I blame Escape to the Country!

[Mini712]

Is anyone else in the same situation?

My parents retired 12 years ago & decided to retire to Dorset. At the time, I was pretty upset that they were moving away from me and my young family but accepted their decision.
During those 12 years they have had an amazing retirement, living in a beautiful part of the country and travelling the world with fancy holidays & cruises galore! But more recently their health has started to fail so they can’t do as much anymore and Mum in particular is feeling a bit isolated which as meant they now want to see us more. They come and stay with us regularly(usually for at least a week!) every other month but we live 3 hours away so we can’t just pop in for a cup of tea.
I am now feeling guilty as I don’t want them to feel lonely but also resentment as it wasn’t me that moved in the first place!
Last saw them 2 weeks ago when they stayed with us for a week but now getting pressure from Mum to see them over Easter. Should I cave in and see them even though I had planned to spend Easter with hubby & sons?

By the way I have a brother but he rarely calls them, let alone visits or has them to stay

Any thoughts would be appreciated ❤️

@Iwasafool no, its rising, from national statistics:

We have also published single year life tables for the UK and its constituent countries. These show that life expectancy at birth was 79.0 years for males and 82.9 years for females in 2022, an increase from 78.5 years and 82.5 years for males and females, respectively, in 2021

and:

There are currently over 21 million people aged 50 and over in England. This represents 38% of the population, up from 32% in 1981 – an increase of 6.8 million people (47%). Over 10 million people – almost one in five (18%) of us – are aged 65 and over. This is an increase of over 3.5 million (or 52%) since 1981.

from centre for better ageing

Well statistics are always fun. From ONS Life expectancy at birth fell in all four UK nations in 2020 to 2022 compared with 2017 to 2019

Yes the "death tax" met a similar fate - its not a party thing, both parties have failed to get traction on this subject. There was a lot of spin from the usual culprits but much of that was responding to public opinion rather than being a generator.

Its the same with any long term planning - neither party can indulge in the kind of long term planning we need to restructure healthcare, improve education or plan infrastructure for wider benefits because if they can't show miracles before the next election they will be punished by voters. Whoever is in opposition will be leading the punishment calls.

Its the old problem that everyone says they support more taxes on health/education/social care etc but when faced with a straight choice they very rarely vote for it. Short term gains and self interest are more popular and have been for most of the last 40+ years.

I guess that the difference between this statistic and the previously quoted one that people are living longer (age they die in 2023/24) might be that the statisticians expect life expectancy to peak and fall back again before babies born today die?

So for example, life expectancy might peak at 85 then start falling back before children born today die at an average of 82.

To predict life expectancy for babies born today there is going to be a lot of guesswork and modelling e.g. about obesity at a population level and the effect of medical advances versus overburdened health and care services.

The above (falling life expectancy at birth) could be completely wrong. Imagine for example society using safe anti obesity drugs that reduce all the associated harms or having safe and effective cures for many types of cancer. Cancer survival rates for many types of cancer have already rocketed compared to a few decades ago.

With kids going hungry and an overburdened NHS I have no faith in life expectancy increasing, not for all groups in society anyway.

To be honest with you I have no idea how they calculate it, might be the back of a fat packet for all I know none the less the ONS statistic I gave said it was falling in 2020 to 2022.

Just looked it up and this is what the ONS says

We produce national life tables annually for the UK and its constituent countries, using past mortality rates; these are calculated on a period basis and are based on past mortality experience. The life tables are based on three consecutive years’ worth of data to reduce the effect of annual fluctuations in the number of deaths caused by seasonal events, such as flu.
We also produce past and projected period and cohort life tables, which provide historical and projected statistics for 50 years into the future. They are produced biennially, based on assumptions for future mortality from the national population projections (NPPs).
We also publish the decennial (English) life tables for England and Wales. They provide period life expectancy for males and females by single year of age for the three-year period centred on a census and are published every 10 years.
To find out more about life expectancy, please see the related publications or email [email protected].

I wonder what happened during those two years? Hmm... 🤔

Assisted death won’t make any difference. It’ll be for people within 6 months of death from a terminal illness and of sound mind at that point. The bulk of care is for those with mild cognitive impairment or dementia and that won’t be affected.

*There are currently over 21 million people aged 50 and over in England. This represents 38% of the population, up from 32% in 1981 – an increase of 6.8 million people (47%). Over 10 million people – almost one in five (18%) of us – are aged 65 and over. This is an increase of over 3.5 million (or 52%) since 1981. *

that’s the result of the boomers moving through the system and will be a temporary effect. In 20 years you can expect the number of deaths to increase for no other reason than that the boomers are reaching old age.

