@fivecandles:
'expat, I really think you're wilfully misinterpreting my points.'
I confess I was having a bit of fun there. After five days and God knows how many words, I felt I deserved some. And it was a short point.
''And I think that 10:1 is a very, very low estimate of the payoff of an Oxbridge place compared to the effort of an application.'
YOU may think that and that's fine and that's great if students feel the same way. But many don't.'
I think you misunderstood my point. I was not talking about 10:1 odds of getting a place. I was talking about a 10:1 payoff, i.e., the rewards of winning an Oxbridge place are greater than the costs/effort of an application by a factor of 10. And I think the true ratio is much, much, higher than that.
'I see students go through this process every year and some are absolutely devastated by rejection (often their first rejection). I know people who are bitter about it years later.'
In the business sector it is an axiom that in order to make a return, you have to take some risk. If these students are not willing to take the risk.... It appears that a lot of private school students are willing to take the risk. Whilst, overall, their chances are higher than state school applicants, 70% of private school applicants were still rejected.
''But my point is that, if the 20 extra applications were from state school students, another 4-5 places might have gone to state school students'
Well, they MIGHT have (depending on the candidates and the interviewers) but actually as state school applications rose this year but fewer actually got in (a point I've made several times but has been completely ignored) this year this really does seem unlikely wouldn't you agree?'
No. See the next comment.
'''I have seen time and again one student chosen over another who in my professional opinion (and the opinion of colleagues who have taught them) is a better candidate.'
Which I take as support that my probabilistic model is a more realistic description of the process than your deterministic model.'
I don't understand your point. What are you trying to say here?'
I'm trying to say that, while you can clearly rate some students higher than others, there is a lot of noise in the application process. Even those you rate very highly have some non-zero chance of rejection. Conversely, even those you rate poorly have some non-zero chance of acceptance.
''Substitute 'if only students were given the right advice' for 'if only teachers were giving the right advice' and you're most of the way to my argument'
And there again. You're assuming that teachers are not giving the right advice. I really dispute that. You have no evidence that that is the case except for a few anecdotes.'
You have misread what I wrote. Read it again. You originally wrote:
'Your arguments are based on hypothetical scenarios and an assumption that if only teachers were giving the right advice and students were a bit more clued up more kids from state schools would get into Oxbridge.'
Do the substitution I requested and the sentence now reads: "Your arguments are based on hypothetical scenarios and an assumption that if only students were given the right advice and students were a bit more clued up more kids from state schools would get into Oxbridge." That is a more accurate representation of my position. I repeat, I make no claims that it is primarily the teachers' responsibility.
'I agree that the work the Sutton Trust does is interesting and certainly our students have attended summer schools and the like provided by them. But again this is a group which has been self-selected and/or encouraged to aim high by teachers and is already showing enormous determination.'
Can we agree that it would be worthwhile to explore expanding these programs? Both to more schools and deeper into the student base? Particularly if Oxford and Cambridge could be persuaded to participate?
'''It is very hard to persuade a Muslim girl from a traditional and poor family that it is worth getting into debt which is against their fundamental ideology to go and live hundreds of miles away from her family and study at Oxbridge.'
You don't need to convince me of this. Did you not read my discourse on Henrietta Barnett School a few days ago?'
No, I didn't read that. But there you go again. On the one hand acknowledging that there may be cultural and financial reasons why students may choose not to apply to Oxbridge and on the other hand suggesting that if only they'd been given the right advice they might have!'
First, I find it quite impolite that you did not bother to read my entire post before responding four days ago. And you most certainly did respond. Second, I see no contradiction in suggesting that additional information and education might overcome some of these cultural and/or financial barriers. It may be very hard, but that does not mean it is either impossible or not worth trying.
Perhaps more schools could try to bring back those few female Muslims who did go to Oxbridge for evening presentations to the students and parents where these girls describe their experience with bursaries and attest that it's not all sex, drugs and rock-and-roll. Unless, of course, it is, upon which I concede the point, as far as poor Muslim girls go.
''And you have ignored that the success rate of independent school candidates also went down this year. The number of applicants from both sectors went up. The number of places available did not.'
I don't think that's actually true.'
It is true.
www.ox.ac.uk/about_the_university/facts_and_figures/undergraduate_admissions_statistics/school_type.html
''When did this discussion move from being about state school students to being just about their teachers?'
It moved that way when it was suggested by various posters that state school teachers were not advising students or misadvising them or dissuading them from applying to Oxbridge. ... This is why I'm defensive because this is insulting nonsense.'
This thread had, for practical purposes, been a two-person dialogue for three days. I have not stated, implied nor insinuated any of the things you find insulting. Throughout this discussion I have made the effort to engage you as an individual, not as a stereotype. I will thank you to reciprocate.