How accurate are GCSE predicted grades compared with actual results?

[MisleadingGCSEPredictions]

My stepdaughter went into her GCSEs predicted two 8s, 3 7s, a 6 and a 5. She got an 8, five 5s and a 3.

She's disappointed and this changes her options for college and university. She knows deep down, I think, that she didn't work hard enough.

However, I'm puzzled as to how this happened. How has the school (and her) got it so wrong?

I'm wondering if they haven't been completely honest with parents, and also a bit of me wonders if she knew that the predictions she was given were wildly optimistic.

Or is this just normal and the predictions are just rough guesses?

My daughter was predicted 6’s and 7’s. She was in set 1 for everything and top of the class. She got all 9’s. The college she wanted to attend would only allow higher grades than what she was predicted so she didn’t apply. Now she has done exceptionally well and all the places at top colleges have been taken. I’m so angry with the school. they said they aren’t allowed to predict grades higher than a 7!

Probably her shit mother who clearly hasn't supported her in any way.

Hate to say it but 4 very academic a levels were never going to be a good idea even if those predicted grades were achieved. Many teachers will tell you about the huge jump from gcse to A level.

it sounds to me that she’ll be on a better and more realistic path unless she absolutely works her socks off and then she can always reapply with grades in hand.

This is awful and your anger is justified. Hope you can get her on waiting lists etc and have been making phone calls as you never know

My daughter's were pretty accurate - 1 was one grade above and 3 were 1 grade below, everything else as predicted. She didn't work particularly hard, the grade above was my subject which I tutored her in so she definitely did more revision for that than anything else, so the discrepancy tracks quite clearly.

DDs were all within 1 grade of the target.. only 1 subject did she move down one grade.
A levels are much harder than GCSEs so it's good guidance to only take on what you got atleast a 7 in and I'd say for maths you are looking at an 8 minimum. TBH with the grade predictions I'm surprised the school was suggesting 4 A levels.

We had awful mocks. Twice. Target grades were 3-4 grades higher than mocks.
I have no idea how anything was pulled out of the bag but it was. Despite seemingly no work being done. So no 8’s but all 7’s (apart from the one we said to just forget about as the mock was a grade 2. Twice. Which ended up a 3)

Yes, I think perhaps she's now on a more realistic pathway. She got her 8 in maths and will be doing a maths A level. She's talking about trying to get on an A level for one of the 5s but I remember how big the jump was from GCSE to A level myself and I don't feel it's a great idea to do an A level with less than a 7, although PPs obviously disagree on this.

Unfortunately this is not down to the school, they obviously thought she was capable of achieving those scores according to her mocks and class work, but ultimately she just did not work hard enough. She did not revise enough, nor did she take it seriously if she was off on holiday and having fun. I would be suggesting she perhaps retake maths and English if she did not attain a good score whilst doing her BTECs.

She got an 8 in maths and two 5s in English so I'm not seeing what the benefit of resitting those would be.

@MisleadingGCSEPredictionsi only said to resit those if she didn’t attain the grades she needed.

What alevels did she want to do and what is now the btec @MisleadingGCSEPredictions

It can be hard to make accurate predictions. Assessment data is used but the grade boundaries change over time and you have to allow for improvement if students seem to be working hard leading up to the final exams. It's difficult to know how much revision they will actually do or how they will manage the workload over the exam period.

Plus these days many pupils can find copies of last year's paper online forcing schools to mix up the papers used or use some from third party providers which then can be difficult to grade properly compared to actual past papers.

If she got an 8 in maths, why can’t she do further maths as well as maths a level?

It sounds as though the main problem was lack of revision and lack of focus during the exams.

A different school for sixth form would have been a good idea but it feels a bit late now.

It might be possible to restart year 12 next year somewhere else doing the subjects she would prefer.

What exact subjects did she get each grade for, what A levels/degree did she want to do, and what ALevel/Btec combination is she being made to do?

Her predicted grades didn’t suggest 4 very academic A levels and a Russel group university. That would need 9s, 8s, a couple of 7s maybe, nothing below a 7. I agree with you, she didn’t revise very well, and instead of trying to get better grades than predicted with an eye on her A level choices, she relaxed into thinking she would get the predictions.
She can resit some, would she think of doing that ? What would she like to do after school ?

My daughter did better in everything apart from Maths in the real thing.

Because the U was in Further Maths. She got a 7 in the mock so no idea what happened there.

I don't want to be too outing on this thread but in summary, she was supposed to do well in maths and science and ended up not doing so well in science.

Obviously PPs here run the whole gamut from thinking that 7s and 8s aren't good enough and she clearly wasn't academic to begin with to thinking that she should be trying to do A levels with 5s. I got mostly As, which are now 7s, and a couple of A*s and those were considered very good results at the time and certainly on track for wherever I wanted to go, had my neurodiversity not caught up with me at A level.

It really does vary school to school. My school used to use mock results as a stick to beat kids they thought were being lazy into realisation they would only get a C or D. Some schools mark very harshly and then when GCSE results are out they can say "pupils scored 1 grade higher than predicted!" for example on websites. Other schools err on side of caution and seem to mark fair to generous to get kids more confidence. I personally think if the end of year exams prior (Y10) and mocks the year before actual GCSE are actual past papers and marked with the actual year's results as banding the results are more likely to be accurate.

It’s astonishing that she got an 8 in maths and a U in add maths. Does she have her script back yet, has there been any missed pages or anything?

Personally I think the top grades at GCSEs are now just really competitive. The kids who work hard are learning it all for months, some have tutors etc etc. the triple Sciences are extremely content heavy and very specific. Same with History, English lit etc etc You can be capable of getting a high grade IF you put in all the legwork. And sometimes they just don’t. I don’t think it is necessarily too late to start with tons of work at A level but you have to be ultra motivated to do so. And who wants to take a massive risk to do that if you aren’t sure about how a child actually feels about that. It has to come from them.
Physics and Chemistry A levels are extremely competitive and so is further maths. It is a cohort inhabited by top achievers now - whatever anyone else says on MN. If a child really wants to do it and still has options for uni for Cs and Ds etc then fine if they really love the subject. Same for further maths. Some kids are OK with not getting high grades, some aren’t. My year 13 has just dropped out of FM although she loves it, because she really does not want to risk getting a B. No amount of me telling her that a B is absolutely fine is going to change that.