No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

“In terns of 6th form the reality is that the state schools at 6th form will offer to their existing students first, in the same way private schools choose their own students first at yr9 and L6.“

Not correct where I live. There are entry requirements for Sixth Form, if you miss it you do not get a place. And the entry requirements can change to become more and more competitive. Most of these academy schools want the brightest kids as it often makes recruitment of teachers and future pupils easier. If you become an outstanding school with excellent results into a falling birth rate, it pretty much guarantees your survival long term. And one thing people always look at is A level results and university destinations.

Of course you don't just magic extra money. It depends on how much of a financial cushion you have and that varies by individual of course. I'm not saying everyone has that but anecdotally most people I know do. That is in top selective schools in London.

It will be easier for those with 1 DC but those with 2,3 and 4 the story is different. Everyone I know with multiple DC is adjusting their behaviour and making sure they somehow compensate for the VAT, even if they could somehow theoretically afford it.

Which is fine, but is a very small proportion of the sector. In my region enrolment is down significantly, other local indie schools have closed, and teacher / staff redundancies are being openly discussed at our school.

please don’t be so dismissive of other people’s experiences.

If you have several DC, it is easy to change course as someone is bound to be in transition and you can use sibling priority as well.

In London, the top brands will just be filled more and more with internationals. There are a lot of US and Hong Kong arriving right now to take the places anyway. The Brits priced out of Eton and WinColl who live in London will just go for St Paul’s/Westminster instead and the top boarding schools can always tap into the world anyway. However, the demographic changes and with that, the culture of the school.

It is really sad for the people losing their jobs, especially in rural communities where all schools can act as community hubs, especially private schools with facilities shared out and employing locals. Such a shortsighted policy @Labraradabrador

Only sharing my own experience. Just because it doesn't match yours doesn't make it any less valid.

Valid? Yes. Representative? No.

Representative? No.

That poster said anecdotally though?

My experience was different and I’m only in my 40s too. I went to my catchment primary and secondary, as have my dc - catchment primary and yr7/8 catchment.

Perhaps more schools would improve and all children would benefit if they went to their local school etc. but again just a view, I’m not an expert.

I can’t follow the logic of “if you can afford a £250k house then you can afford a £300k one”. Lots of people can only afford a £250k house.

Exactly. I don't think my experience counts as it inconveniently doesn't fit the narrative.

It’s almost like the rich have enough money.

Yes but that’s still a pretty small area. It’s rare they offer much over 4 miles away.

So why don’t Labour actually tax the rich, instead of using “private school attendance by children” as a proxy for wealth?

The richest people I know send their kids to the local high achieving state school and aren’t being asked to contribute a penny extra to improve state education.

The experience of top London private schools is very different from those in the rest of the country. Just like the option to choose from between a dozen different state schools is not the reality of many people. In most areas you realistically get to choose two, maybe three state schools. Top private incomes are nothing like those in London and the potential private school population much smaller. So while wealthy London posters can be confident of both their private school’s longevity and their income, that cannot be said for parents across the country with schools already operating on a financial knife edge. This is why there is often resentment with politicians who seem to only look within the M25 or its hinterland.

@AshKeys Exactly! Not just maths, but basic statistics should be compulsory till 18. It's astonishing how many well-educated and affluent people still fail to appreciate that they live in a bubble and that their experiences are not representative.

Well some do have enough money. Some on the margins won't.

The latter will use state, Labour won't get much more to spend on anything.

And then cut welfare etc to make up for it.

Would also like to add that many of the top private schools are now opening schools in other countries such as Japan and Dubai. I would love to see figures of how many of these new schools are from families moving from UK - taking promotions overseas rather than paying the 20% here. Potentially a further source of brain drain.

I assume this is directed at me although perhaps a bit more subtle than your previous frothing and now deleted post. Where have I said that my experience was anything but anecdotal?. Why is there so much bitterness around affluence and affordability? It actually seems quite hypocritical considering all the accusations of politics of envy etc. thrown at any dissenters by a group who are simply furious that they can no longer afford what they thought they could.

Lazy journalism at its finest. School places don't have to be accepted until next week!

Many Heads of really good state + indy schools are being lured abroad to run these schools. Anecdotal examples from both sectors in last 6 months

A lot of people are furious about the disruption being caused to their children's lives.

Especially those whose children have already been failed by the state and where they have scrapped together the cash through earnings and family to find a way to educate their child. These are the people who didn't have the privilege of stress-testing their finances for an additional 20% on top of annual increases - and are also concerned what NI and rates increases mean for September.

I'm fortunately not one of those parents but I have a lot of empathy for those who are in that position.

We all know there are those who are rich enough to barely notice the school fees going out of the account and for whom the VAT is but a mere irritation.

If you're in that boat then well done you, but perhaps have a little bit of thought and kindness for those who are not, and especially those who are facing the prospect of sending their children back into a system that has already failed them once.

I don’t think everyone in London who relies on actual income to pay schools fees, rather them millions stashed in savings, is that comfortable either. Many people are very worried about a looming recession and their jobs here too. That includes what others may consider top earners. It’s far from a pretty picture here either. On the plus side, for those priced out of private education, there aren’t that many families left after the Covid exodus so competition for state places has somewhat decreased, especially in the lower years.

In people’s friendship groups, you just need everyone to shift state, even amongst the top demographics, and there is a general change of behaviour amongst all. Because it’s also about value for money and opportunity cost. If middle class successful professionals all stop sending their DCs to private schools, there is an impact. People then look at the top private schools and consider them to be for the international rich only and not for the likes of “us”. So I wouldn’t be getting too comfortable @thonbanane. A private education all the way through at top London selective private schools sets you back up to 300k at secondary and 150k at prep and rising. That is 500k per child and it makes even the richest consider whether it’s worth it, if there are reasonable state options available, which there are in London.