Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 7

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads discussing VAT on independent school fees. The thread title is a headline from a Times article last autumn.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5237575-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5242586-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-2
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5280646-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-3
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-4
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5317397-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-5
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5337850-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-6

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@twistyizzyyou’re paying for a terrible Labour policy and it’s awful that people can’t see the impact.

Really awful to see, but many do know how bad it is for dc.

@twistyizzy , I am so sorry.

I don’t believe that the supporters ever will admit to the issues around the policy. It was not analysed properly, introduced at a time to squeeze out every last penny of desperate parents and it fits into an overall us vs them agenda.

It is ugly but people fell for it. Some genuinely believe that private schools are a luxury for SEND parents - and that private education is unpleasant and should be taxed heavily (many wishing that private schools disappeared overall).

admitting this would force them to (at least to themselves) admit to either being easily fooled or to being spiteful. They want to continue to believe that they are good people on the right side of history.

Unfortunately the money for state schools will never materialise, and labour’s plans for state schools are very worrying (curriculum, access, etc). I am increasingly believing that the best thing to do is to focus everything on our own children whichever schools they are in. The social contract is broken.

“For me the policy is simply about raising a bit more money in a way that protects people on medium and low incomes.”
and “Plus it raises much needed money.”
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-politics-of-envy

So here is S Freedman’s Substack. If he only supported the policy if it raises money, then what? Supposedly much needed money. So how much does this policy actually raise (not what they projected or claimed, but actual take, given they ambushed January 2025 to get as much as possible)? Labour should be able to answer some of that now.

So now going on about those who campaigned like @twistyizzy group - who I think are just a parental group - that is prime victim gaslighting. Is it not?
Why not just admit you were wrong. The policy is unlikely to raise much money at all, may lose money.
It is exactly the type of policy described in Failed State by the author himself. It actually looks like it was created deliberately to enter a dialogue with the more right leaning press, entangling valuable government time in pointless shenanigans for no gain. Leading to outflows out of the country. And no long term policy planning or accountability either.

@HooverIsAlwaysBrokenyes I agree.

@twistyizzyI hope you don’t feel pushed out from posting on the issue as I’m grateful for your efforts to oppose this incredibly bad policy.

Twistyizzy… agree with a lot what you say but don’t want to get involved with the arguments on here. Just want to say it is great to hear a voice from the NE. I hope all of us caught up in this (schools, parents and pupils) can weather the storm.

also wanted to add @twistyizzy , I have really appreciated all your data and comments. If I can make a very gentle suggestion (but please disregard if you like), try to care less about what people making abusive comments say. You will never convince them, regardless of the quality of your arguments.

However, continuing to post factual updates on the complete (and increasing) mess the eduction policies (both VAT and state schools) are in, will force them to internalise any doubts which will cause a mental load - and annoy them….

Another here echoing thanks to @twistyizzy .

I think a lot of posters may feel differently if it was their child who was directly affected.

The thing is, their children will be affected by current labour policies and societal changes, it is just taking longer to hit.

A) tinkering with the equality act to ensure that school admissions are based on parental occupations (disadvantage for MC parents), b) dumbing down the curriculum to ensure that more pupils pass / receive higher grades, c) less demand for graduates (as AI can do most basic tasks graduates can do) and d) full labour right from day 1 (making it impossible to get rid of unsuitable candidates), who will hire young people?

Unless you have connections… but I don’t believe that that was the intention with these policies.

tinkering with the equality act to ensure that school admissions are based on parental occupations (disadvantage for MC parents)

I think there was a planned consultation about how to make Good state schools more inclusive - is that what you mean? Or is this something new?

@SheilaFentiman yes - it can be described that way as well. School criteria could be changed to ensure that proximity to school does not matter, knocking huge amount of value from property prices nearby.

I could not care less about that, it does not affect me at all. As I said above, I focus on my own children. However, I would assume that it will impact some parents who simultaneously are virtue signalling about how they do not use state schools (by using their economic power to buy an excellent state provision).

It may be the right thing to do as it is a state paid provision. It has to be noticed though, that some parents (and possibly posters here) could be hard hit. For the virtue signallers of them, they do have it coming.

edited to add that there is a poll under AIBU where atm 72 % are unhappy about this…. It suck being on the wrong side where your children are disadvantaged, doesn’t it?

This is what the Mail said (only the Mail and the Telegraph came up in google)

A consultation document published by Equalities Minister Bridget Phillipson reveals that the Office for Equality and Opportunity is seeking evidence on how to ‘commence the socio-economic duty in the Equality Act 2010’.

So I’m not sure it’s gone beyond this as yet. But conscious this is rather off topic.

There is an entire AIBU thread which argues about what it means and which stage it is…

Thanks - I usually hide AIBU for my blood pressure 😀 but I will take a look.

Have read all 19 pages. It's all based on the Telegraph article, which cites Conservative research as the source for the speculation. So I rather agree with BlossomToes on the thread:

I haven't read the proposal.
Nobody has because there isn’t one. It’s Tory fantasy based on an amendment to the Equality Act.

<re-hides AIBU>

The same posters said welfare cuts were ‘media speculation’ with the same certainty. That was wrong.

“Number of private schools going bust doubles after VAT raid”. Not sure how the figure in here tallies with others that have been mentioned for closure numbers.

www.thetimes.com/article/04c01cc8-1229-4692-86bf-eccd467dc455?shareToken=dc87657ef9b837c116923539fcc59c93

55 have now closed. Since Sept 24.

Labour predicted 100 over the course of Parliament. We are over half way in the first year.

They also predicted 3K leaving independent schools for state in the first year with 50K over whole parliament. We are already at 16K since Sept 24.

Its laughable that they know 50K leaving = point at which the policy raises £0 and starts costing the state yet their figures built this in! They knew it was going to happen however in their arrogance underestimated the numbers leaving.
Maybe if they had engaged with us at any point they would have realised we aren't rhe wealthy people they assumed we were.

It’s evil that government would deliberately want to kill small business, especially schools.

Except they aren't a "business", over half are charities and majority are not for profit. So they can't make a profit.

Interestingly Labour are now concerned about the amount being bought out by Chinese companies and undue influence from there. Several high profile schools have been bought out ie some GDST schools

However they operate as a business would - suppliers, staff, clients that depend on them (pupils and families) and these 'business' stakeholders are having their lives derailed as well. All in the name of.... umm...anyone..??

Oh yes 100%

Each school contributes to the local economy by employing staff, offering facilities to state schools etc. It isn't just the school which impacted, it's the microcosm of people whose lives are impacted. For nothing other than Labour spite and ideology.

Yes there will be a private equity explosion yet. They won’t be interested in bursaries or supporting communities.