No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils.

[FruitPolos]

Article in today's Guardian. Interesting to note the comments from Surrey in particular given the discussion on Mumsnet about this particular area.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

"Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”

The litmus test has always been Sixth Form.
Due to population decreases in London and the SE Year 7 was never the issue.
The real problem is that next August, there is no time if Sixth Forms are overrun due to how allocations are made based on GCSE results. They need to be looking at Sixth Form applications.

And the reason Sixth Form is so important is because the university sector is already in crisis. So if that messes up, there really are a lot of implications for the economy as a whole and long term at that.

Surely the test will be the numbers of year 7 places released for second round allocations? In our area pretty much every family applies for a state place - but then will decline that if going to accept an offer at an independent school. So it's the numbers of places released in the second round that will be different.

For our preferred school, while we are in catchment for it we are outside the furthest distance offered at first round in the last few years. In previous years we would have got a place in the second round of allocations. If those places are now squeezed due to families not taking up places at the independents, we are going to be really stuck.

Do you have any sources where I can read about this issue please. I'd be interested to learn more and understand the concerns.

I would have thought it too early to know - private school parents have always applied to state, the real question is how many will be taking up places that they otherwise would have turned down prior to starting.

So are you saying that the issue is not that children will be left without a placement. It's that children will not get their first choice? Surely that's always been the case?

Exactly, you have just said much more succinctly what I was trying to articulate! This is the issue that is really worrying us. We will be applying next year so at least we will have this year's numbers to understand the impact to our local area.

I don't think there was ever going to be a rise and definitely not a rise that couldn't be easily dealt with. That was hysteria whipped up by the independent schools sector and some fee paying parents.

Depends what you call significant
664 compared to 606 last year is a 9% increase in applications

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-wont-fully-fund-unexpected-post-16-pupils/

As @Labraradabrador says, the test will be how many parents take up their place in independent schools/stick to allocated state place. Parents choosing independent schools have always applied for state place as insurance. To that extent this is a non-story.
The other concern is the speed at which independent schools are announcing closures since 1st Jan, the ones currently open may not still be here in Sept 25!

It also doesn’t capture how many students would have moved to private from secondary but now are staying in state. There is usually a significant increase in private school enrolment in y7 and then more so y12 - if a significant portion no longer make that move it will have a negative impact on the finances of individual private schools as well as the broader financial implications (more kids for the state to educate, less revenue from vat)

Maybe it depends which paper you read, this article says that The Telegraph Private schools struggle as vat policy triggers closures

I read that the average number of private schools that close each year is 50 but since this has been introduced it is 77 so far, 8 more planning to close, and so there is some impact.
Whether the cost of educating those pupils returning to state education is offset by the tax collected I don't know.

I don't agree at all. The policy was very badly executed mid academic year. But I would like to know what % of that Eg Surrey increase of 56 pupils includes students with SEN now requiring support from the state sector. That will have a disproportionate effect on schools.

This is so area dependent though isn’t it - I live in a rural region that has 3 private schools within an hour drive of my house. There is definitely the space within the state schools to absorb if these schools close down - we have falling numbers at all state schools & would benefit from increased pupil numbers.

I live in Kent where there’s the state 11+.

This year same as always, you got your 11+ result and then had 2 weeks to apply for state school places. However as always, the main entrance exam the local private schools use, send out their results the week after the date you have to apply for a state school. So parents who’s DCs have passed the state 11+, always apply for a state grammar place while they are waiting to find out if they’ve also passed the exam with a good enough mark for their preferred private schools.

This usually means there’s lots of people who this week are turning down their state place because they’ve since found out their dcs have passed the private 11+ and have got a private place. (Then there’s lot of movement).

it will be interesting to see if there’s the usual movement over the next few weeks or if people aren’t giving up state grammar places for private school this year.

At our London prep everyone makes a state secondary application every year, regardless of their plans for private. It's just a prudent thing to do in case of a very unforeseen issue preventing them from taking up the private place (eg family death), and some parents are also just curious to see which state school they might get allocated. So applications would be static from one year to the next ( or a slight fall perhaps due to pupil numbers, as we are quite central). It won't necessarily reflect in actual attendance figures in the autumn. Anecdotally I hear that more parents are waiting to decline state places due to anxiety over redundancies, although they have had to pay a deposit to keep an independent place, but there's no financial penalty to hold on to the state place as well, and you never know what will happen politically between now and the autumn.

Not in secondary schools, bulge years until 2028. Primary are the years seeing falling rolls

the number of applications is irrelevant, the question is if the uptake is higher than before. The fact that first choice allocations went from 83% to 80% shows that uptake of state offers was higher than before. anecdotally, i know many private school parents who are aiming for state sixth form. perhaps not many will pull their year 9-11 child out of private school if they can at all avoid it, but many have decided to go state for sixth form, or to go state from year 7 if they are currently in private primary.

I think of you’ve had declining numbers for years and an 800k+ deficit describing the VAT as the straw that broke the camel’s back is a bit of a stretch.

Honest to God I swear the arguments on here are getting more desperate with each thread. I’m not sure which key indicator we are on now but every time something turns out not to have been an issue after all that isn’t the important factor it’s something else.

All conveniently ignoring the fact that according to some data on another thread the big spike in school closures seems to have occured in the 12 months after Truss crashed the economy. As expected.

You don’t know where I live though, do you? only 1 out of the 9 secondary schools in the same rough locality as the 3 private schools was oversubscribed in the last two years.

We've always had a very large number of private school students joining state sixth form here in Surrey - our college has 2,500 students of which around 25% come from private schools and the remainder from feeder secondary schools. The college can easily absorb any increase in number of private school students enrolling.

This. I wonder what they'd call significant, 100%? 🤔

Due to population decreases in London and the SE Year 7 was never the issue.

I thought yr 7 was still a bulge year?

I never believed there would be a mass exodus as lots of parents were already priced out due to fee increases over the years. The majority who chose PE can afford it &/or have help from wider family.