Coronavirus ROI/NI part 3

[YoungsterIwish]

The 3rd thread

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/craicnet/3874978-Coronavirus-in-ROI-NI-part-2?pg=40

I don’t have a huge amount of sympathy either, but don’t see why I should lose my job or home as a result. This isn’t going away, level 5 restrictions won’t change that, but will destroy the country economically. We need to find a way to live with this virus - social distancing, masks, hand washing, reduced contacts, and fines for those who break the rules. And the old and vulnerable may just need to restrict movements more than that to protect their health as the simple fact is they are more at risk.

@JaneJeffer

the kids out playing with the neighbours, teenagers trooping in and out of houses But they're all together at school and on the school bus, playing Gaelic matches, etc. How is that any different?

Well, firstly, they're not all at school together. There are at least four different schools involved in this case. And, secondly, even if they were at school together, they are supposed to minimise interaction outside school. Any time two people meet, the virus can spread. Every interaction is another chance for it to be passed on. This is exactly what I mean about people not being strict enough about following the guidelines. Thirdly, the interaction between children in schools or at training is regulated and supervised. That's the idea anyway.

I'm not at all comfortable with effectively locking away the old and vulnerable to benefit the rest of society if that's what you mean

What’s being suggested instead is locking away everyone. Is that better?

And what actually happens when people start losing jobs and then homes as a result of restrictions and lack of economic support? Where do you lock those people away?

but the kids out playing with the neighbours, teenagers trooping in and out of houses regularly, and going out -or staying in- for dinner/drinks with friends often.

What you’re describing is normal human interaction. There was always going to be a limit around how long we could stop people from doing these things.

We did one lockdown and complied extremely well. But we cannot be expected to adopt it as a way of life when death rates are 2.7% of peak. Where does it end?

The death rates will go up, though, if we continue like this, they always lag behind rising case numbers.

We have to stop the normal human interactions for a while, as much as we can anyway. (And that's what NPHET have been begging us to do, for weeks now actually - to minimise our social interactions.)
That's how we can best help the economy.

If everyone was very careful - and, yes, of course it's horribly hard - then community rates would fall again. And we could relax a bit, but, crucially, not too much.

You claim that isolating ourselves is unnatural and indeed it is, but seem to have little compunction about leaving older members of society in this state indefinitely. And yes, to answer your question, I do consider a short term lockdown for everyone better, and fairer, than isolating the elderly and vulnerable endlessly.

The key, I think, is for everyone to hold themselves accountable. The government can't act alone. It's society as a whole must work together to fight Covid 19. Personal responsibility is crucial.

The death rates will go up, though, if we continue like this, they always lag behind rising case numbers.

I’m not sure how long people expect this ‘lag’ to be, but the numbers and timelines are clear. Case numbers have been rising since the end of July. In a similar time frame at the start of the pandemic, we had more than 1000 deaths by the end of April. We’ve a mere fraction of that now. It’s all in here.

covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Ronan himself said about a week ago that the FR for an over 65 has dropped from 20% at the start of the pandemic to less than 5% now.

You claim that isolating ourselves is unnatural and indeed it is, but seem to have little compunction about leaving older members of society in this state indefinitely

I beg to differ on that, it’s an appalling thing for anyone and I’m the first to admit it. Also it should be entirely voluntary.

However I fail to see what’s gained by asking everyone to do it. And there is an enormous amount to lose, not least for the vulnerable. How do we expect to be able to pay for public services if our economy is put under that degree of pressure?

If everyone was very careful - and, yes, of course it's horribly hard - then community rates would fall again

‘Careful’ is so vague though. What do you actually mean?

The major thing that seems to work is drastically reducing social contacts. As a very sociable, family oriented country that’s always going to be a huge challenge. And very difficult to police. I just don’t know how it’s done, practically.

People just won’t accept level 5. The guards should be out enforcing level 3 and they should give that chance to take effect.

The guards should be out enforcing level 3 and they should give that chance to take effect.

Absolutely. It’s madness. Level 3.5 is slowing things up in Dublin. Give it a fucking chance.

If it would definitely work, the carrot would be to have a more enjoyable Christmas. Not the usual one, but enough to help us through the winter.

