Can someone explain to me New Zealand?

[idontknow54789]

Sorry for the ignorance/naivety here but can someone explain to me the reasonings behind such extreme lockdown measures in NZ? At the beginning of the pandemic they're approach was fully accepted but surely now with vaccines and omnicrom being a 'milder' form of covid they have to start setting sense? Is it about the health system? I understand there's a severe lack of ICU beds but is locking down so much really better for health? Can anyone explain it to me please?

@sashagabadon

It’ll play out in NZ just as it played out in U.K. and many other countries. My prediction ( especially if NZ is buzzing as a previous poster said) cases will reach 25-30k per day maybe more. Just like U.K. Testing will be very strained at times but more than U.K. as I understand NZ does batch testing which is fine when there are no cases but pointless when cases are high. There will not be enough Lft’s to go round as I think only 10 million have been ordered compared to the 1.6 billion the U.K. ordered back in 2020 (moonshot project) Supply chains will come under pressure, truckers etc, a situation similar to our “pingdemic” of summer 2021. Lots of people off work isolating causing problems just like here in U.K. But life will go on for most and NZ will get through. MIQ will be dropped as soon as the balance tips that way and the isolation period will drop to 5 days just like here as again the risk balance tips to having people working. I don’t know if JA will have vaccine passports for everything like France, I think not but I guess it depends what case numbers peak at and If she can hold her nerve. I actually am a fan of Chris Hipkins and the health minister. I think hipkins in particular understands that high cases are coming whatever they do as he has said a few things that indicate this but he doesn’t want to frighten the horses so to speak. It’s a tricky balance.

This. You're spot on, this is exactly what will happen and it's been clearly explained to the public to expect all of this. So very much removed from what is being said about NZ at the moment (lockdowns, zero covid rubbish).

The zero Covid stuff is frustrating even if you’re not in NZ. But I think it’s from a few posters very committed to the idea.

[quote whatwasIgoingtosay]@sashagabadon - or anyone else - do you have any predictions as to when the borders will be open to tourists and visitors without a direct connection to NZ? It was to be April 30th and we have bought (refundable) flight tickets for early May to visit family and friends. Are we likely to make it there this summer?[/quote]
I think early May might be too soon. If I had to guess I would say June/July could be a possibility.

@greenteafiend

I genuinely don't understand why they have this big push to zero covid which is clearly absolutely impossible in general anyway and even more so if the rest of the globe isn't adopting it as a policy.

It is not about "saving lives" from the CCP's perspective. It's about the fact that they have spent the last 18 months banging on and on about how China's success in crushing covid is a sign of competant governance, in contrast to those ineffective and decadent western countries. Of course, this now means that they risk looking like prats if they do end up unable to check the spread of omicron.

Sounds familiar ;

And good to get insight as they must be one of the few left trying to suppress still, perhaps a few small islands not sure

People asking where I am in NZ because I said "we haven't had lockdowns except for early in the pandemic." I'm in Northland.

We were one stage down in lockdown compared to AKL for a while, and then once the "traffic light" system took effect, we were at pretty much the same level.

What I meant was that it wasn't like the original level 4 lockdown we all had. The one where you couldn't get anything done except go grocery shopping and you couldn't visit with anyone not living in your house. I wasn't clear. Sorry. The reason this blithe "oh we're all going to get omicron and I just want to get on with my life" makes me cross is >>>>>>>>>>> because it does not work that way.

You don't get to decide when you're going to stop fighting the gorilla. Or the virus. You don't get to say "I'm done with winter. Besides, the snow is light and fluffy, so it's milder. I'm going out without my coat."

We do not know enough about covid to be careless about it. We know next to nothing about the likelihood of long covid after omicron or among the vaccinated. The indications are Not Good: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2#ref-CR2

Vaccination may reduce your chances of long covid by half. It may not reduce them at all. The data aren't there yet. Young people seem to get long covid at the same rate as the old. It doesn't matter whether the original infection was asymptomatic or mild.

So just letting covid blow through a population HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MASS DISABLING EVENT. (Caps because I'm cross about commenters minimizing it.) Remember, at the lower bound, about 7% of infections result in life-altering symptoms. Enough so that people can't hold a job. Become diabetic. That kind of life-altering. Breakthrough infections in vaccinated people result in long covid at about the same rate (but vaxxed get about 1/6 the infections of unvaxxed). We do not know enough about this disease to be careless.

