Coronavirus ROI/NI part 3

[YoungsterIwish]

The 3rd thread

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/craicnet/3874978-Coronavirus-in-ROI-NI-part-2?pg=40

That's a surprise, I thought maybe level 4 in Dublin, but not 5.

I know it would be disastrous for so many businesses, but the numbers are out of control, and as for the numbers in the north 😵

Level 5 but schools open seems a bit mad, look at the numbers for young children and teens, they have increased a lot over the last month. I don't think I'd send my dc in and I wonder how teachers will feel about it.

I know it would be disastrous for so many businesses, but the numbers are out of control, and as for the numbers in the north

How many of those ‘numbers’ are asymptomatic cases?

Looking at the figures, it seems like hospital admissions are running at under 5% of cases.

Deaths right now are at 2.7% what they were at the peak. For context.

I hear you @TheKeatingFive but what do the government do with this advice, ignore it?

People are not observing social distancing any more, and that's the big issue. I see it every time I leave the house, do the school run, go to the supermarket. So many have thrown in the towel in the basic rules, I get why, they are tired of it, but how do you get them back to basics?

@JaneJeffer

I don't think people will stand for another full lockdown.

I don't care what they do as long as the schools stay open.

There'll be murder if they close them again.

but what do the government do with this advice, ignore it?

They balance it out with all the other considerations relevant to running a country.

Of course people are sick of restrictions. Most people’s personal risk is minimal and they know that. Meanwhile they’re separated from family and friends, watching the economy go under.

So what do you do? Be smarter about who is high risk (excellent data is available on this, but not being widely used). Figure out a plan specifically for them.

Then put in place measures that everyone else can actually live with long term. Thus might go on for years, best get ready for it. Get the behavioural psychologists in to advise on how to enforce. Carrots and sticks. Actually enforce it (we are monumentally crap at this). A small but problematic minority have never obeyed anything and need to be brought into line.

And throw everything we have right now at increasing health service capacity.

No more locking down/opening up. It’s disastrous on every level. We need to be smarter. But this government bring absolutely nothing to the table.

I'm a bit at a nationwide level 5 recommendation. It does seem very extreme, although the only difference it will actually make to me is not being able to go to the gym, everything else will be the same pretty much so long as the schools stay open.

I know, I'm livid too, but I'm mostly raging at the selfishness of people heading out on pubcrawls as I described upthread, or to raves, and who have no thought for older people separated for months on end from their families, or for business people losing their livelihoods. They're the ones I'm angry at. NPHET is between a rock and a hard place. If we have no vaccine, and no effective anti-viral treatments, isolation is our only weapon - that's medicine 101. And the way the numbers are increasing at the moment, the country will end up shutting down anyway if they don't act, just with many more deaths and much more devastation.

@TheKeatingFive

but what do the government do with this advice, ignore it?

They balance it out with all the other considerations relevant to running a country.

Of course people are sick of restrictions. Most people’s personal risk is minimal and they know that. Meanwhile they’re separated from family and friends, watching the economy go under.

So what do you do? Be smarter about who is high risk (excellent data is available on this, but not being widely used). Figure out a plan specifically for them.

Then put in place measures that everyone else can actually live with long term. Thus might go on for years, best get ready for it. Get the behavioural psychologists in to advise on how to enforce. Carrots and sticks. Actually enforce it (we are monumentally crap at this). A small but problematic minority have never obeyed anything and need to be brought into line.

And throw everything we have right now at increasing health service capacity.

No more locking down/opening up. It’s disastrous on every level. We need to be smarter. But this government bring absolutely nothing to the table.

Amen to that. Agree 100%

Its only a tiny proportion being silly about this though. The vast majority are just trying to live their lives. But it suits the government to have some scapegoats.

The problem is that this is a highly infectious disease and outside of strict lockdown, it spreads. Given that strict lockdown is not, any longer, a proportional response to the damage of the disease, we need to resign ourselves to the spread while being smart about managing its impact.

@TheKeatingFive

Its only a tiny proportion being silly about this though. The vast majority are just trying to live their lives. But it suits the government to have some scapegoats.

The problem is that this is a highly infectious disease and outside of strict lockdown, it spreads. Given that strict lockdown is not, any longer, a proportional response to the damage of the disease, we need to resign ourselves to the spread while being smart about managing its impact.

I agree.

I think people cooperated willingly with the first lockdown as scientists were still only learning about the disease. But we have the knowledge now. This could be with us for years. We cannot be coming in and out of lockdown indefinitely.

Level 5 but schools open seems a bit mad, look at the numbers for young children and teens, they have increased a lot over the last month. I don't think I'd send my dc in and I wonder how teachers will feel about it.

