Is it likely Irish unification will happen in years to come?

[cuppateaandabiccie]

I’m in NI and I quite like being a part of the UK so I most certainly am against a United Ireland.

i like our education system and I know the health service is on its knees, but I’d rather not pay every time I need to go to the doctors.

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

If the Deputy First Minister and First Minister both hold equal office - then surely they had the same chances of trying to implement a border poll when the they were Deputy First Minister?

if there was to be a border poll, do people think the majority would support Irish unity or go against it?

also, do people think the DUP will refuse to enter government with Sinn Fein as FM?

I have been to Ireland many times, and relatively speaking it is a poor country. Living standards are fairly low by western standards and precarious employment.

What?

This is really terrible to say but I noticed on the map of where seats were won Alliance did best in the less working class areas of Northern Ireland. Anyone any opinions as to why?

The numbers suggest a united Ireland isn't any closer in 2022 than it was in 2007. The combined votes for Nationalists is more or less right where it was in 1998.

The obvious conclusion there is that, as Unionists, we aren't loyal to successive British Governments. And never were, historically.

Instead, we are loyal to the British people, the Union and the idea of the Union.

To focus on what any British Government does is to misunderstand the people themselves.

I think the late John Hume was able to grasp that whereas the Republican leaders simply have not.

But you're quite right to suggest there isn't much for Northern Ireland's people to gain from reunification. More representation in Dublin compared to London? Still a minority in either setup and can be easily outvoted, but greater representation isn't a major driving force for many, especially not Unionists today.

There's not much for Irish people to gain from reunification either. But I suspect it will happen in the next 20 years nonetheless.

Very broadly, the more extreme parties (DUP & SF) appeal more in poorer areas where people have more to lose to them'uns and that fear drives the vote. Poorer areas also suffered more in the Troubles, which again, feeds into a larger fear of the other community gaining an advantage.

In wealthier areas, people tended to vote more for the more moderate parties (UUP & SDLP), I think largely because there isn't that same fear, those parties performed poorly and Alliance have been great over the past few years so Alliance won votes.

Like I said upthread, I'm glad Alliance did well, but winning seats from the Greens, SDLP and the UUP (possibly? can't quite remember and too lazy to google) isn't necessarily a sign of any great progress.

Let's assume all this happened for the sake of it.

The first and obvious mistake there is the line "we just want our wee North back". In 1998, the people of the Republic of Ireland voted to give up ALL territorial claims over Northern Ireland which had been a feature of their constitution since 1937.

In short, they recognised by a very healthy majority that Northern Ireland doesn't belong to them. And that it belongs to the people of Northern Ireland alone as its ultimately ourselves who will decide our constitutional future.

Opinion polls all demonstrates that support for a united Ireland in the Republic is very much conditional. It falls if they're asked whether they'd like to pay more taxes for it which in turn means a permanent decline in their own living standards.

The fact its conditional is something many Northern Republicans and Nationalists do not like to acknowledge.

No, there isn't much for ROI citizens to gain although the emotional aspect can be strong for them. However, when reality bites their support will only drop and all polls tell us support in the ROI is conditional.

Considering the last 24 years has seen Nationalism stuck on 40% of votes, the numbers isn't there to win a referendum. And there's nothing to suggest it's going to increase in 20 years from now either.

It's highly significant that both a Northern Irish identity and Alliance have been the only ones to grow substantially the last 24 years. It suggests a Northern Ireland centric identity and future. The identity itself is and will be within Northern Ireland's borders - not outwith it.

I agree with you here @DownNative particularly in relation to the NI identity. I definitely feel this much more so than when I was younger.

I know lots of catholics now playing for and representing NI in sports, whereas when I was younger this would’ve been an absolute no go.

I would say it's more accurate to say that Republic of Ireland citizens' support for a united Ireland aspiration is very much conditional.

It looks like most of them don't want the Republic to change in any significant way, even though their Taoiseach has said a united Ireland would be a new country entirely.

There's a lot of obstacles in the way which is not popularly understood in the United States, rest of the UK or Europe as a whole.