All this talk of "Oh just get sick and let's get on with it," is obviously (to me) based on the assumption: "You get sick. I'll get on with it." You really really really do not get to make that choice for other people. Unless you want to be a bit of a Trumpian monster.

@Radyward tourists aren't going to get trapped in NZ with a border close. People have been leaving NZ all through the pandemic. As for effects on tourism, well even now lots of tourism businesses are doing ok. I drove through town yesterday and every single motel has no vacancies. This could be a good opportunity to reset tourism in NZ and reduce our attractiveness to budget travellers who don't want to pay for their camping, poo on roadsides and wash themselves and their dishes in pristine lakes.

@samsalmon why are you equating long COVID to post viral fatigue? The more research is done the more it looks like most long COVID is actually organ damage.

So just letting covid blow through a population HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MASS DISABLING EVENT. (Caps because I'm cross about commenters minimizing it.)

Well you can be cross all you like, but that doesn't change the fact that the only way you can stop it is via severe restrictions - lockdowns or closed borders. So how long are you prepared to do that for?

@quixote9

People asking where I am in NZ because I said "we haven't had lockdowns except for early in the pandemic." I'm in Northland.

We were one stage down in lockdown compared to AKL for a while, and then once the "traffic light" system took effect, we were at pretty much the same level.

What I meant was that it wasn't like the original level 4 lockdown we all had. The one where you couldn't get anything done except go grocery shopping and you couldn't visit with anyone not living in your house. I wasn't clear. Sorry. The reason this blithe "oh we're all going to get omicron and I just want to get on with my life" makes me cross is >>>>>>>>>>> because it does not work that way.

You don't get to decide when you're going to stop fighting the gorilla. Or the virus. You don't get to say "I'm done with winter. Besides, the snow is light and fluffy, so it's milder. I'm going out without my coat."

We do not know enough about covid to be careless about it. We know next to nothing about the likelihood of long covid after omicron or among the vaccinated. The indications are Not Good: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2#ref-CR2

Vaccination may reduce your chances of long covid by half. It may not reduce them at all. The data aren't there yet. Young people seem to get long covid at the same rate as the old. It doesn't matter whether the original infection was asymptomatic or mild.

So just letting covid blow through a population HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MASS DISABLING EVENT. (Caps because I'm cross about commenters minimizing it.) Remember, at the lower bound, about 7% of infections result in life-altering symptoms. Enough so that people can't hold a job. Become diabetic. That kind of life-altering. Breakthrough infections in vaccinated people result in long covid at about the same rate (but vaxxed get about 1/6 the infections of unvaxxed). We do not know enough about this disease to be careless.

All this talk of "Oh just get sick and let's get on with it," is obviously (to me) based on the assumption: "You get sick. I'll get on with it." You really really really do not get to make that choice for other people. Unless you want to be a bit of a Trumpian monster.

Auckland have had a proper lockdown, they had one when Delta got in. Groceries only and those testing positive were mandatorily quarantined, there were road blocks ffs, my nieces and nephews couldn’t go to school. Of course it was a lockdown. It was absolutely appalling that that had to happen because at that point so few people were vaccinated. Then we had all the crap on here about how team 5m had altruistically stood aside in the vaccine queue and let those in greater need go first. And now the whole country is on Red. No it’s not a lockdown. Yes you can go out to dinner. If you have a My Vaccine Passport. You’ve all been brainwashed and terrified into compliance. The woman is a megalomaniac. She doesn’t even answer to the press.

@quixote9 it will blow through the population, it’s inevitable and the majority will catch it at some point in 2022. My triple jabbed husband has had it twice

But the good news ( as the U.K. data shows and South Africa before that) is that if you are triple jabbed it is highly likely you’ll be fine.

@TheKeatingFive

So just letting covid blow through a population HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MASS DISABLING EVENT. (Caps because I'm cross about commenters minimizing it.)

Well you can be cross all you like, but that doesn't change the fact that the only way you can stop it is via severe restrictions - lockdowns or closed borders. So how long are you prepared to do that for?

Thanks to countries like the UK, we're not talking about stopping it. Reduce, however.

Mitigations

Plenty of East Asian countries have worn masks for decades with only positive impact on the economy.

