve signing up to continued free movement - and would probably also require the UK to join Schengen. All four ETFA signatories are inside the Schengen area. It's hard to imagine an exception being made for the UK.

I am not sure how you sell this to the average leave voter who is convinced of the need to "take back control of our borders" (I'm always tempted to ask: from whom?)

"y 6 per cent of UK businesses trade with the EU, and smaller businesses would have more chance to thrive if we left the EU"

Argh, didn't we do this earlier? For a start that stat is from a Vote Leave piece of data , and its willfully misleading.

76% of businesses don't employ anyone other than the owner. of course they are unlikely to be exporters, and further to that quite unlikely to be massively impacted by costs of meeting EU regulations for export.

Even all the small businesses have to abide by 100 per cent of EU regulations, despite having no say in them.

Yes but how much does EU regulation impact them? Health and Saftey? Product standardisation? Its not a massive cost and that statistic is disingenuous.

The UK is outvoted more than any other member

You do realise UK Changing Europe was the same source I linked to at Full Facts a day or so ago which you discounted because it was EU funded, don't you?

Although the UK is outvoted more than any other member further down the report finds the "UK voted on the winning side 97.4% of the time in 2004-09 period and 86.7% of the time in the 2009-15 period."

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/does-the-uk-win-or-lose-in-the-council-of-ministers/

However voting records don't give the whole picture. Most EU decisions are made by consensus. What happens behind the scenes in committees, shaping & drafting policies is also important.

Comparing what each country wants from a negotiation with what actually happens on the issues that matter most to them the UK is the second most successful country in the EU.

Looking at positions of influence such as who writes reports which determine the parliament’s position on new laws UK MEPs authored more than those from any other country except Germany.

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/is-the-uk-marginalised-in-the-eu-2/

I'm predicting capital flight followed by credit crunch as well as 6-12 months of delfation in the first 2 yrs following a Leave outcome. Will be delighted if I'm wrong.

The Tory government has already drastically cut employment rights, and made them more difficult to access. Tribunal claims have fallen by approx. 80% in the last couple of years.
While we are in the EU they can't cut discrimination rights, the right to minimum annual holiday, etc. I can pretty much guarantee that they will do so if the UK leaves the EU.

While we are in the EU they can't cut discrimination rights, the right to minimum annual holiday, etc. I can pretty much guarantee that they will do so if the UK leaves the EU.

"pretty much guarantee"?

For one thing, I don't suppose Cameron and Osborne will last long after a Brexit. Secondly, we can vote the Tories out before too long. Contrast that with how often we get a referendum on the EU - every 41 years! I dread to think what the EU will get up to in the next 41 years.

If we leave the EU and the Scots leave the UK, we are pretty much gaurenteed tory rule sadly.. but with the Atlantic bridgers running the show. Gove, Fox and Boris, selling everything off and lowering the rights of workers everywhere.

Profit before people, the EU protects many of our rights.

If we leave the EU and the Scots leave the UK, we are pretty much gaurenteed tory rule sadly.

but with the Atlantic bridgers running the show. Gove, Fox and Boris, selling everything off and lowering the rights of workers everywhere.

Profit before people, the EU protects many of our rights.

Those are Left wing socialist views. Socialists used to be anti-EU (Tony Benn hated the EU), the Socialist Workers Party and Communist Party still are. As is one one the co-founders of the Green Party in the UK, which was also historically anti-EU.

I think we are starting to understand why socialists are now pro-EU. Because they know that while Scotland continues to vote SNP and while Corbyn remains leader, the Labour party will be forever unelectable.

So they think that, in the absence of power in the Westminster Parliament, they can obtain more socialist policies, workers rights etc from the EU. In essence, let's by-pass Uk domestic democracy and grab what we can from the EU.

It is the ultimate admission of Labour's defeat.

It's also an illusion.

Luckily, it's not a view shared on the streets when people tell me that they will be voting LEAVE and identify themselves Labour voters. because outside the metropolis people understand that what the EU appear to give, the EU can also take away.

Views like 'the Tories will take away workers rights are just risible and show a woeful insistence on refusing to admit the reality that the Tories have just increased the minimum wage - what a terrible thing to do to the workers!!

True socialists understand that the law of supply and demand means that if you have a cheap and plentiful workforce (EU migrants) then wages remain low - as admitted by the leader of the REMAIN campaign - Lord Rose. So voting to REMAIN in the EU is shafting your fellow workers comrades - or don't those outside the metropolitan champagne socialist elite count any more?

What I find so hilarious in watching these deluded REMAIn voters placing their heads on the block in the name of 'workers rights, is their insistence that the big banks, the big corporation and the hedge funds have the interests of the British workers at their hearts and are funding the REMAIN campaign to ensure that British workers continue to enjoy the rights that big corporations give to them - come on. Get real. Don't moan amount Tories and then try to say how good the big banks are for the working man.

