Is it likely Irish unification will happen in years to come?

[cuppateaandabiccie]

I’m in NI and I quite like being a part of the UK so I most certainly am against a United Ireland.

i like our education system and I know the health service is on its knees, but I’d rather not pay every time I need to go to the doctors.

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

If the Deputy First Minister and First Minister both hold equal office - then surely they had the same chances of trying to implement a border poll when the they were Deputy First Minister?

if there was to be a border poll, do people think the majority would support Irish unity or go against it?

also, do people think the DUP will refuse to enter government with Sinn Fein as FM?

Yep I don’t know anyone in ROI who wants reunification. Times have moved on and although there is a shared identity being Irish, NI is vastly different to ROI and the costs of reunification would be too much for the Irish economy to bare.

I agree there can't be a binary yes/no poll. Brexit has taught us that there needs to be a lot more clarity. How do you combine two health / judicial / education etc etc systems. Potentially huge implications for jobs. The massive NI civil service is also a factor plus everyone in NI who has paid into the UK pension system.

Also agree we in NI will all soon be paying for health anyway. SF have been successful in the republic on their economic policies I don't think they focus on the border.

I've relatives down south and they still view up here with wary scepticism and a tinge of fear despite having been up here loads when they were kids.

I was talking about this with friends recently and my feeling is that reunification is closer than it has ever been but still not likely. The only reason that it's closer is not particularly because more NI people want to be in Ireland or because Ireland wants it but because the British govt is treating NI very badly, however I don't think that would be enough of a push unless it gets much worse. NI citizens who are born there already have the benefit of having both Irish (and therefore EU) and British nationality so there isn't all that much to gain.

Any border poll will itself be binary and only offer a binary choice. I cannot imagine Republicans being happy with a multiple choice ballot paper.

You say SF/PIRA haven't focused on the border yet that's what they largely focus on to this day. Sure, at Easter they were flogging united Ireland Easter Eggs, going on about a border poll before the election and during the election were pushing the border poll angle in the United States. It's disingenuous to suggest they don't focus on a border poll when that is their main objective.

Their recent electoral success in the Republic of Ireland was largely a protest vote against FF/FG and those voters weren't focusing on a border poll themselves.

In Northern Ireland, their electoral performance wasn't particularly impressive with no seats gained and a minimal increase in votes.

It's Alliance who've had by far impressive success at the ballot box this time. Don't think anyone saw that level of performance in predictions beforehand.

I agree their success in RoI is partly a protest vote but they do appeal to huge numbers of people outside of the united Ireland issue.

So much would need to be thrashed out before I'd vote in a border poll.

Alliances success is impressive!

The entire issue was explained to me by a very decent, unassuming bloke in a bar in Ireland (so not a Northern Irish republican but just Irish). Here is what he said:

"We just want our wee North back."

There may be many thinky, analytical folk in Ireland who don't agree. However, his comment made me curious so, like a bull in a china shop, I kept asking opinions in every bar I went to. In my defense, I was brought up in Northern Ireland so this seemed like a safe place to ask this question because nobody's armed, for once. No kneecapping teenage drug dealers here etc.

Readers, I can report that they just want their wee North back.

Within Northern Ireland I think the light of unification is very faintly on the horizon but a growing number of people would vote for Prince Andrew to be king of Ireland if it meant never having to listen to the DUP again. They are incompetent and toxic.

British govt is treating NI very badly

I disagree. The British government had to do a Brexit deal with their hands tied behind their back under severe pressure from the DUP. The DUP hate the result but they were instrumental in bringing this situation about. And most people who aren't ardent unionists acknowledge that they have been really crap in every way. The infighting and deposing of queens and kings hasn't helped.

I think once the reality of getting their wee north back starts to sink in, and they get out of the pub into the real world with bills to pay and hospital appointments to wait for, that want will fade sharpish.

I think the prospect is very remote. Most people in Ireland accept that if there is a border poll, there will be a citizen's convention to work out the terms under which a referendum would be held. I expect that when people see the concessions that the unionists would extract in exchange for precisely nothing of use to the people of Ireland, the mood will sour very quickly.

As a total outsider I am surprised that unification apparently isn't that popular in the ROI. Why is that?
I work with Europeans and it feels like I am constantly having to defend the existence of NI. The perspective from Europe seems to be that the UK are desperate to keep NI, whereas as a British person I have always felt that most of us would vote for unification like a shot. I have no idea what Britain has to gain from keeping NI and I am fairly sure must British people feel that way.

I assumed that ROI hated the British so much for occupying part of their country and couldn't wait to take it back.

I too am in NI. I am catholic and so I suppose automatically a nationalist. I would find it very, very hard to make a decision in a border poll now, and would almost certainly abstain from voting.

I personally like being from here, and I don’t really see any advantage from becoming part of the Irish system of governance or economy. I like it as we are now.

I don’t want to see the boat rocked, I don’t want any more violence, I don’t want members of the unionist community to feel othered (like we were…!). I want my children and their friends to grow up in peace and mutual respect in the place where they currently live.