Oh we think it's BS. At least any teacher I know has said that.

Tbh if the virus was rampant in Ireland schools would probably have to close anyway due to lack of available staff. We're usually struggling for subs at the best of times.

@TheKeatingFive

Ffs at NPHET’s latest recommendation.

Level 5. Have they lost their collective minds?

Although tbh I'm not that bothered about this. What NPHET wants, NPHET doesn't necessarily get. Their role is to contain the virus, nothing more - if they could, they'd have us in permanent lockdown.

The government have a lot more issues to consider, not least the risk of public riots if they tried a strict lockdown again. I can't see them going for the full level 5.

However I think this letter was carefully timed to shock people back into line. People are getting lax with masks, handwashing etc. It's human nature to become complacent.

Just a correction to someone up thread. Not 20 deaths in September. Actually 2

I agree with SionnachRua. I think the intention is to give people a fright and jolt them out of complacency, though most people I come across seem to be complying with guidelines.

I'm wondering if they will put the country on level four.

Gosh I dont know that they would gamble with "giving people a fright".
What if they actually need to go to Level 5 later in the winter?...the threat of it would be gone, and you'd have lots of people saying "well...you were going to do level 5 in October and you didn't, so...."

I do agree Sionnach, that it is for the Govt to balance public health with the economy and the threat of more people engaging with the "yellow vests" of Grafton St.

One might suspect that not many of the Grafton Street sitters have diabetes, Cystic Fibrosis, cancer, brittle asthma, MS or other issues. .
I have to say, that around here, people have become much better at distancing, hand washing over the last 2 weeks- though traffic is back to pre lockdown levels.

Was passing through a small town tonight
GAA finals today..not a mask or social distancing in sight..would not be surprised if a weekend surge also lots of communions this weekend. Dr Holahan back on board too. The border counties are very high.

Dr. Doom comes back to work and full lockdown is the first thing he suggests. It’s crazy. Earlier this week they said level 3 for the rest of the country was not being recommended, then he comes back to work and it’s back to full lock down.

I’ve stuck to the rules since day 1. So have most people I know. The people commenting here saying people couldn’t stick to it- it’s a minority and should mean financial and economic ruin for the whole country.
The numbers of deaths are really low. I hope the government has the balls to take a balanced and measured approach, I think anything else would be political suicide for them and ruin for the rest of us.

Should not mean about obviously

Just a correction to someone up thread. Not 20 deaths in September. Actually 2

What do you mean?

Its only a tiny proportion being silly about this though. The vast majority are just trying to live their lives. But it suits the government to have some scapegoats.

I don't really agree with this. Yes, probably only a tiny proportion are being really silly (attending raves for example), but I see lots of people carrying on more or less normally now. Socially distancing at the supermarket and wearing masks, but the kids out playing with the neighbours, teenagers trooping in and out of houses regularly, and going out -or staying in- for dinner/drinks with friends often. Meanwhile NPHET are saying please, please reduce your social contacts and imo it's falling on deaf ears in many cases.
Don't get me wrong, lots of people are being so careful, but lots too - and not a tiny minority - have gone back to their usual lives as much as possible. And while of course that is understandable and human nature, it really isn't in the spirit of what we have been asked to do. As a society I don't think we can absolve ourselves of blame as completely as has been suggested above.

So what do you do? Be smarter about who is high risk (excellent data is available on this, but not being widely used). Figure out a plan specifically for them.

I'm interested in knowing what this plan would entail? I'm not at all comfortable with effectively locking away the old and vulnerable to benefit the rest of society if that's what you mean, and let's face it, that seems to be the only plan anyone's come up with so far.

Tomorrow will be a big look and see.
Hopefully no surprises and level 3/4 recommendation. Time to catch this

It’s not about blame. It has been made to feel like it is, but it really isn’t. The fact is the virus is much more dangerous to old and vulnerable people and to protect themselves they need to be very careful. We all should be careful, some find it more difficult than others.
The government should properly enforce the current restrictions before taking such a draconian move. They haven’t done that.
Moving to lockdown will ruin us all, businesses are on their knees. It’s a short sight and counterproductive move that won’t solve the problem but would create a lot more issues for us all.

@Shopgirl1
Yes, I totally agree restrictions should be enforced, but I don't have too much sympathy for those who find it 'difficult' to be careful about the restrictions, I'm afraid. On the other hand, I have the utmost sympathy for those whose livelihoods are at risk.

the kids out playing with the neighbours, teenagers trooping in and out of houses
But they're all together at school and on the school bus, playing Gaelic matches, etc. How is that any different?