Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

My point was also that people aren't taking about slowing spread. They're taking about reducing the rates of infection, which isn't something that can be done indefinitely. Fewer infections today doesn't mean fewer tomorrow - it means more still to come until our levels of immunity from vaccines and past exposure between them are sufficient to keep rates low

Yes, if you want "more time", then it needs infections at very low levels (7 day rates less than 1 in 1000 say) and R near to 1, having a few more weeks or even months doesn't make the difference.

It's a reasonable proposition to ask for more time, but you need to advocate measures which get there, not let's carry on with the interventions that have failed over the last 2 1/2 months to prevent infection.

So I think the balance of costs and benefits of trying to slow down spread weighs quite differently now.

I agree on this. The costs are huge. We haven’t focused on them in messaging as they wouldn’t help with compliance but this has always been a consideration and now the cost outweighs the benefit

Interesting discussion on where the case numbers really are:

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1492548295205527554

@Firefliess
@MarshaBradyo

Slowing the spread also means that if immunity wanes it won't happen for everyone at the same time. There will always be a pool of recently infected and highly immune people to keep the country running should another wave or variant hit.

containsnuts

This isn't really the case, since infection derived immunity is much more varied a duration than vaccine derived - the "dose" being much more varied. Waves are really mediated by increased transmission advantage due to seasonality rather than "waning time". If it was a real consideration, it would be much more important to spread out boosters and vaccines, but there's never a suggestion to do that.

But, even if it did contribute - spreading it out into four months (which is all current protections are achieving) would have little impact, spreading it out over a year would. What restrictions should be brought in to spread it out longer?

Waves are really mediated by increased transmission advantage due to seasonality rather than "waning time".

I'm not sure there has been any evidence that transmission advantage has anything to do with seasonality. The BA.2, which is currently on the increase here has a significantly higher transmission rate than the BA.1. Nothing to do with seasonality, entirely to do with the make up of the variant.

Yes lonely you're right, but the only scenario where "waning at the same time" is relevant is against a resurgence of a closely related virus not a new one, new ones obviously are not protected by past infection.

If there's a new variant which defeats existing immunity then it's irrelevant if people today were infected in 1 month of 4 months, the immunity is invaded.

So the only situation where waning immunity is relevant is if the same or very similar variant arrives such that waning immunity is relevant, and that is where, as with all other respiratory viruses, it won't be that everyone has waned at the same time, it will be enough people have waned and the conditions are such that R swings above 1 to trigger the wave (seasonality, even if it's just more people being indoors) Simply individuals waning is not enough to trigger a wave as there would not be enough candidates.

Delaying infection can have benefits though as understanding of the virus improves with time along with vaccines and treatment options. Hopefully in the future they'll understand more about how to prevent the organ damage and other long term consequences.

That's true, but you could make that case until medical science has stopped Covid from being any risk even to the most extremely clinically vulnerable, which would be many, many years, and most probably decades away, if ever.

I think you need an objective otherwise you could severely bankrupt pretty much everyone

So - we will spend an absolute fortune until healthcare won’t be overwhelmed then try to recoup and grow looks different to we’ll keep spending this until medical science makes it safe for everyone

The latter is unrealistic

And tbh the former is going to hurt enough as it is

To pretty much everyone including dc, bar the few - as cost of living is impacted

@sirfredfredgeorge

Yes, if you want "more time", then it needs infections at very low levels (7 day rates less than 1 in 1000 say) and R near to 1, having a few more weeks or even months doesn't make the difference.

It's a reasonable proposition to ask for more time, but you need to advocate measures which get there, not let's carry on with the interventions that have failed over the last 2 1/2 months to prevent infection.

Those who advocate for restrictions tend not to have thought through what they're really trying to achieve (what would be acceptable in terms of infections/hospitalisations/deaths etc.), and how their restrictions would achieve it.... still less how they would keep numbers at that level once restrictions are eased.

It seems to come from a poorly thought through "we just need to do something" mentality. The fact there has never really been any kind of credible plan (or even really an in-credible one!) from those who advocate continuing restrictions shows how intellectually bankrupt the position is.

By those advocating restrictions, I don't mean anyone who has ever advocated them... I have over the past two years, and would have preferred the Government to wait until the current law expired in March to be confident that we were in a strong enough place.... I'm more meaning those who only ever seem to focus on arguing for restrictions to continue or be strengthened, and that those who think otherwise are either selfish and/or stupid.

health metrics summary in England - usual formats.

Starting with patients in hospital

admissions

ventilator beds

deaths within 28 days by date of death

NHS regions (england) per capita rates since 1st Jan

NHS regions patients in hospital and admissions - East of England

Midlands

London

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West

where seven day average for admits now above equivalent point in 2021; patients in hospital though still significantly less than the same point a year ago.