Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 7

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuation of previous threads discussing VAT on independent school fees. The thread title is a headline from a Times article last autumn.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5237575-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5242586-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-2
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5280646-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-3
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5301690-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-4
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5317397-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-5
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5337850-whitehall-braced-for-private-schools-collapse-6

He mentions how the state “badly needs money” yet fails to mention that £1bn is not going to make any difference to public services.
Even @PJTheEconomist of @TheIFS who penned the paper you are relying on said this.
So what he calls “messy” will end up not improving the state.

In addition here are Treasury figures for VAT income based on % of children leaving independent for state.
We are currently at 3% at end of the first year so nearer £0.5B than £1B. The higher the % goes, the less money comes in. Treasury figures also failed to account for the number who pre-paid therefore won't ever pay any VAT.

@SheilaFentiman you already know that fundamentally people with means get the best schools, either state via mortgage or independent via fees. The over simplification that one is unfair but not the other sticks in the craw.

I don’t think he says that? To quote:

. I certainly have no moral objection to people using the schools, anymore than I would object to hiring tutors or buying an expensive house in the catchment area of a good state school. Wanting to help our children succeed is human nature. I just think the state should prioritise those whose parents don’t have the resources to do so.

I am probably repeating myself from other threads, but I struggle with this as a criticism of politicians/policy wonks. The political class is disproportionately private school educated, university educated, middle class or higher, wealthier than average etc.

If the decisions/backgrounds of (probably) their parents on education disqualify them from making judgements in this area, then we are going to be short a lot of people in politics.

(and, as we all know on the thread, but for clarity: starmer went to a state grammar which converted to a private school whilst he was a pupil)

interesting that he doesn't ’t object to what creates serious inequality in the state sector ie buying houses in gilded catchments and hiring tutors. Most likely because he benefitted from it personally so he is happy for others to do as he does.
Independent schools, the parents & the children that attend are disliked by Labour & its supporters. Headway was never going to be made.

Even the most staunch supporters of VAT acknowledge a mid academic year start known to be most disruptive was particularly cruel.

Edcation needs real debate & not being led by people who are enacting policies based on personal biases.

VAT won’t help disadvantaged children in state schools and i suspect you already know this.

If you actually read the substack, it's not about whether the policy is good (he's written elsewhere about that), it's about whether the campaign against the policy is bad. Which it is, and never more so than on here.

Ah yes of course because we should just have shut up and taken all the misinformation and gaslighting shouldn't we?
Supporters of VAT have stated again and again how you want to sharp elbows of independent school parents to help to improve state schools. You thought we would just roll over when being directly targeted?

You know who has run a vile campaign? Bridget Phillipson! Constant lie upon lie. Ignores data etc. She could have chosen to exempt SEND kids, she decided not to. That's just vindictive.

That’s madness. It’s a poor policy from Labour.

So come on, what should we have done? In your opinion?

I am an annoyed/concerned parent.

I think that the creators of the policy and its supporters are economically illiterate.

The policy was always at risk of generating little cash best case scenario and costing the state money worst case scenario. This is coming to pass. No, it didn't happen in Feb, the policy was introduced on purpose to make the most money it could ever make spring and summer term 25 as parents hung on to finish the school year. That during that period more pupils left than the government predicted and schools closed at approx double the normal rate should be very alarming to any smuck hoping that this policy generates anywhere near the fictitious £1.8bln.

No teacher (or social housing, who knows which given the garbled shitfest of comms that comes out of our government on the daily) will ever be funded by this.

On top of that at a time when our economy is weak and over half of the UK population are net recipients from state benefits (on the rise) the policy attacks a British industry that is actually valued globally and attracts talent and money into the country. Now is not the utopian shiny happy economy time to be doing this shit.

Cute that they all want the state to pay for my kids education though!

For one thing, the key to any campaign is not to silo yourself among like minds. Another is not to overplay your hand and project the apocalypse (that's often a result of the first) when less interested spectators know it's not that. A third,, as Freedman goes into in more detail in that substack, is not to run an entirely external and aggressive campaign.demonising those whose minds you need to change in order to have any succcess.

Find yourself in our position and then feel free to pontificate. Until then I'm not taking notes.

We tried engaging with Labour, MPs etc they just ignored and refused. The anger is born out of pure frustration.

It is a shit policy, with no benefit to the state schools but demonstrable harm to independent ones.

Everything we said would happen has happened. I've posted the data numerous times. We weren't catastrophising at all and the data supports all of our initial predictions.

Tell me 1 thing we said which hasn't happened! I am betting you can't.

Find yourself in our position and then feel free to pontificate. Until then I'm not taking notes.

@twistyizzy you specifically asked that poster what she/he thinks should have been done differently, then you berated them for pontificating when they answered you. Huh?

https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3lvxxktidhk2v

It’s like Sam can hear us 😀

@twizzylizzy This was exactly what happened. I wouldn't have volunteered advice, as what would be the point when I know the recipient wouldn't listen. It was a surprise to be asked for advice, but of course that was just a trick to set up another screed, as usual. Carry on.

Does Freedman make any money out of his views? Selling a book per chance and expressing views online contributes to that. Just like the newspapers are cashing in on this.

Yeah, Freedman is a published author, has a paid substack and is a paid columnist. His book is pretty good - largely about the centralisation of power away from local government.

I am not sure what your point is. Professional writer makes money from writing?

Freedman makes plenty of money through subscriptions to his politics and foreign policy substack, writing several times a week, with private school content a fraction of a percent of that. Not sure what your point is?

The whole private school question is pretty goady right now.

However, there is the Sam Freedman you are mentioning and then there is the Sam Friedbman who coached-authored Born to Rule. Confusing much! Although they potentially both benefit in a click bait culture. Shame one cannot copyright one’s name. The names are incredibly similar.

Sorry about the typos, meant to say Sam Friedman who co-authored Born to Rule.

It is 1 person's opinion and he is hardly unbiased. His opinion is his own and he twists the data to support his narrative. I have posted the data and facts above which @SheilaFentiman you have completely ignored.

I'm now out. This is an extremely personal topic for me, impacting my child and 1000s of other children.

You can't argue with the facts and they show the impact this policy is having.

I just wish the supporters of this policy could have the balls to own that they support taxing the education of children, and SEND, children. But you won't, instead you just attack the people who are being impacted. Hope you feel good for doing that.

I'm out, the last 18 months have severely damaged my mental health and that of my family and other families who are being impacted. Gloat all you want but there are real people, and children, at the end of this policy.

Not realty confusing, no, Like Brian Cox and Brian Cox are both on telly, with the exact same name, but one’s a loud voiced actor and the other is a physicist.

I suppose there is a Sam Friedman who wrote a book about private schools and a Sam Freedman who has a background in education policy, so I can see the confusion. Cleared up now though. It was worse for Theresa May and glamour model Teresa May, for example.

@twistyizzy i have never attacked you nor gloated at you.

I shared Sam’s substack with the thread because I thought it was interesting. That doesn’t oblige me to engage with your subsequent posts.

But I agree that you should leave the thread if that’s best for your MH. I wish you well.