The big banks and big corporations want you to vote REMAIN because it is good for them. Not for you. They couldn't give a stuff about your workers rights - they just want you to vote to stay in the EU so they and their 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels can continue to influence the EU into making laws that suit them - and enrich them and the REMAIN voters are just the gullible pawns assisting them in their game.

The European Social Model on which the EU was built was a worthy ideal - but it has long since lost any merit and is now a neoliberal confidence trick - with REMAIN voters are the fall guys.

Here has never been a labour majority without significant numbers of Scottish MPs. It is unlikely that with English and Welsh seats alone that there would be ano through labour government. So your promises of getting rid of the tories look pretty bleak.

You always back your statements with "its not what people see".. it doesn't mean anything!

Here has never been a labour majority without significant numbers of Scottish MPs. It is unlikely that with English and Welsh seats alone that there would be ano through labour government. So your promises of getting rid of the tories look pretty bleak.

Your last few posts have helped me enormously to understand why you feel the way you do.

Its a view that is alien to me, but I have never been a Labour voter so am not especially upset that they won't be forming a Government soon. However, I utterly loathe the current Tory Government and I am physically aching for an effective Opposition.

But I don't think that replacing the failing Opposition by vesting your hopes in the EU is a sensible solution. The EU showed scant regard for the workers rights in Ireland or Greece as it insisted on pension and salary cuts in its austerity drive.The original aims of the EU, to provide the head of the family with a living wage, protected by union membership is something that has been totally lost as the EU has evolved - as evidenced by the fact the big corporations are backing REMAIN. Look their tax-dodging activities, look at how they cut workers benefits when the minimum wage was recently increased. No, it's delusional to think that big Corpa will protect workers rights.

I can actually forsee a future Labour Government, which is something that most Labour voters seem to be unable to countenance at present. I can forsee the SNP crashing and burning and people returning to Labour, but first Labour has to deal with its own problems and ditch Corbyn. Once the Scots return to Labour a UK Labour Government under someone like Dan Jarvis is a distinct possibility again.

But when the next UK Labour Government takes power it will find its hands just as bound by the EU. It wouldn't be able to renationalise the railways - or support British industries or carry out many of the policies it would probably want to implement. It could find itself taking orders from a very Right-wing cabal of EU Ministers. What then?

That's why it's better to LEAVE, take control back and work like stink to get yourself an electable Opposition that can win in 2020 - instead of vesting your future in the undemocratic EU.

I don't place my hopes in the EU, I think you are just contrarian, you refuse to agree any point what so ever.

The stuff about shafting our fellow comrades?

You realise that unemployment is low right now, and was low up until 2008-2010, at that point it was caused by the market crash. You realise that we need workers in this country to pay taxes, to support the large number of pensioners?

You can talk about lowering wages all you like, but the fact is that there have been lots of studies on it found many different results, it is far from as simple as "more migrants caused lower wages." Over simplification, however, it is probably likely to say that it caused slower growth in wages in unskilled labour rates, but actually higher rates of pay at the top end of the jobs market. However as there are many other impacts om wages and the rate that they are paid at (geography, levels of cyclical and structural unemployment, areas with skills shortages etc) it is difficult to isolate a causality, it is not as simple as saying: "immigrants lower wages."

What Jonathan Portes said about Theresa May's speech was ( and I believe you have quoted him before):

"The MAC analysis found that, overall, looking at all immigrants over the entire time period for which data was available, there was no statistically significant impact of migration on employment. They then cut the data in various different ways, and ran 15 different regressions. For 11, there was no statistically significant impact; for four, there was. May is highlighting one of the four."

See, not simple, not easy.

Also, an issue you don't tackle is that without immigrants we would have skills shortages, this leads to higher rates for skilled labour, and higher labour costs for firms, driving cost push inflation and lowering our international competitiveness. This would lead to higher levels of unemployemnt.

There is also the factor to consider that as we have been through a time of economic turmoil since 2008 that people have been willing to accept lower wages in order to stay in jobs, more part time, zero hours and self employed work has become more common. All of this drives down average wages analysis too.

It really isn't as simple as you make it out to be.

I don't place my hopes in the EU,

Many do.

I think you are just contrarian, you refuse to agree any point what so ever.

Oh dear, you started so well - and now we're back to name-calling because I refuse to agree with your views.

Anyone who honestly thinks that mass uncontrolled migration from the EU does not lower wages is living on another planet .with those who think that hospitals and schools are elastic.

It's not worth the effort any more Lurked.

DH works in finance and may well lose his job with a brexit, I am entitled to an Irish passport and will be applying for one if we leave.
I don't especially want to leave the uk but we may have no choice

Will move home to Ireland. Born in Belfast and would love an excuse to return home. Though obviously I would move to the republic.

