Is it likely Irish unification will happen in years to come?

[cuppateaandabiccie]

I’m in NI and I quite like being a part of the UK so I most certainly am against a United Ireland.

i like our education system and I know the health service is on its knees, but I’d rather not pay every time I need to go to the doctors.

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

If the Deputy First Minister and First Minister both hold equal office - then surely they had the same chances of trying to implement a border poll when the they were Deputy First Minister?

if there was to be a border poll, do people think the majority would support Irish unity or go against it?

also, do people think the DUP will refuse to enter government with Sinn Fein as FM?

I agree, also you will lose the right to work in the U.K. … many people in Belfast work for U.K. companies

But what about the people in the republic - will they get a border poll? Surely what they want matters too.

Many people in the south don’t want to pay to subsidise NI upon reunification, especially when NI enjoy a better standard of living than a lot in the south do. Things are much cheaper in NI. Surely that will cause resentment?

Also many people in the south very much see NI as a separate country and wouldn’t naturally see it as part of ROI.

The economic and societal structures are so diverged between the two, it’s going to be very difficult and painful on both sides to reunify.

It's a complicated question with no easy or universally popular answers.

Personally, I suspect we are slowly edging towards unification of Ireland, and this has been accelerated by Brexit. I'm not saying that is what I would want to happen, just trying to be realistic.

I'm not in Northern Ireland. I'm English. My father was from Belfast though and I do still have some relatives there who would not like to see the union dissolved.

I agree op, I certainly don't want it

Why would you lose the right to work in the UK? People from the Republic of Ireland have had this right since 1922. Or are you assuming the Common Travel Agreement would be torn up?

Yes

I wouldn’t assume that

I'm from Northern Ireland, but lived in the Republic for quite a few years. I Don't think the Republic would benefit from joining up with Northern Ireland.

Sinn Feins ultimate goal will be united Ireland but they won't look for a border poll yet as they know they wouldn't get the answer they are looking for yet. Remember it's the very first time for a nationalist majority and don't want to repeat the Scottish issue with their referendum.
Yes I think DUP will refuse to form a government with Sinn Fein as holding the First Minister position. But they are claiming its due to the Brexit issue which we all know is a smoke screen.
I'd like a united Ireland but it will take a long time before we are ready to make that happen.
Yes we would lose the NHS but let's be honest can you imagine the NHS won't collapse in the next few decades forcing ppl to have to get private health insurance?
Also yes UK companies might pull out of NI but a large number pulled out after Brexit anyway. Those UK companies will be replaced by ROI companies.

I'm from ROI and have lived in NI for donkeys now. I don't see it happening any time soon. I don't see any appetite for it in my friends and family down south. I also think that if SF push for a border poll it'll kill their chances of political success south of the border. So many (especially young) people seem to be in denial as to who SF are - serious moves towards a border poll will shatter that.

It’s complicated, isn’t it? Understatement.

Westminster isn’t interested in NI. And it doesn’t appear the ROI is, either. Plus plenty of NIers don’t want it.

So is it just a cohort of NIers who actually want it?

See the attached figures from Eilis O'Hanlon below. It's obviously in the interests of the Republican movement to create the impression that a border poll is coming very soon.

But the figures don't support that. Neither do most opinion polls, come to that. A majority is still in favour of remaining within the UK and against a united Ireland.

This result isn't actually seismic in terms of the Union itself. Note how the combined Nationalist and Republican vote is lower in 2022 than it was in 2007, for example.

That the title of FM is largely symbolic is really another way of saying "same story, different day" in the context of the post-GFA era.

As it stands, Stormont still has Unionism as the largest designation.

I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP will refuse to form an Executive until/unless they get the concessions they're after.

Forgot to attach the image.

There is no Nationalist majority as its still not the largest designation in Stormont.

On the contrary, it's the first time a Republican party has emerged as the largest party which is a different thing. And that isn't as impressive as it sounds, especially since they merely gained about +3,000 votes.

Alliance, on the other hand, gained a whopping +44,000 votes which should be the REAL story in media coverage.

But a Republican party as the largest is simply a sexier story although it says little about the realities of the numbers themselves.

Actually, I rarely say this, but I agree with DownNative.

I don't think the result were that seismic.

The DUP and SF still have by far the most seats. The DUP didn't lose many despite their near criminal incompetence. I'm an Alliance voter and a huge Naomi Long fan, I'm delighted they did so well but given it's at the expense of the other moderate parties and the Greens have lost both their seats, I can't get overly excited.

