"I'm not sure that you've read my post very carefully or thought very carefully about your response.
Let's be absolutely clear about this: not applying to Oxford or Cambridge is not on its own evidence that you are 'insufficiently ambitious'.
And quite frankly that's a hugely insulting assumption to make."
@fivecandles: I did indeed read your post very carefully and think very carefully about my response. I absolutely agree that Oxbridge is no more the be-all and end-all of higher education here than Harvard is in the States, and there are many reasons why students might prefer not to go to Oxbridge. But...
Quoting myself:
"10 out of 11 successful applicants to Oxbridge can be viewed either as very good indeed if only 11 students had Oxbridge aspirations, or else as someone (either students or teachers) being insufficiently ambitious"
Please tell me how this statement was insulting and to whom? I repeat, if only 11 students wanted to go to Oxbridge then this is an excellent result. The remainder of my statement was to question whether some of the students with Oxbridge potential and desire were being dissuaded from applying because either they, their parents or their teachers were mistaken about their chances of getting in. I believe this issue has been raised by several education ministers from all major parties so it's hardly a radical question or obscure issue.
If you can tell me, hand-on-heart, that, outside of the 11 who applied, no other students at your school wanted to go to Oxbridge, then the first half of my statement holds; your school did an excellent job with the 11. If, on the other hand, more marginal students, students with a 75% or 50% or 25% chance of admission were dissuaded from applying to Oxbridge because either they, their parents or their teachers underestimated the chances of getting in, or were afraid of the penalties of "wasting" an application, or of the consequences of getting a rejection, then the second half of my statement holds. Please note the followup statement in my original post about the number of US students "taking a flyer" in applying to Harvard even when the odds are long.
I'm not sure how you drew from my statement that I equated not applying to Oxbridge with a lack of ambition. I most certainly do not believe that. I do believe, however, that not applying to Oxbridge if you want to go to Oxbridge can be 'insufficiently ambitious' (it can also be the correct thing to do if your grades indicate that you have no chance whatsoever). I certainly intended no insult. However, as even after reading and re-reading my comments, I don't believe I made the assumption to which you took offense, I do not believe that I cast an insult and, therefore, offer no apology.
Perhaps this will help establish my bona fides. I live in London, near Hampstead. Two of the schools located nearby are South Hampstead High School and Henrietta Barnett. SHHS is a selective private girls school. HBS is a selective state girls grammar school. In the Sutton Trust's 2007 report, these two schools show up as ranked #17 and #53 by Oxbridge hit rate, at 21.2% and 13.6%. HBS, by the way, was in the top 10 state schools by this metric.
In evaluating schools for my DD, I could have just stopped here and said that SHHS does better than HBS, but I chose to dig a little further. On various web fora there were allegations that HBS students were preferring medicine courses disproportionately. I went on the schools' websites and found that roughly 6-8% of girls from SHHS chose medicine or dentistry courses outside of Oxbridge. Roughly 20% of HBS girls did so.
I focused on medicine and dentistry because I am under the impression that these courses in most universities are as difficult to get into as most Oxbridge courses. Clearly I have missed many other competitive course/university combinations because I do not have the knowledge of which are the most sought after.
There were also allegations that HBS girls were disproportionately from Asian families who preferred that they live at home during university, i.e., confining their choices to London schools. Whilst I cannot confirm this directly, I can say that the local authority website indicates that approximately 50% of HBS students are indeed Asian and 75% non-white.
So what did I found after all this? Beyond that the Oxbridge hit rate is a very incomplete indicator, I found that Henrietta Barnett School, a state school, puts at least 35% of its students into very competitive programs while South Hampstead High School, considered by many to be a top private school (arguably one of the top three girls schools in London), achieves only about 30%. I know my data is incomplete and, perhaps I am still focusing on the wrong things, but at least I am keeping an open mind and trying to uncover something closer to the truth.
Up to this point I've refrained from ad hominem attacks but, I must say, you seem to find an awful lot of things either patronizing or insulting. I came onto this board hoping to find more information about the educational system in this country and to engage in collaborative discussions. I'm not interested in continuing this discussion with someone who engages in such an adversarial manner.