Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

[Jenasaurus]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

and the same for the number in hospital

now individual NHS region graphs for admissions - current period daily figures and the seven day average, y=axis scale based on that regions figures; plus the per million rate for the region going back to the start of last November with a consistent y-axis used across every region.

East of England first up

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West

now the same graph pairings for the number in hospital

Again starting with the East of England

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West

twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1545122155284860929?s=21&t=7Fi9LZKqUhRefKNLRrq_bQ

"Deaths with COVID in English hospitals are now updated weekly on Thursdays. Todays update suggests that deaths are rising sharply. Adjusting recent days based on historical reporting delays suggests a 37% increase week-on-week."

Todays update suggests that deaths are rising sharply

alternatively another example that the twittersphere still struggles with the basics. And fails to learn from its oft-repeated mistakes.

Examples of sharp and not so sharp increases

Whilst as I made clear in the posts yesterday deaths (In England within 28 days of a positive test by date of death) are an on upward path it is not remotely on par with previous peaks.

This is the percentage change in the seven day average capped at 100% back tp near the start of the pandemic.

then this is the absolute numeric change in the seven day average.

From Zoe.

A new record?

ONS C19 Survey published this morning -data based on swabs take up to 29th or 30th June, depending on nation.

The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase across the UK, likely caused by increases in infections compatible with Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5.

In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 2,154,000 (95% credible interval: 2,062,600 to 2,247,100), equating to 3.95% of the population, or around 1 in 25 people.

In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 149,700 (95% credible interval: 125,800 to 174,200), equating to 4.93% of the population, or around 1 in 20 people.

In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 98,400 (95% credible interval: 82,900 to 115,100), equating to 5.36% of the population, or around 1 in 19 people.

In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 312,800 (95% credible interval: 276,100 to 350,400), equating to 5.94% of the population, or around 1 in 17 people.

comparative ONS graph just for England

whilst laden with caveats eight sub-regional areas, all in England, showed a fall in the modelled estimate as compared with last week's report. Just leaving 120 or so with increases then. 😦

whilst in the OP listings this is the link to latest weekly report www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8july2022

sub-regional graphs from the ONS survey data published today. Pair of graphs one showing the weekly modelled infection percentage estimate since 11th March so showing the exit peak; and one starting from 13th May to show the more recent position.

Starting with the North East

Northumberland

North Tyneside

Newcastle upon Tyne

South Tyneside; Sunderland; Gateshead

Darlington; County Durham

Hartlepool; Middlesbrough; Redcar and Cleveland; Stockton-on-Tees