As someone who isn't from NI, my divide isn't nationalist/unionist or Catholic/Protestant - it's what I will call normal/nutjob. To me, SF and the DUP are just two sides of the same coin. Oh, yay, the other one has a slight majority now. Wohoo...

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

Sinn Fein are the party that has more single elected representatives than any other, but there are more elected reps from all the other parties combined than there are Sinn Fein reps by quite some measure. Sinn Fein only have about 30ish percent of the seats I think.

Democracy doesn't work that well when there are more than two options - although there isn't any better way.

Have their been any opinion polls within Ireland about whether they want to unite with NI?

www.politico.eu/article/poll-ireland-unification-support-costs-brexit/

This article quotes a 2021 poll saying 2/3rds in ROI support reunification if there are no financial implications.

In reality, I think if it was seriously mooted and people realised all of the consequences (the DUP in Irish government in some form for one) I think that number would fall.

I agree that the people of the republic should also have a vote in relation to reunification. It is not simply a question of Northern Ireland deciding they want to part of a united Ireland and it will happen but some people seem to think this will be the case. Many in the republic do not want a united Ireland. It would be a difficult reunification both culturally and financially as both countries are so different despite both being part of a small island.

While I agree things cost less in Northern Ireland, it doesn't necessarily mean that there is a better standard of living in Northern Ireland. While costs are higher, salaries are also substantially higher in the republic and many the younger generations of Northern Irish are moving to Dublin and other cities to work for social, financial and cultural reasons as well as the significant job opportunities.

Don't panic Captain! There won't be a border poll for 10 years minimum. Sinn Féin are too cute to fall into the Brexit trap. Imagine a poll with only 2 options , one of which nobody understands and it is won / lost by 0.5% of the vote. Recipe for doom. And what is meant by Reunification? Two state federation perhaps. Joint sovereignty maybe. For sure the R o I will not try to absorb or take over N I. Nobody here has the faintest idea how to run the 6 so Stormont is going nowhere in any new set up. They don't know how to run Cork ffs as a friend put it. And he's in SF. All this stuff would have to be worked on long before any Referendum. Just like the GFA and Equal Marriage , Repeal etc where the groundwork was laid properly. The schools and hospitals would have to be protected and so on.

There would be serious financial implications though - the poll also suggests that only 1 in 8 would vote for reunification if The Republic had to take on the full cost of subsidising Northern Ireland which in probably would have to. If The Republic didnt, the the residents of Northern Ireland wouldn't want to be united as it would significantly impact their standard of living.

I think a reunification will happen over time and I doubt the mutual advantages of the 1922 agreement will be thrown away. But I think accepting NI into Eire would be as expensive for the Irish budget as was taking East Germany into the German state because NI is a financial drag on the UK economy and would be proportionately a larger one on the Irish state.

Oh absolutely, the financial repercussions would be dire for ROI. I know at the time of the Brexit vote and resultant negotiations there was talk of EU funding and money from the UK, but even if that did materialise I don't think it would come close to the true cost.

I think a border poll shouldn't be considered until NI has been more stable for a longer period, and I don't think a vote should be held until the precise details have been thrashed out and both sides of the border know what they're voting for. I think the complete catastrophe of Brexit will only make people more reluctant to vote for such massive constitutional change.

I'm from NI too. I don't think Sinn Fein will call for a border poll anytime soon I think their focus will be on NI as independent first and play the long game.
I'd love to see Ireland United in my lifetime but that's only a fantasy and not something that makes sense economically or for my Children's future. So not something I would vote for right now or in the next decade without massive changes in ROI.
I hope the DUP don't go into government I hope for direct rule in all honesty. I'm happy with the British laws but I want them all (abortion, gay rights, licensing laws etc). I also think the UK government see the benefits of the protocol which are never talked about, the protocol is fantastic in my opinion and if I was in government I'd be spending money on our roads, infrastructure and travel links, lowering corporation tax and saying to the rest of the world 'come here we have a direct route to the UK and EU and high calibre graduates'

I don't know anyone in ROI who is interested in reuniting Ireland.

It would mean financial ruin for ROI

I work with quite a few people who commute from NI to ROI for work.

I don't think it will happen. Irish people don't really want Ni back, on the whole. It would cost us far too much money, and for what? Where's the benefit?