It won’t work. People are sick of it. There will be mass unemployment and loss of livelihoods and the state can’t afford the increased payments anymore. They need to do the current stage properly and let it take effect before escalating to something non sustainable.
All the would happen is it would spread at Christmas.
The numbers of deaths and in hospital don’t justify this step.

An enjoyable Christmas - There won’t be money for any Christmas by doing this. Even those working at home now, at some point every industry is doing to be affected by this economic shutdown

Also, you lock everyone down now with the promise of Christmas. Christmas comes, people sick to the back teeth of being cooped up go nuts, we’re back where we started.

The whole model of open up/shut down is flawed. We need to find strategies that minimise impact, but are sustainable over months, even years.

@TheKeatingFive

Someone made a comment up thread along the lines of "there are 20 people in ICU and there have been 20 deaths in September"

But there have actually only been 10 deaths notified in Sept of which 8 occurred in previous months so "only" 2 people have died with Corona in September. Not the 20 as stated up thread

It was me that quoted the figures and trust me, I’d love you to be right.

However, the 8 notified deaths from pre-September are in October’s figures, so have no impact on this calculation,

I think the actual figure for September deaths is 27 or so.

The only thing that struck me as weird was some odd wording about ‘dying while having Covid’ round the time that Beaumont had that incident with the ER patient coming in with Covid, so I suspect a few deaths weren’t entirely due to Covid itself then.

The whole model of open up/shut down is flawed. We need to find strategies that minimise impact, but are sustainable over months, even years.
But we do have some of those strategies at Level 1, 2 or 3 for example. They're not working, partly at least, because some people aren't prepared to cut back enough on socialising and that's what we need to do, however hard it is.
I don't think there's a magic solution, however much we'd like there to be. At least until a vaccine's developed.

They're not working, partly at least, because some people aren't prepared to cut back enough on socialising and that's what we need to do, however hard it is.

I think tighter controls on household mixing in the earlier levels is the thing that could make a difference.

Which is actually what NPHET suggested a couple of days ago. Fgs.

Also actually enforcing the levels that are there (like the raves). That’s the ridiculous part.

My point is that the balance of measures at levels 2/3 might not be exactly right. That should first prompt a tweaking of them to see if they can be made to work better.

Not panic hit the nuclear button of level 5.

And if we’re looking at death rates and ICU admissions rather than case numbers, how much adjustment would we deem to be actually necessary?

Tighter controls on household mixing

How exactly do you do that? The Guards patrolling the streets and knocking on doors to see who's inside a la Wuhan?

How else can it be done? Appealing to people's better nature is not working, NPHET have been begging people to drastically reduce their contacts for a few weeks now, but many are ignoring that. What alternative is there but to impose it on them?

What alternative is there but to impose it on them?

Well we could continue Dublin 3.5 restrictions for starters. They appear to be working, if slowly.

Introduce NPHET’s recos from last week on household mixing.

Actually enforce blatant flouting of the rules like the raves.

There are many options to explore before contemplating locking down the whole country.

My point is that the balance of measures at levels 2/3 might not be exactly right. That should first prompt a tweaking of them to see if they can be made to work better.
Unfortunately, I think the time for tweaking has passed. The rise in cases is too alarming now. It is a terrible pity though.

The rise in cases is too alarming now.

Why focus on cases though? We should be focusing on the rise in serous illness. So many of these ‘cases’ barely feature in medical terms, being asymptomatic/extremely mild.

Well, I trust NPHET to do a better analysis of that that I can tbh. If they're recommending Level 5 they must be very worried.

Well, I trust NPHET to do a better analysis of that that I can tbh. If they're recommending Level 5 they must be very worried.

But their only agenda is suppressing the disease. They’re unconcerned with the costs of that.

Trust who you like, up to you, but I find it extraordinary that people aren’t looking at the bigger picture here.

The economic implications of level five now are pretty disastrous. For a disease that’s hospitalising less than 5% of those who get it.

The army need to be drafted in to prevent & break up these anti mask rallies. They are happening in Dublin every single weekend... 1,000 protesters filled grafton St on Saturday, why are they getting away with this or others who are abiding with all the guidelines have to suffer as a consequence of their actions