Is it likely Irish unification will happen in years to come?

[cuppateaandabiccie]

I’m in NI and I quite like being a part of the UK so I most certainly am against a United Ireland.

i like our education system and I know the health service is on its knees, but I’d rather not pay every time I need to go to the doctors.

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

If the Deputy First Minister and First Minister both hold equal office - then surely they had the same chances of trying to implement a border poll when the they were Deputy First Minister?

if there was to be a border poll, do people think the majority would support Irish unity or go against it?

also, do people think the DUP will refuse to enter government with Sinn Fein as FM?

Surprised by and completely disagree with pps saying (1) catholic and Protestant young people in NI don’t meet til uni and (2) that NI and ROI are culturally very different.

I grew up in Belfast in the 90s/00s and have since lived in Dublin and London. Irish people north and south are more culturally similar to each other than either of them to the U.K., and there’s not such a massive difference between NI/ROI and the U.K. either. Shared language, shared film/tv/music, increased secularisation, progressive values. Differences are massively overstated.

As for “segregation”, there are religious schools north and south of the border. I’m Catholic but went to a Protestant school in Belfast and about 40% of the students were Catholic. Did loads of extra curricular stuff with kids from all across NI.

on the original question, I think a border poll is inevitable, but in say 10 years once the impact of Brexit and whatever mess they make of the protocol is felt. I think I will see reunification in my lifetime.

I wouldn't say NI and ROI are culturally significantly different from each other? I would say they share lots of cultural references plus people from the North live in the South/ RoI and vice versa - relatives from both and living and moving between both are very common - certainly the case in my own family. Just like everyone North and South/ RoI alike have an English cousin (or two!) -a la Derry Girls.

But I agree a slow transition is required. Maybe things sporting like a joint Olympic team, a joint national football team / rugby team, even things like a joint Eurovision song plus other similar cultural things - so NI and ROI are on the same side, cheering for the same things. I don't know if it that would cause problems like which flag to wave at the Olympics etc however so possibly not good ideas.

I think a big sticking point may just be things like pensions - could RoI take on the NI pension payments for NI pensioners? I don't know who has the higher weekly pension atm. There could be a period of transition rather than an expectation from day 1 but the rUK couldn't be expected to continue paying for too long. I think it could all get very complicated.

We will see how people view themselves when the census results are released .

Why reunite ? Simply to right a historic wrong . Ireland should never have been divided in the first place . It was never expected to survive as long as it has and it’s in its last days now .

None of the issues you mention are insurmountable. There is co operation across the island re health - all children’s heart operations are done in Dublin and have been for some time . Cancer patients from Donegal are treated in Altnagelvin .

Im not saying it will be easy - it won’t . But slow integration is already well underway and I’m glad to see it .

Health will be the main issue and I believe both north and south can learn from each other on that front . Health systems constantly change and ours inthe north needs redone from the ground up! Health is a devolved issue so health in the north ( I think technically it’s not the NHS in the north) already differs from that in the rest of the uk.

Schooling is not a huge issue - Scotland has a different education system from England ( Wales too I think) and they cope fine .

And like it or not the reunification of Ireland will have huge international appeal . The US and the EU will be keen to support things financially .

It would be interesting to see how devolution could work in a united Ireland. You'd potentially have 6 Irish counties still doing their own thing and governed from Stormont as it would be difficult politically to give up their current responsibilities to hand over to Dublin - but then would this result in cries of unfairness from other areas of Ireland that want the same - ie. devolved powers for their counties. Bit like the regular calls we get here in England from Cornwall or Yorkshire or London to govern themselves more.
Devolution works ok in the UK as the devolved Governments concerned are separate countries but that would not be the case in a United Ireland. It's the opposite process almost.
I don't know - the more I think about it the more complicated it is and actually more complicated than Brexit in some ways as cultural factors like flags, sports teams, etc were not a factor in Brexit. e.g we could ditch the EU flag for example without anyone really getting offended / upset.
I think the Taoiseach is completely right - you'd be created a new country and that would require a lot of thought - not just slogans and a desire however honorable to right a historic wrong. You'd need buy in from the North and RoI too

Well if it ever does happen bloody Ireland's Call better not be the National anthem!

Agreed !

I really don’t see any of the issues as insurmountable. There are plenty of examples where Scotland differs from England despite being part of the same country. This could be the case in NI on a transitional or permanent basis.

obviously a proportion of NI would be up in arms (perhaps literally) about it, but the fleg issue wouldn’t be the main problem!

