How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

The City of London is full of people paying huge amounts of taxes who would never come to the U.K. or stay in the U.K., if education isn’t excellent. The whole point is that the top private schools and top unis are what makes us a desirable country. Remove that we are screwed, literally, because successive governments have created a massive service industry and over reliance on those tax receipts.
This VAT business on education is absolutely bonkers!

A 20% tax penalty on people will usually lead to at least a 20% fall in demand. It is basic common sense.
However, I am more worried about the change in behaviour in the 800k taxpayers we rely on. That is where we all lose out. And paving the way for Reform. I can just see that one of their next commitments at the next election will be to remove the VAT and open tons of grammar schools. This is such a huge own goal for us as a country.

A 20% tax penalty on people will usually lead to at least a 20% fall in demand. It is basic common sense.

But not true. It depends on how much people want the product and whether they will prioritise that product over other things.

Private education uptake has been resilient to price rises over the last few years showing that parents are willing to prioritise it over other spending.

We have been through this @noblegiraffe - it’s very different if a school says energy and building costs have gone up and we need to retain the best staff so we have to pass on 8 per cent extra this year so your DCs get the best possible education
vs a government penalty where they get nothing extra when they already pay into the system and some have kids with SEND. People are incredibly angry over this, in case you hadn’t noticed on MN alone. They get nothing from this so are literally incentivised to move state if they can. It will be a fascinating case study internationally speaking, that is clear.
Also remember that the private schools themselves won’t want to stoke panic either so some will also pretend all is fine and dandy so more parents sign up!

So many people come on here claiming that people who support the policy can't grasp basic economics.

But a 20% rise in price will NOT produce a 20% reduction in demand. It all depends on the elasticity of the demand curve.

It's that elasticity that we are debating.

Until this year, my DC’s fees had never increased by more than 2 or 3 per cent. 20 percent is a completely different ball game.

@pintofsnakebite - the elasticity is completely different if created by the school and invested in the school itself VS an externally created 20% anomalous tax, that no other country does.
And that is the crux of the matter. It is called a tipping point.

If fees had never increased by more than 2 or 3 per cent, then realistically the school has been delivering less and less as the years have gone by (unless they were massively overcharging to start with). Costs (and most private school fees) have gone up by more than that in recent years.

“Gonna keep saying it, but the fact that so many of the private school parents, after claiming that they are only going private due to "smaller, nurturing class sizes and marvellous music and sport opportunities" are now getting ready to pack their kids into grammar schools (which have neither of these advantages!) as a substitute, suggests strongly that there are plenty of people who would pay for an affordable no-frills school with normal sized classes and normal facilities. I'd like to see some conversation in the sector about costs and "what are our parents prepared to pay for and what are they not prepared to pay for" before I get too sympathetic.”

@GreenTeaLikesMe - and why exactly should anyone have to pay for a grammar school type set up in a highly developed nation, why not just move to one of the many European countries that actually offers that for free? As a basic, together with a functioning healthcare system?

A no frills grammar type school (which includes, by the way, a successful comprehensive that sets well) - every child should be entitled to that across the board. The whole point is that many children do not get that in the first place, especially where they have a spiky profile due to SEND.

You are wrong on both counts (except for the onsite school uniform shop being closed but the educational offering hasn’t deteriorated and new facilities have been built). And I also said “until this year”. We had a bigger increase this year due to the increased contributions to the TPS. However, it will be 21.5% over the course of the 24-25 school year (including after VAT is introduced).

The other thing I was wondering about is that debt was historically cheap for a number of years and if a ton of private schools built extra facilities and took out substantial debt, then they will be feeling the pinch now, big time and will have no choice but to pass on 20 per cent VAT, sack staff etc, get out of TPS. Start charging those in the community to use the pool.

Clearly a full impact assessment would have looked in detail at levels of debt and financing. Not a peep on the matter from the IFS. So clearly not fit for purpose whatever analysis they did.

Self-interest as a balance to the excess of blind ideology is a good thing: because it results in better outcomes.

Labour don't want to appear negatively in newspapers. They want to be re-elected and still have jobs in 5 years. If that encourages them to do proper analysis before introducing a policy which risks harming the economy, that would be self-interest which results in a better outcome. That's a good thing.

But using ideology and populism to shore up political support rarely results in better outcomes for the population. I guess it's possible, but I've never seen it. I'm suspicious of politicians (or anyone) who lie 'for your own good'.

I'd bloody love it if they opened up their facilities to paying members of the community.

@Boohoo76 "Many state schools don’t have a wide range of socio economic groups because they are representative of their local area"

I thought we were talking about grammar schools not state schools in general?

@pintofsnakebite - our local private schools in London are open and helpful to the local state schools and in regular contact. Some of the state schools are in trusts with private schools and play each other at sport. The private schools are open evenings and weekends to the community and local clubs across the board.
Have you bothered to enquire with the local private schools? What are the state heads doing to work together? Has anyone actually bothered trying?

So you’re saying that grammar schools have a wider range of socio economic groups than your average comp?! That’s a new one on me as apparently they are full of middle class kids! To be fair none of my grammar school DC’s friends have parents who are tradespeople but there are loads of them at my DC’s private. In fact, they are the ones who have the biggest houses, the flashiest cars and the most holidays!!!

@Boohoo76 - how much people spend does not always correlate with their underlying wealth. Plenty of stingy upper middle class people sitting on tons of cash and not splashing and staying with friends on holidays. Some families have it drilled into them that you must conserve for the next generation, it is literally the definition of the little “c”.
Whereas it is perfectly plausible that someone who has made it big in one generation but has an impostor complex due to underlying class issues in this country would spend or even overspend. Especially if you do not have full trust in the establishment. If you have had generations of working class values where you spend when it comes in as the system is not on your side, then that will lead to certain behaviours. Just as the upper class will conserve.

I also think how people will react to this policy will be class dependent. Upper class/upper middle will sigh and pay up, because it is just a reminder of the 1970s type of inheritance tax raids and they know it will pass and be forgotten by the time a next Government come in. Middle class will panic and move grammar/top state comp, working class that has made it into the private sector will be very angry as it is a symptom of the left middle class trying to keep them down.
That is my prediction.

So they would happily pay the extra for e.g. heating costs.

But because it is tax they will all turn their back on a school they would otherwise think best for their child, and that they could afford if they chose.

Seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

I don't know any parents that would do that but then I don't know any private school parents. Thank goodness, if that is typical of the mind set!

@Baital - if you are middle class then you are not curing your nose off to spite your face, because you know that you can access the best of state education and top it up with tutors. And if that is what the system now requires you to do, you do it.

@Boohoo76 "So you’re saying that grammar schools have a wider range of socio economic groups than your average comp?"

I think we are misunderstanding each other. I thought you were saying that grammar schools have a broader socio-economic cohort than private schools.

Well I was originally talking about class size and there being very little difference between my DC’s state grammar and my other DC’s independent school. But you brought up socio economic differences. As it happens I believe that there is a wider socio economic range at my DC’s private school.

Have you considered that your view of acting to make as much money for yourself and keep as much of it for yourself as possible while reckoning that this is a good thing for society is also an ideology? Starts with a C….

We will know in a couple of years' time. I predict that there will be pretty much the same number of private school places (taking into account demographics) and that it will raise money. I'm glad this tax break has been closed.