Good ventilation - including HEPA filters. Stops the economy running? That would be a nope. Quite the opposite. Likewise vaccine passes.

Btw. Turn it round. Your (rather hyperbolic) statement. How many (Other) people would you like to see (severely) killed or disabled - so that you can pretend there's no new and evolving dangerous disease?

I'm not wasting my Saturday night with ableism, ageism, and racism (and a 'Let the bodies pile up' approach is asystemically racist policy). Squirrel is right. Not worth it.

I pity anyone on here or reading this who is unfortunate enough to become one of the newly disabled Long Covid sufferers. As you can see, you'll be fighting two battles. The sometimes debilitating chronic ill health and a cabal out to deny, dismiss, and downplay your very real struggles.

I only hope that there is future progress in research and treatment for the (many) people like this young man.

www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/long-covid-help-me-get-my-life-back

Oh and East Asia is more countries than just China. And, no, they're not all the same. Including re politics.

I'm not wasting my Saturday night with ableism, ageism, and racism (and a 'Let the bodies pile up' approach is asystemically racist policy). Squirrel is right. Not worth it.

😂 let's see how that works out.

[quote sashagabadon]@quixote9 it will blow through the population, it’s inevitable and the majority will catch it at some point in 2022. My triple jabbed husband has had it twice

But the good news ( as the U.K. data shows and South Africa before that) is that if you are triple jabbed it is highly likely you’ll be fine.[/quote]

Except that the majority of SA cases weren't even jabbed at all, let alone triple jabbed The rate currently stands at 27.9% 2 months after Omicron started there.

Oh and East Asia is more countries than just China. And, no, they're not all the same. Including re politics.

Yes let's talk about South Korea's data privacy laws and how the success of their track and trace simply couldn't be replicated in European countries because it's against the law.

Its not reducing it though it is controlling it - reduction implies that less people will get it. That isn't what mitigations achieve - mitigations control spread so that less people get it at any one time therefore preventing infrastructures such as health services being overwhelmed or causing issues due to isolations.

This is a valid approach BTW and one which should be followed because you need to ensure those who can be treated are treated in order to reduce serious illness and death. Also to give further time to investigate and come up with further treatments etc. We have some so far in 2 years already.

Any other approach that we can get zero covid or avoid getting it has long since gone due to far more countries that the UK!

Oh and what Asia is Russia - does that cover East Asia or West Asia?

I pity anyone on here or reading this who is unfortunate enough to become one of the newly disabled Long Covid sufferers. As you can see, you'll be fighting two battles. The sometimes debilitating chronic ill healthanda cabal out to deny, dismiss, and downplay your very real struggles

You missed the third one, people who can't tell the difference between you and someone who's got a bit of a cough 29 days after testing positive.

@quixote9 are you in strong disagreement with Westminster's approach then? Do you think the UK is going to face disability on a mass scale?

How much are the vaccines helping with long Covid?

I love that number of people @Tealightsandd @SquirrelG that are really invested in this thread and then suddenly strop off saying they are wasting their time as if their time is oh so important

Why and how would/should/could vaccines help with long covid, @MarshaBradyo?

Not after you’ve got it but now we’ve been vaccinated is the incidence falling?

Are there studies that show impact pre and post vaccination roll out

[quote Porcupineintherough]@samsalmon why are you equating long COVID to post viral fatigue? The more research is done the more it looks like most long COVID is actually organ damage.[/quote]
What I said was that post-viral syndromes are not unique to Covid and that the nature of Long Covid is still being worked out. I also said that there is no way we can say that there are ‘1m disabled ‘ with Long Covid in the UK, when that number includes everyone with lingering symptoms of any degree and assorted piss takers, as well as those with genuine issues. And I also said that the sooner we get clarity on Long Covid, the better. That’s so we can be sure of what we’re dealing with and target support.

@Tealightsandd - bit of a coincidence that that young man’s father had ME “so was able to give lots of advice”. Maybe he was susceptible genetically.

Agree that you can predict just who is going to claim to suffer from long covid. And I’m not saying post-viral syndrome or damage doesn’t exist: I have permanent organ damage from just such a thing. But when I read some people’s idea of long covid, eg a bit tired two weeks later or a lingering cough for a month - I think they are the usual malingerers or have never experienced flu. I also think people have been hyped up into believing that every minor niggle is now a Health Emergency.