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Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

1000 replies

Jenasaurus · 09/04/2022 05:18

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
961
Cornettoninja · 08/08/2022 15:53

Point taken on the vaccination of children, I suppose unless we have a newer vaccination showing some suppression qualities (much like we did with the current ones before variants knocked that one out) there isn’t much value from the impact of infection pov. Even then it would require a large portion of luck to hope that the variants didn’t outpace a vaccination programme.

I’m still quite wedded to schools playing a large role in spreading/seeding wider infections. The graphs out there just match term/half term times to closely to my (completely amateur) eye. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation but it’s hard to step back from that when it’s seemingly predictable.

Cornettoninja · 08/08/2022 18:04

Even then it would require a large portion of luck to hope that the variants didn’t outpace a vaccination programme

sorry to quote myself but I haven’t really kept up on variants, is Omicron relatively stable bar a few mutations?

JanglyBeads · 08/08/2022 18:39

Omicron is specialising in mutations of mutations.

Cornettoninja · 08/08/2022 18:43

Yay!?

Surely that would be good news for the next generation of vaccines?

containsnuts · 08/08/2022 22:30

Cornettoninja · 08/08/2022 18:43

Yay!?

Surely that would be good news for the next generation of vaccines?

My understanding is that omicron mutations lead to immune escape which is not great but hopefully illness continues to be mild for most.

There are concerns, however, that some of the monoclonal antibodies might not be as effective which is a worry for those at high risk.

MRex · 09/08/2022 07:02

I’m still quite wedded to schools playing a large role in spreading/seeding wider infections. The graphs out there just match term/half term times to closely to my (completely amateur) eye. I know correlation doesn’t equal causation but it’s hard to step back from that when it’s seemingly predictable.
I can only guess that you're confused about when term times are?

This year started 5th Jan with school holidays 12th-20th Feb, 2nd-18th April, 28th May-6th June, and since around 21st July. Look at the dates of peaks roughly 21st March and 4th July, then troughs with lowest points 25th Feb and 22nd May.
You might be able to argue that 25th Feb could have started due to infections returning from half term holiday (not school, holiday), but that's travel as "seed" and the spread burned out during the school term. 22nd May rise started the week before half term, half term made no difference at all to it increasing and again it burned out again before the holidays.

We're 2.5 years in now, it would be nice to look at the actual data. Schools are not solely responsible for the spread of covid, and aren't even a major factor in recent spread, Kent version was the only one with a major impact from secondary school spread. In contrast, adult travel has seeded several peaks including the first. If there are infections in the community, then there will be infections via schools too. Schools still could be a factor again if there's a mutated version, but it's more effective to use data than unwarranted assumptions and the data right now says you're wrong.

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Cornettoninja · 09/08/2022 08:44

I can only guess that you're confused about when term times are?

No.

but it's more effective to use data than unwarranted assumptions and the data right now says you're wrong

Fair enough.

JanglyBeads · 09/08/2022 18:33

BMA latest assessment of current variants

www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1969

MargaretThursday · 09/08/2022 22:58

Interesting.

boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:16

from yesterday afternoon's weekly dashboard update health metrics graph for England - heading in the right direction.

boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:17

admissions year on year and the shorter term comparisons

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:18

still for admissions percentage change in the seven day average

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:19

number in hospital full year and shorter term comparisons

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:20

number on mechanical ventilator beds

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:22

deaths within 28 days of a positive test

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:23

NHS regions in England admissions comparisons

East of England

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:23

London

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:25

Midlands

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:25

North East and Yorkshire

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:26

North West

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:26

South East

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:27

South West

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:28

same set of regional graphs for number in hospital

East of England

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 11/08/2022 15:28

London

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
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