No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

How successful? Is it a top ten school?

On elections and manifestos: the last election was NOT a referendum on VAT on private school fees!!! How many of you can say that they have always agreed with 100% of the policies and manifestos of the parties they voted for?

I believed, and still do, that VAT on private school fees is a flawed, idiotic policy, which risks backfiring. I voted Labour anyway not because I agree with this policy, but, because, on balance, I thought, and still do, that Labour was the least worst option, and that the Tories had done enough damage in 14 years in power.

Also, even if it had been a referendum, we are still allowed to criticise it. Or should we be forced to criticise Brexit just because there was a referendum???

In other words the majority of people voted against this manifesto. Labour said they would do it so their credibility (what is left of it) depends on doing at least some of their manifesto and VAT on school fees must seem an easy thing to tick off. But they do need to consider that they didn’t get their large majority due to voters voting for them or their manifesto.

I voted LibDem but support this policy. No point in voting Labour where I am.

Can you explain why you support it? Other than using soundbites?
Are you happy for the taxpayer to be footing the bill for the 4 x KCs which is going to run into the £100s of £1000s?

Yes, regularly appears in top 10 nationally.

Probably also worth saying that these newly-recruited students for A-level do achieve at least as highly, and on average slightly better (as is the aim) than those who have been in the selective school since 11.

I would like to know the stats on private to home ed before and after this policy.

2 of the 3 Private schools in my city are ones that cater for spld/trauma/burnout/neurodiversity.

Fees are low, focus is on breadth of curriculum, and encouraging a mindset of enquiry.
Of the families who have left, they certainly don't go back to state. They home ed.

That's not a high bar to clear. I'd have a lot of questions about a "highly selective school" that didn't select more accurately 2 years before the exams than 7 years before the exams. And I think you stated that they give preferences, i.e., have lower requirements, to the students who were there from 11 years old?

As the admissions law requires, the ‘formal’ bar to clear on results day is the same for new and existing students.

However, again as the law allows, those already in the school get their 6th form offer automatically (some fail to meet it). Those applying from elsewhere are ranked (using predicted grades, current school and other relevant factors such as PP etc) and only some are given offers.

I agree that it is not surprising that new candidates somewhat outperform those already in the school. The point I was making that a ‘highest grades at GCSE on results day’ selection procedure (which another poster has described) is not necessary to achieve this, and the selection procedure can be managed in a more nuanced way to recognise candidates’ prior experience while maintaining an exceptionally high academic standard.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/private-schools-government-vat-conservative-england-b2717590.html

Does anyone know when the VAT money pipeline starts coming into state schools please? How will it work - I read that it’s an extra teacher per school?

Well the latest figures showed 11k fewer students in private schools by Jan 2025 (government estimate was 3k fewer). I'm going to guess that figure is going to be drastically up by Jan 2026.

I forget the exact figures that mean net zero for the policy, but suspect this may actually end up costing more than it makes.

PS. They didn't ring fence the money so there's no extra dosh for state schools... just more pupils, especially expensive SEN kids.

The fantasy prediction was an extra 1/3 of teacher per school and free rice crispies.

I think we all know that the promise of the VAT money going to improve state schools was always pie in the sky.

The government have already reduced their teacher recruitment targets because they’ve decided we no longer need as many teachers, and it appears that they’ve now removed primary school teachers from their 6500 target (because including them would show that the 6500 target will be missed).

State schools are having to cut staff numbers because of unfunded pay rise promises. “The government have admitted that most schools will not be able to cover the cost of staff pay rises next year but expect schools to make efficiencies” (NEU).

The current government have already cut funding for STEM subjects, Latin, music, computing and modern languages.

The current government are destroying all areas of education, but at least wealthy families are getting a “free” bowl of cornflakes and half a breakfast muffin. It would be funny if wasn’t so serious. All of our children are being failed.

www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/dfe-cuts-teacher-training-itt-recruitment-target

https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/primary-schools-not-included-dfes-6500-new-teacher-target

https://neu.org.uk/latest/press-releases/vast-majority-schools-face-funding-cuts-next-year

schoolsweek.co.uk/labour-scraps-computing-hubs-with-languages-scheme-scaled-back/

I reckon they have decided that “real” teachers is too expensive so it will be more EdTech, especially in planning tasks.
I reckon we should get. AI to replace Government and Ofsted! It might do a better job. Certainly more rationale.

According to the article posted, the government hasn't even selected a baseline year to compare their achievement against! It's like saying we've improved literacy - if we compare 2025 with the year of our choice, maybe 1066?

Is the 6500 new teacher target EXTRA teachers though, or just replacing the ones who burn out?
I don't understand how you can say 'we're getting a massive education tax windfall' and then not use it for the state education sector.

My local schools have started paving the floor with gold and serving caviar for lunch, such will be the windfall /s

@SaturdayGiraffe - there is no VAT money coming in. Just some kids who will be on the school council and ask for Sushi to be added to the dinner menu.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/labour-ideological-attack-private-schools-backfiring/

As long as it's organic, locally sourced fish. We all know we must fight climate change by not bringing in food from too far away

@RantingAnonymously - cucumber will have to do, maybe we can stretch to pepper or the pumpkin in the school garden! Such are the trials and tribulations of the state primary.

Reminds me of the facebook page "overheard in Waitrose" https://www.facebook.com/overheardinwaitrose/?locale=en_GB

"Mummy, does Lego have a silent T like Merlot"?

or catherine Tate's posh mummy

The episode with the northern nanny, or where they tale a wrong turn and end up in Tottenham, are also hilarious. "Mummy, why would someone buy frozen food?"

Exactly. “Instead of extracting £1.5bn from private schools, Treasury analysis has suggested that the new tax policy could cost the Government an extra £650m per year.”

I suspect that there’ll be some (including the likes of Reeves and Rayner) who’ll still be happy with this. The policy was never about raising money. It was based on spite and the desire to harm the private sector and the children that use it.

Bloody hell. So bad.