How accurate are GCSE predicted grades compared with actual results?

[MisleadingGCSEPredictions]

My stepdaughter went into her GCSEs predicted two 8s, 3 7s, a 6 and a 5. She got an 8, five 5s and a 3.

She's disappointed and this changes her options for college and university. She knows deep down, I think, that she didn't work hard enough.

However, I'm puzzled as to how this happened. How has the school (and her) got it so wrong?

I'm wondering if they haven't been completely honest with parents, and also a bit of me wonders if she knew that the predictions she was given were wildly optimistic.

Or is this just normal and the predictions are just rough guesses?

One of mine couldn't break the barrier between three plus and four all through his mocks he got the same on his gcse just a few marks off a four so he did a retake again in his mocks he was just a few marks off a four went into it trying his best as usual he got a five everyone was thrilled and his teacher was BOUNCING for him (autistic doesn't tend to go nuts tends to go quieter when he is happy)

So they are not always accurate

She already had 2 8s and a 6 from last year so an overall tally of 4 8s, 4 7s (I forgot one subject earlier), 2 6s, a 5 and a distinction in a BTEC (which she did achieve) would have been a very respectable set of results. Her feedback from teachers has been consistently excellent throughout secondary. Unfortunately, 3 8s, a 6, a distinction, 6 5s and a U (and the U was a predicted 8) is a very different picture. It's a good school so I'm surprised that the result didn't match the idea she was given but then perhaps they thought she'd be more focused over the exam period. Her mock results were a lot better sadly.

Our school over-predicted grades in English across all levels. Multiple kids across all sets were dropping 2-3 grades compared to predictions from Y10 and mocks in Y11. My son was predicted 7/8s and got a 5/6. He’s really upset, he was complacent about his poor SPAG, saying it must be OK because of his predicted high grades. Sadly, it wasn’t. He has aspirations for top STEM unis and a 5 in English language won’t cut it. He’s going to re-sit for a higher grade in November. All his other grades were in line with predictions and 7-9.
While I can see that predicting lower grades may be demoralising for some, I know my son would have worked harder on his SPAG if he had been told he was on for a 5 not an 7/8.
To me it feels like the English department were not in tune with the expectations of the exam board.

For your step-daughter, how come she can’t do 3 A-levels when she got 4 8s in total? Why the BTECs?

We had the opposite. Dd had low predicted grades, think the highest was a 6 and ended up with 9s and 8s (has adhd so didn't focus in class but crammed for exams). As per previous post if your dd has 4 8s Ive no idea why she would only be doing 1 ALevel. I understand she cant do further maths if her maths gcse was 7 or under but she could definitely do 3 ALevels.

Sadly, the other 8s are in subjects not offered by the school as an A level which is baffling as they're not outlandish subjects.

I would look at other 6th form colleges then. Surely it will harm your daughters prospects to be faffing around with BTECS and 1 ALevel.

This is 100% known to be true in our local schools. My children and most of their friends were predicted 7-9’s in almost all subjects. Even when it was clear that some of them were likely to (and actually did) fail all subjects. I find it very strange

My son went from 5 in English language/literature to 9/8. He got a teacher who really inspired him and he worked extremely hard. His teacher said she cried when she saw his marks. so many things affect marks and the importance of having a good inspiring teacher.

Opposite here, DC went up 3-6 grades for majority of subjects. School had little faith to be honest, basically wrote her off at an early age. They worked their arse off and has been revising solidly since Xmas and started on adhd meds. Now off to do a levels (elsewhere for a fresh start).

I don't think she has much choice now with middling results and a week to go until term starts.

4 8s, 4 7s and 2 6's isn't really middling results. She has 8 grade A's. She'd get into most 6th form colleges with her results and its only a few days after results so not too late to enquire. Seems crazy and an absolute waste of her time to be doing 1 Alevel and Btec. Almost unbelievable to be honest

Oh come on. Those are not middling results.

