No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

But would they still want a place at a school that would accept them?

The point that they were making is that they would now be more likely to be offered a place at a school which is seen is as “better”. Previously, some children would not have been offered a place at some of the more selective schools. As competition reduces as some families can no longer afford fees, it becomes easier to get a place.

Surprisingly, my experience reflects exactly what @Labraradabrador laid out: child had to be removed from school they loved, parent had to close their practice to move with the child to support school transition, so no more money for the taxman from the closed business, state is now paying more to educate this child, a disabled person is receiving less care and family life and friendships are being torn apart.

But of course paupers like us shouldn't have prioritised education and god forbid sent their ragtag offspring to posh schools where everyone can afford pay 20% more just like that.

LOL

Anecdotally, as our cohort is at a natural transition point, I know quite a few families who are not joining private now. It's not the same as removing a child midway of course.

DC were all offered places at top selectives before VAT. Competition would not have been a concern.

It may not have been for you, but it certainly was for parents who commented on previous threads. They were pleased that some families were being forced out, because it opened spaces for their children which wouldn’t have previously been offered a place.

The point that they were making is that they would now be more likely to be offered a place at a school which is seen is as “better”. Previously, some children would not have been offered a place at some of the more selective schools. As competition reduces as some families can no longer afford fees, it becomes easier to get a place.

But presumably those better schools wouldn't remain better if they became less selective?

I agree, but I’m not sure the posters who expressed those views had thought that far ahead!

My point being they might not be so much ‘better’ if less competitive children gained entry. Their results are in no small part a function of selection.

X-post

I agree, but I’m not sure the posters who expressed those views had thought that far ahead!

😆

I suppose they could increase the bursary offer to attract the very bright dc who may traditionally go grammar.

Not just that - if the intake drops too much, how financially sustainable are those schools?

Unfortunately, a lot of bursary provision has had to be shifted away from new entrants, and towards existing pupils who can no longer afford the fees.

Well I meant for the specific schools who are lowering their selection criteria.

I think I already said it one this thread but I know 2 dc who received very generous bursaries for some of the London schools. Neither of them passed the grammars.

The really sought after schools won't need to lower selection criteria. If you look at the application to offer ratio, there are a number of very bright DC applying for each place. The place will just go to another equally bright DC whose parents can afford VAT.

I am not saying that is what will happen, my responses were in context to another post.

So you are saying they will be even more elitist as a result of Labour’s VAT policy?

It's a long time to the next election. I put 'the rich' in quotes as that is the perception, if not the reality.

If you can afford the pre VAT tag at these schools, you can most likely afford the 20% VAT. I was replying to the conjecture that schools will be dumbing down in their selection because of VAT. Maybe the case in some regions but not in the top London selectives or boarding schools.

How do you just magic extra money?

When we did the sums back in Y6 we could afford the fees for a top selective. I am thankful every day now that we decided we liked the state option better as we would have had to have pulled DD in the middle of GCSEs. No way could we afford that extra 20%.

If you can afford the pre VAT tag at these schools, you can most likely afford the 20% VAT.

I have said this before on these threads because of how fees have increased over the years but apparently on MNs that's incorrect. But I don't subscribe to the view that one can afford 26k plus per dc by camping and driving an old car.

As a parent who moved state to private for y9 during VAT gate - I don’t believe that their really is going to be an exodus to state - I’m not the only one that has gone state to private - that’s a commitment for the next 5 years - am I mad with labour no, labour believe rightly or wrongly that the VAT will help with the costs of state schooling which is available to everyone - unfortunately life isn’t fair and never has been thus whether you are at a private school / an outstanding, good or failing state school / or afford extra tutoring/ curricular activities etc. etc. it is based on money no matter what - that’s capitalism and stop with the comparison of other countries - every country is grappling with the same issue INEQUALITY .

When I was a child you went to the school in the catchment you lived - none of this absolute obsession with choosing X number of schools and putting your first choice of one that outstanding that is in the other side of the city in a very expensive area where your child never truly belongs - anyone that believes that ouststanding/good schools are any less interested in their GCSE/Alevel results than the Private School you are living on a different planet - unless you are in the top sets, sporty or a pushy parent they are not interested in your child other than making sure they get a 4 in maths / English so that their results look good but in any other subject for the lower sets it’s crowd control.

In terns of 6th form the reality is that the state schools at 6th form will offer to their existing students first, in the same way private schools choose their own students first at yr9 and L6.

When people talk about pressure on state places at yr 7 and 6th form what people really mean are the outstanding / good schools / sixth forms which everyone wants to go to etc. There are the lots of schools / 6th form colleges etc with places they just not the ones Mumsnet parents want to send their children - perhaps we should go back to the children attending schools that are in their catchment only and let’s face it schools in the state sector are funded per bum on a seat do there will always 6th form college places that need the students so I can’t see there being an issue with no spaces in state - just not spaces where the the privately educated want to go.

Yes 100% that is what is happening and is what was forecast as a direct consequence 12 months ago!

When I was a child you went to the school in the catchment you lived

perhaps we should go back to the children attending schools that are in their catchment only

I am in my 40s, live in England, and did not go to my 'catchment' school or any of the three schools in my town - it has been possible to put down schools in order of preference for decades.

@twistyizzy but does the fact you were debating whether you could afford the increase but then your dc got a discount mean increased elitism?