Europeans have mostly forgotten their own border issues between most states there with minorities within their own borders. You'd think they'd understand the people of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland don't want to rock the boat for similar reasons most Europeans didn't want to in the early to mid 20th century. They should also understand that Northern Ireland's people have the power to decide our future. Europeans had the same issue not too long ago which many have forgotten.

As for the people of GB, a majority of them would prefer to keep Northern Ireland and Scotland within the Union. There is data on this too. But GB residents certainly understand its for the people of Northern Ireland and Scotland to decide their Constitutional future.

But there's no real clamour to boot either out of the UK for good reason.

My family are Catholics and Unionists as well. We were throughout the Troubles although none of us let on to those outside the family.

It looks like our ancestors felt they had a good life in eastern Ulster and always found work too. A good chunk of them moved here from other parts of the island and one ancestor was likely to have been involved in laying the first railway tracks in Ireland too. It explains why his kids were born in different places going south to north where we've been ever since.

During the Troubles, I identified as British only. Gradually, post-GFA I came to identify as British and Northern Irish. That is now very much a settled identity.

The 2011 census is very interesting in regards to how many Catholics identified as British only. Its not a tiny insignificant number. Most people are surprised by it.

The media really doesn't present a varied, nuanced view of Northern Ireland to their readers. They want the violence, sectarianism and murder, unfortunately. It sells.

Northern Ireland is more than that.

As for the people of GB, a majority of them would prefer to keep Northern Ireland and Scotland within the Union.

I would confidently say that the majority of people in GB who want to see the continuation of the union place far more importance on Scotland remaining part of that union than NI.

I agree with you there. The current cost of living crisis will only further increase that awareness and, therefore, put more off a united Ireland itself.

As Hume once said, "you can't eat a flag."

You'd think so, but you'd be wrong. I have the data on this, so will post later.

I realise it's very tough for people from NI who want to stay in the union to accept this.

It looks like most of them don't want the Republic to change in any significant way, even though their Taoiseach has said a united Ireland would be a new country entirely.

I think that's "because, and they know it's true and don't want that" rather than "even though".

@Swayingpalmtrees wow. I can't actually think of anything else to say except are you quite sure it was Ireland you were in? I've never heard it described like that before.

As an Irish person living in Ireland my whole life, I have no interest In seeing reunification. It's not something I, or many people I know think about. I don't think the majority of northern Irish people would want it either.

Also to whoever said "we just want our wee north back" I don't think I've ever met anyone Irish who uses the word wee. That's most definitely a northern thing.

Also to whoever said "we just want our wee north back" I don't think I've ever met anyone Irish who uses the word wee. That's most definitely a northern thing.

What about Donegal and their wee Daniel then?😁

Fucking hell.

I'm going to charitably assume you aimed for metaphor and missed here, and didn't intend for that post to be as grossly offensive as it reads.

Either way, read up on the preparation that went into the abortion referendum and contrast it with other votes in other countries such as, ooh, Brexit, to appreciate the seriousness with which the Irish government and electorate consider changes to their constitution.

Ah, the nation of backward, old car owning, impoverished alcoholics.

That was great! Really funny.

Please correct me, but it is my understanding that this vote was a protest vote because of the protocol. Applying the thumbscrews on the British government to throw it out no?

I'm struggling to see the rationale. The people most opposed to the protocol (DUP) will no longer head Stormont. Are you thinking that Northern Irish people voted for Sinn Fein to make Boris think twice? I don't think anyone does believe that would bother Boris and most people who voted Sinn Fein would do anything to avoid a hard land border (the only other option).

littlesnowdropfairy

No it's not definitely a Northern thing to say wee. I question if you even live there.

The combined "Unionist" vote (DUP + UUP + TUV) is still slightly larger than the combined "Nationalist" vote (SF + SDLP). The difference being that the Unionist vote is more split than the Nationalist vote and the Alliance has picked some of those votes up. If SF form a government after the next Irish election (unless everyone else combines to stop it like they have before), that's when it gets a bit less unlikely.