I know. Its baffling isn't it. Theres no way a child wouldn't be able to do 3 A Levels with those grades. Sounds like shes getting some terrible advice from somewhere

That shit show in lockdown was in part due to senior management. I had a student who was desperate to go to medical school. He did very well at GCSE ( 2018) but by the time we were at Christmas 2018 it was clear he was not going to get stellar grades at A level.Not from lack of effort , he could regurgitate information but that's not enough.End of year 12 - C grades in all his subjects. Mocks in Jan 2020 C/ D grades. The estimated grades me and his other teachers gave were B/C. Senior management got hold of it and lo and behold straight A's. Crazy.

They're very similar to what my DS got. He went on to do History, Biology and Psychology A levels and a degree in Marine Biology.

BTECs are not lesser.

Her results are not middling and she doesn't have to apply to a former polytechnic, unless she wants to do that.

A U if an 8 was predicted seems hugely out there, though. I would request to see the script for that (and for the 3) as it's not unheard of that pages get missed and not marked.

Is your ex-wife on MN, OP? Just curious.

We are told to be aspirational’, and to change them if they’re low (realistic), it’s a load of bollocks and don't get me started on the lockdown shit show

Follow SLT newbie , it’s so accurate it’s frightening !

That was her predictions.

What she got in the end was 3 8s, 1 6, 6 5s and a U. She needs a minimum of 7 to do an A level in any subject and of the 3 8s, only one is offered as an A level by her school. The other colleges nearby are quite competitive and she'd need to have met her predictions to have any chance, even if applications hadn't closed months ago.

The unis she was previously considering she would have needed straight As at A level. I'm surprised people have been allowed to do A levels with 5s, all the colleges I've seen have said 6 at an absolute minimum but hers is 7. With 2 BTECs and an A level there really isn't a wide choice of Unis which will consider you for a pure maths degree. Nothing wrong with BTECs at all but most places want you to have Maths and Further Maths backed up with sciences or Computing.

It's my husband's ex and doubt it, she's not really a forums sort of person. Why?

(edited to add that she has submitted the U for a remark.)

The thing about school's predicting grades is if the cohort across the country performs really well then other good students get their grades pushed down when the grade curve is applied. I remember a teacher saying that a child just has to do better than most of the other students sitting it.

It isn't a fair playing field anyway, there are parents who have paid a lot of money either through privately educating their child or with a tutor to ensure their child performs to a higher level.

My own children's predicted grades were pretty much spot on.

Not all children taking A levels are going on to university and so don't need high grades for A level. Also they may not have had the best time at school for GCSEs and may thrive doing A levels at a completely different college or sixth form.

All you can do now is support her with her studies. It is worrying that she is not taking any accountability for her grades and personally I would be wanting to see the script of her U grade.

I understand from teacher friends that the Year 6 SATS are a big part of predicted grades. DS didn’t do SATS (due to Covid) so had teacher assessed grades. He is an August baby so didnt really catch up academically with his cohort until about year 9. So his predicted grades were low - even though he got 8s and 7s in his mocks, his predicted grades stayed the same. He did really well in his actual exams (8s and 7s) so I would take the predicted grades with a pinch of salt.

For what it’s worth, my DS got a couple of 7’s, a couple of 6’s and 5’s in his GCSE’s (teacher assessed due to Covid). He went on to get Astar, A A in his A-Levels and is now at a very respected Uni about to go into his 3rd year and on track to get a First. They are not middling results and she should not be pushed into doing something she doesn’t want to do because they aren’t a perfect set of all 9’s.

Ds was predicted low grades - especially in French grade 5 (it really annoyed him - he got grade 9, predicted 6 in science got 9,8. He was definitely a child they always unestimated - and it wasn't to do with his Sats - he had higher scores than his twin.

Our school defintely under predict. I think the predictions were a couple of 8’s, 3 or 4 x 7, a couple of 6’s and a 5. End result was 4x9, 3x8, 2x7

To a certain extent it comes from the parents to set expectations. We didn’t make any arrangements to do anything / go away after Feb half term. We got tutors after mocks to plug a couple of gaps and then left them to it. It helped that their friends families were similar so there wasn’t really anyone to do anything with even if thy wanted too. They also used some awful app where you plug your revision hours against other people. I did point out it doesn’t mean they’re actually doing anything!