I feel it is worth putting more into what we have up here now, to make it better, than focusing on something which, I feel, will ultimately make things worse for quite a few generations.

The Irish-American MN contingent will also be along shortly to tell you that indeed that's true and all the world hates the UK and NI should be handed back.

I'll try but I'm no history buff!

There is huge distaste at British actions on the island of Ireland, including the creation of NI and the actions of the British state during the Troubles.

The Troubles also somewhat isolated NI from ROI as it was seen as (accurately!) more dangerous, crossing the border was a scary thing with army checks etc. Plus, there was the British view of it as an Irish problem, so Irish people would get terrorist jokes as if the only antagonist was the IRA, and this wasn't a civil war within the UK (something most British people still seem to fail to realise).

The Troubles was awful. Awful. Then, peace came and the Irish people voted overwhelmingly to remove the constitutional claim to NI - this was the same day the people of NI voted in favour of the Good Friday Agreement.

That was right at the start of the Celtic Tiger years, a time of prosperity and massive cultural changes in Ireland. NI essentially in many ways got left behind.

The two are quite different in many ways (although probably not too obviously to outsiders in the grand scheme of things). Irish people are more and more aware of the logistical challenges involved and the extent to which the UK bankrolls NI - there is huge public sector employment for example.

So while there might be a cultural wish for the island to be reunited at some point, there's little appetite for it to happen immediately.

Hope that makes sense, I've bashed it out when I should be working.

I don’t want to see the boat rocked, I don’t want any more violence, I don’t want members of the unionist community to feel othered (like we were…!). I want my children and their friends to grow up in peace and mutual respect in the place where they currently live.

This nicely sums up my thoughts too.

I assumed that ROI hated the British so much for occupying part of their country and couldn't wait to take it back.

I think Irish people would be glad to subsume NI. I don't think there's much appetite to change much about Ireland to achieve it. We could do them a favour and let them in happily enough, but change the flag and the national anthem to cater to the Unionists? I can't see that going down well.

The last one in the Republic was 62 % in favour and 17% against. But of course that would change during a Referendum campaign one way or the other I suppose. I disagree with DownNative about multiple options. The SNP wanted them on the ballot for example. If SF were offered some fudgey federal solution tomorrow they'd bite Johnsons hand off. I wonder if Sturgeon would? An interesting thing about Unionists is how left wing they are on economic issues , compared to their allies in the Tory Party. I can't remember anyone ever saying ' I voted Tory because I love the NHS '.

I'm sure you could ask every person in Ireland and get a slightly different point of view Horological however my personal point of view is that NI politicians are in general quite problematic, not all of them obviously. If Ireland was united then those politicians would be part of the Irish govt, and a fairly significant part. The population of RoI is about 5 million and the population of NI is approaching 2 million, so over a quarter of the combined population of a united Ireland would be formerly NI. I think it would be quite a culture shock for both populations.

Both ROI and UK being in the EU did help, I think. If both states are part of something bigger, sovereignty issues are less painful.

I'm English. I wouldn't be surprised if the island of Ireland was reunited in my lifetime. I have no strong feelings either way: it's up to the people on that island to decide. I'm always mystified about claims that the British want to hang on to NI. A bit hard to pass it over when the majority (still) want to be part of the UK. What are we supposed to do: take the Union Flags off the marchers? Ethnically cleanse it first and bring all the unionists to GB?

And yes, Britain did do terrible things in Ireland historically. Can't dispute that.

I think people have turned to the Alliance Party if they've moved away from the DUP. Rather than to TUV or whoever. Seems that's more about making NI work better as it is rather than reunification.

I don’t want to see the boat rocked

No one does but this isn't a boat, it's a sinking bathtub scuppered by a failed powers sharing arrangement and Stormont sits empty while Northern Irish people suffer for lack of governance. How much are you prepared to sacrifice to protect that worthless entity? Needs must. There needs to be something in place that works and it's clearly not power sharing anymore. The DUP can't powershare within their own party and they really believe the 'other side' are terrorists who shouldn't morally have a place at the table. There's no boat here to even rock.

Please correct me, but it is my understanding that this vote was a protest vote because of the protocol. Applying the thumbscrews on the British government to throw it out no? As soon as I saw the result it occurred to me that if nothing else this needs to be resolved urgently.

If the people of NI really wanted to unify, of course the UK would support them in their decision

You'd also be on the hook financially. It's remarkable how little thought UK people give to this aspect of it - we won't be the only ones paying for unification (if it happens).

Britain did terrible things in Ireland and in N Ireland. No doubt about that at all. I'm just a bit fed up with the perception of Europeans (and Americans) that the British are ongoing Imperialists who want to hold on to NI at all costs. I think you would be very hard pressed indeed to find a British person who thinks that. Now I am learning that ROI isn't in a rush to be united either and yet the perception persists that divided Ireland is still the will of the British.