England and Scotland are two separate countries though. Not the same country. Irish unification would be to create the same country not two separate countries.
i’m not saying insurmountable but you can’t compare to England and Scotland really.

You can compare them . Isn’t the UK one country ?

For now that is !

No of course not!! It's 4 separate countries - England, Northern Ireland , Scotland and Wales
Each country has it's own flag (I don't think NI do as they can't agree one), national anthem (ditto NI but others do) and own Government with devolved powers e.g health too.
That's why you can't easily compare the UK (a union of 4 separate countries) to Irish unification (the creation of one country)

@sashagabadon to state the bleeding obvious, England and Scotland are both part of the U.K, which is the point I’m making.

In the context of a transition to a united Ireland it would be possible for NI to retain separate arrangements for eg education in much the same way Scotland does as compared to England. For some things those differences could be temporary; for others permanent. Fwiw there are plenty of “cultural” differences between Scotland and England, or indeed Northern and Southern England too.

but then would this result in cries of unfairness from other areas of Ireland that want the same - ie. devolved powers for their counties. Bit like the regular calls we get here in England from Cornwall or Yorkshire or London to govern themselves more.

I don't think that's the case at all. You've got to remember, this is not the UK. The other parts of Ireland are not crying out for devolution and are unlikely to start. It's just not an issue that has ever really been of interest, outside of some joking in Cork.

Also lol at flags and national anthems being a deciding factor.

Of course NI has its own flag - it’s part of the Union Jack.

Then you would be creating a union of 2 countries - RoI and NI - not one country.

Like the UK is a union of 4 countries

And if Irish unification doesn't actually create one country - Ireland - then what is the point?

NI would be moving from a union of 4 countries to a union of 2 countries

That may be what they want to do which is for the people of NI to decide - but the point I am making is that it is not simply creating one nation state.
What would happen to the currency for example - would NI continue with sterling and RoI continue with the Euro?? You would have to have the same currency within a union. It's a massive sticking point with Scottish independence for example. What currency do they use? The pound is backed by the Bank of England.

I'd be interested in the legalities and technicalities of it all so I could understand it better . I'm no expert just thinking about it all.

The union flag is for all 4 countries of the UK. It;'s not NI's own flag. England, Scotland and Wales have their own countries flags

And yes flags do matter - they matter hugely to people.

Also lol at flags and national anthems being a deciding factor.

I don't think they'll be a deciding factor, but I do think that when people see what the unionists would want in terms of very fundamental changes, they're going to ask exactly what the unionists bring, other than trouble and expense. If it were the case that it was just the flag, just the anthem, OK, people might be willing to compromise. But when the opportunity comes to change them along with a new constitution, potentially a new education system and higher taxes, I think there's going to be a bit of "well, can they leave us nothing?".

That may be what they want to do which is for the people of NI to decide - but the point I am making is that it is not simply creating one nation state.

I think the working assumption is that it would be one nation state.

I’m afraid you are playing with semantics.
Do countries negotiate with Scotland and wales ? No.
They negotiate with the government of the UK . Brexit being the prime example . NI and Scotland both voted to remain . These ‘countries ‘ were ignored . Because it was a national vote . And a national government which took them out regardless .
If they were truly separate counties Scotland wouldn’t be agitating to leave the UK

I saw someone suggest Ireland should adopt Liz (or Charles rather) as head of state again in order to woo the unionists...

I think that would be a firm 'not on your bleedin' nelly' from 99% of Irish people. John Bruton would be well on for it though.

Yes I think this is what the unionists want, so flags , national anthems, currency, main seat of power etc all come into play. You can’t just laugh off flags as though they are unimportant and don’t matter.

I didn't.

I think it’s clear from your posts you have no clue how the U.K. works at all.

@Novella There certainly are some similarities and crossover so maybe cultural differences is the wrong description.

People in NI and the Republic have had vastly different histories, political and social policies and experiences and it will be very difficult to merge expectations of what life in a united Ireland would look like. I say that thinking of people who live on both sides of the border as there will be sacrifices required by NI and the Republic in order for there to be a united Ireland.

Another poster mentioned why couldn't NI and the Republic continue to have different school systems like Scotland and England - Scotland and England are different countries - if NI and the Republic were to unite they would be the same country.

There are a lot of people who have this romanticised idea of what a united Ireland would look like without thinking of the practicalities and political issues for both sides. If it came down to it I think many would not be willing to make the sacrifices required for it to truly work. Certainly if it meant that it would cause more unrest and violence then I think that most would prefer not to unite as that was a very dark period in Irish history that is in the not too distant past and could be very quickly reignited.

It could be a possibility in the future of course as things change.