No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

That's a very fair summary.

Yet the goalposts do keep shifting. Initially it was wall to wall outrage at purely the principle of VAT on privates school fees. Then the idea that it might not make any money if enough people shift to state/there are significant exemptions etc.came up. Then that grew centipede legs with no bounds on speculation. The quantification is clearly very complex which is hardly surprising not least because it hinges on parents' actually acting out their feelings rather than having a good moan and paying up. It is very likely that September 2025 will only bring a small part of the complex picture and if that limited evidence doesn't back up the objections, the day of reckoning will just be booted out into the long grass and the goalposts will shift once more.

It was Labour who set the goalpost by claiming VAT on fees is justified due to the money it earns. Private school parents simply do not think that education should be liable to VAT.

Oh, I think it is morally reprehensible to tax education and I will never support the policy on principles alone BUT I can also put that to the side and look very objectively at whether the policy achieved it’s stated goal, which was to raise £1.8bn per year by 2030.

Looking at the question of revenue raised there is the simple ‘back of the envelope’ analysis of student numbers, and there is the broader economic impact analysis that considers the policy’s impact on other behaviours. Those two ways of looking at the problem are not in conflict with each other - to get a full economic impact analysis will take years, but in the meantime we can look at the data we do have and query how that aligns with different forecasts. That isn’t moving the goalposts, it’s just trying to understand the impact real time rather than waiting for the dust to settle, at which point it is too late to change course.

To be fair, I know some private school parents who think it's perfectly reasonable for private school fees to be liable for VAT.

I am one such parent.

And I know a number of state school parents who are opposed to VAT on school fees 🤷‍♀️

Indeed - but myself and the PP were responding to another PP.

Of course they have to claim it will make money, otherwise it fails on proportionality. Nobody is ever going to be able to prove how many additional rate taxpayers left the country because of VAT on private school fees. What you need to look at is overall tax take, but there will be other arguments raised.
The only sure thing is that the next Party coming in will likely reverse it.

I agree completely with @Labraradabrador.

A major issue we have with trying to understand and quantify the impact is that the Labour government apparently has no plans to gather or analyse any of the necessary data. Some of this data is already being collected for other purposes (as above, the number of secondary school applicants who turn down a state school place in favour of private).

Labour has claimed this is primarily a fundraising policy to pay for improvements to state schools (and cornflakes for rich kids 🙄).

Isn’t it therefore a tad suspicious that they have no intention of even attempting to establish just how much money it has raised….?

Can anyone think of a reason or two why that might be…?

Stretford Grammar admissions says ‘candidates who lived within immediate area of the school being M32, M33, M41, M15 and M16 (both within Trafford and Manchester m) and including M21, this being the next closest postcode to the school’.

Because making poor pensioners and vulnerable disabled people pay for an age old ideology is not a good look?

"The only sure thing is that the next Party coming in will likely reverse it."

I really wouldn't bet on that. Giving tax cuts to the 'rich' is generally not a vote winner at general election time. Income tax reductions are generally seen as more palatable.

Me too. If our margins had been so tight not to be able to pay VAT, we wouldn't have sent our DC that route. A few of my friends have had a little moan about it but I don't know a single person who has taken their DC out of school and that's across three different private schools.

Tories + Reform have already committed to reversing it. And it isn't "taxing the rich" hence the challenges to it

What age old ideology are poor pensioners paying for?

On the margin point, I disagree - , it's a meaningful increase (esp after interest rate rises etc), and we wouldn't now start the kids at school.

We can afford it for the limited years remaining, especially with the initial tapering school is offering, though.

Tories + Reform have already committed to reversing it.

Have the tories? Didn't see that.

In any event, it's early in the electoral cycle - I will believe it when it's in a manifesto in a few years' time.

@ICouldBeVioletSky A major issue we have with trying to understand and quantify the impact is that the Labour government apparently has no plans to gather or analyse any of the necessary data.

Exactly! I am a Labour voter who has never gone private, but the policy is bonkers.

AFAIK almost no other country has it.
Greece tried it, but it backfired massively, with many private schools closing.
New Zealand has something similar to VAT on private education BUT it also subsidises the families who choose to go private.

I mean, why do you think no other country does it, if it is such a good idea?

With "only" 7% of children going private, I wouldn't expect massive disruptions nationwide, but national averages are very misleading and I would expect disruptions in certain areas where there are (used to be?) more private schools.

Do you understand how you sound? 😁

“What age old ideology are poor pensioners paying for?”

Curtail/harm private education as much as possible. It was always part of the ideology. The original plan was to abolish all grammars and all private schools. What actually happened was abolished most grammars which directly led to a boom
in private education. And some are still bitter about that.

Just sharing my own experience as many others like you do on here. Guessing my experience doesn't match yours🙃

There have been posters on previous threads openly admitting that, as private school parents, they agree with the VAT purely because it means it is more likely that their children will be offered a place at selective privates, as applications will be reduced as fewer families can afford it. Previously, some families, who may have no problems with huge fee increases, would not have been offered places as competition for places was high.

It must depend on the area. We are in Hampshire and we have a huge drop in birth rate. Local primary school closing. The Year 7 bulge year has pass. DC goes to a very popular state school. The kind that are named in house adverts. Year 7 for 2025 now have a full class of kids from out of catchment. This was not the case in previous years. It has consistently been admitting over PAN to take everyone in catchment in.

This is the Hampshire statistics https://documents.hants.gov.uk/education/Year-7-Offer-Day-Data-2025.pdf