So only old people will be making that decision? I don't think so, plenty of younger people looking at 20 30 40 or more years living with pain and needing care might well opt out and that will affect mortality rates.

By the way the elderly relative I have LPA for has advanced dementia and other issues. Eight months ago her GP rang me and said she is unlikely to last the weekend. She's still going strong. I wonder how they will work out that six months? I might be a cynic but it is a hard thing to prove isn't it.

I don't follow. If boomers are dying because they are old that isn't reducing life expectancy is it? Younger people dying (obesity, smoking, no exercise etc) that reduces life expectancy.

Or do you mean the number of people dying will increase? Yes that is logical but doesn't mean life expectancy is changed which is what we were talking about.

The increase in life expectancy was reducing before 2020, there were times in 2020 and 2021 when the mortality rate fell below expected levels.

@saffronflower The publication you quoted from also said “Life expectancy in the UK in 2020 to 2022 fell to approximately the level of a decade earlier (2010 to 2012) for males and for females”

The reason for the discrepancy is that the main figures smooth out the curve by averaging over 3 years to reduce fluctuations caused by temporary events such as a flu (or Covid) epidemic.

For reasons known only to itself, the google algorithm chose to highlight the single year (unsmoothed) figures in the search result, and if you didn’t click on the link and read where it came from, you wouldn’t have seen that ONS says “However, single year life tables show figures that are typically more volatile than three-year average life tables. This is particularly the case recently because of the mortality associated with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This makes single year life tables a less robust indicator of mortality trends. For this reason, they should not be used alone to draw conclusions about longer-term trends.” (my emphasis).

The reason they are published is that researchers also have a need for the annual figures if they’re looking at a single year rather than overall trends.

That’s what you were talking about, but @saffronflower (I think it was) brought in a different topic.

I was responding to the quote that said there were more over 50’s. I think that had been brought into the discussion (mistakenly) as further evidence of increasing life expectancy, and I was commenting that it had nothing to do with it.

And the smoothing over three years helps to reduce the fluctuations due to one off events.

Younger people dying (obesity, smoking, no exercise etc) that reduces life expectancy. Or older people dying earlier (lack of carers, inability to get to increasingly centralised facilities, etc)

And of course the two results are not contradictory, they’re different calculations.

Bit like a government celebrating one year when crime figures have dropped slightly when the overall trend is inexorably upwards.

I dotn know, if their health is failing now and potentially there is not long left to have nice memories with them, would you have rather have those memories or are you not bothered. The ball is in your court really, do you want more time with them or not. Some families are super close and some happy to be apart so you need to decide what you want, if its more time with your parents in their twilight years then you will have to draw a line under blaming them for moving and go and see them.

I guess that the difference between this statistic and the previously quoted one that people are living longer (age they die in 2023/24) might be that the statisticians expect life expectancy to peak and fall back again before babies born today die? No, the difference is the “falling” one has been smoothed by averaging over 3 years to reduce the effect of single-year fluctuations (like an epidemic) and try to get to the underlying rate.

The talk is around those in the last 6 months of life, whether older or younger people. (I didn’t say anything about only older people making that decision). And those numbers will be too small to make any difference.

Where does it say we are only talking about the last six months of life? I was replying to a post that this was part of Totally agree! and its only going to get worse as life expectancy is rising So yes talking about life expectancy which I don't think is going to go on rising. The increase has been slowing for years and with other issues e.g. poverty and NHS problems, isn't likely to keep increasing.

This started off with talking about elderly parents and their needs which can be an issue for years not just six months so not sure why you think we can only talk about six months.

All the talk about assisted dying is about allowing it for people in the last few months of a terminal disease,and that’s certainly what the proposed Scottish legislation is saying. So, no, I don’t think bringing in assisted dying is likely to have a measurable effect on expected life.

I agree with you that I don’t think life expectancy will start rising again, because of obesity, increased levels of poverty, antibiotic resistance etc. I just don’t think assisted dying is going to contribute in any measureable degree.

My brother died 2 weeks ago aged 57 - he had been given 4 months. I think he accelerated his death deliberately and died after 3 weeks. I have heard of quite a few deaths in his age group recently. I don't think I'll reach the age of my parents who are in their early 80s and still going to the gym.

I'm so sorry for your loss Manthide.

I think the shortage of GPs and the difficulty of getting an appointment will be a bigger factor in the lowering of life expectancy. If my brother had been able to see a gp when he needed one he would probably still be alive.