Jeannie I don't think healthcare would be charged to Ireland in this situation. Having a passport doesn't in itself entitle you to a European health insurance card (EHIC) - you have to actually be resident and signed up to the country's healthcare system. So, as a British citizen living abroad, I have no right to an EHIC issued by the NHS.

without immigrants we would have skills shortages

After we leave the EU we'd be free to more easily allow migrants from around the world to move here, on terms decided by the UK. There would be a greater number of skilled people who'd find it easier to come to the UK.

Will move home to Ireland. Born in Belfast and would love an excuse to return home. Though obviously I would move to the republic.

I wonder what would happen to the Irish-UK border? We were in Ireland last summer and while I knew that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is no longer subject to controls, I was surprised (somewhat naively - but I'd never really thought about it before) that there are no border controls between the Irish Republic and the Welsh ferry ports.

Here has never been a labour majority without significant numbers of Scottish MPs. It is unlikely that with English and Welsh seats alone that there would be ano through labour government.

Not necessarily true at all. If Scotland leaves the UK the political landscape in England and Wales could change as a result. We're used to seeing a change of government fairly regularly in the UK and I think that requirement would continue. British people do get fed up with governments that end up going too far after a while, and the other main party will probably get in for a while.

So, as a British citizen living abroad, I have no right to an EHIC issued by the NHS

and neither should you have if you are living permanently abroad.

The EHIC is for temporary access to another country's health system.

valid European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) gives card holders the right to access state-provided healthcare on temporary stays in other European Economic Area (EEA) countries or Switzerland.

If you are living permanently in another country and paying your taxes to that country then you should also make the same provisions as ordinary citizens of that country do.

Ireland has always had a different relationship with the UK.

British people do get fed up with governments that end up going too far after a while, and the other main party will probably get in for a while.

Very true.

Governments don't win elections, they lose them.

Newsnight has gone a bit off-message tonight. t's even talking about ever closer union.

I am expecting a power cut soon.

Its been proved before that EU immigration doesn't cause an extra weight on the NHS and that that while 85% or so of children get their first choice primary/secondary school, there are no councils that have failed to provide a statutory school place for children.

Now that 15 % of children might be for any number of reasons, especially in London, you know siblings, special needs, children in care, distance etc, but the difference between the birth rate to UK mothers and Non UK mothers is 0.4. (1.8 and 2.2 respectively), which is not a massive difference. UK mothers also make up the vast majoirty ( as immigration as whole only counts for 12% of the population)

The OUMO also states that as most EU migrants are young and do not have children that they tend not to put pressure on services.

It isn't EU immigration placing strain on the schools system. More likely a fall in the number of places under Labour ( which were axed due to surplus spaces at the time), and the fact that far more parents have become competitive about getting kids into schools. Just think about mumsnet when the primary school "choice" is going on, loads and loads of people put down a school they have no hope of getting in to!

"There would be a greater number of skilled people who'd find it easier to come to the UK."

This is just another point that Brexiters make up, you have no idea what we would be doing with immigration, there isn't a set policy on it.

In fact a policy which seeks to lower migration to the "tens of thousands" as some Brexiters would have it, would see much tighter restrictions on both EU and non EU ( of whom there are more). Not "better" or a points based system ( which both Australia and Canada used to target growth in their populations)

As EU immigration doesn't have an effect on unemployment but boosts productivity you'd also find that there would be an outcry from business too. Although this might lead to an increase in investment and training (or realocation for larger firms).

There are very difficult policy issues to deal with here and it isn't the panacea you are making it out to be.

Good information on the effect of immigration on labour markets is found here:

www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/labour-market-effects-immigration

On the lower wages point it says: "ach 1% increase in the share of migrants in the UK-born working age population leads to a 0.6% decline in the wages of the 5% lowest paid workers and to an increase in the wages of higher paid workers."

It is a truth universally recognised that:

360,000 additional people coming to the UK to live from the EU place no additional burden on schools, hospitals or houses. None at all.

it is a truth universally accepted that:

migrants REDUCE hospital waiting lists. The more migrants the easier you will get a GP appointment. More migrants please.

It is a truth universally accepted that:

a migrant family (that between them consume £8K of local healthcare services) working on minimum wage with a wife and 2 school age children (consuming £8K of the local education budget) and living in rented accommodation in London are a huge contributor to the UK economy.
Let's have more EU migrant families like that who enrich our economy by approx minus £5,000 a year . Let's send out search parties for them like Mandelson did.

It is a truth universally accepted that:

The NHS would crumble before our eyes if we changed from a system that permitted unlimited numbers of EU citizens to come and live in this country to a system that welcomed migrants from across the world to come to the UK to share their skills in the NHS. No we just want to stick to the health workers from 28 EU countries - let's ignore the rest of the world. We are 'Little Europeans' do'ntcha know. We are not Little Englanders., (who are actually Whole Worlders)

And anyone who questions this is a heretic for daring to disagree with the University of Lalaland.