Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

The quote you put was. It’s typical of the emotive levers people use to make sure people stay fearful.

The idea ‘we may want it to - but it just doesn’t’

To a large majority life will feel very normal soon

On a more positive note these came up on my news feed

I think the best way of managing the new 'nornmal' is recognising the risks

I don't think Pagel is scaremongering although i normally do believe she is a bit negative.

There is a lot she says in that post that I totally agree with.

As a country we have been able to live a more normal life than many because we haven't been blind to the risks. Our surveillance programs have been some of the best in the world. This has enabled us to do 'OK' despite the very poor government we have.

I’m all for sequencing but it doesn’t need to be in community

Presumably we get a read on flu strain to create vaccine on reading more, this happens

Located around the world are influenza surveillance centers that annually monitor the most common strains, collecting data and identifying new and evolving strains. Once the information has been collected, the World Health Organization selects the three strains most likely to circulate during the following flu season. This decision is typically made in February, allowing the development of a new vaccine to begin around midsummer.

Most of Christina Pagel's thread sounds pretty sensible - and she's certainly moved on from advocating ever stronger restrictions and zero covid. I'm dubious about how feasible it is to have vastly improved Aircon everywhere we go. And also don't really see why - whether we do that or not - life won't feel pretty much normal. The main thing making it feel not quite normal to me is the fear of a compulsory isolation stint. Otherwise, you just need to make the mental adjustment to being in a world with higher than usual levels of flu around for the next year or two, and possibly another vaccine in the autumn. That doesn't sound too far off normal

I dont think it was scaremongering I just think she had an idealised version of how it should be. Ideas that in an ideal world wouldnt need to be implemented and things that in theory sound amazing.

But in practice are either not feasible/never going to be on the table or people just wont follow

The line the world pre 2020 doesn’t exist as much as we want it to etc is emotive gubbins to me. I’ll be glad to leave all that emotional rhetoric behind.

The main thing making it feel not quite normal to me is the fear of a compulsory isolation stint

Agreed. DD recently had covid at uni, and was completely overwhelmed by the experience. Her housemates wanted total confinement, effectively locking her in her room for 10 days, such was the fear of them catching it. In the end they allowed her to cook and eat after them all, meaning she didn't get breakfast until 10.30 or dinner until 9.00. One girl is still not talking to her for "breaking isolation rules". This in a uni environment with hundreds of Covid Pos students, many not adhering to isolation, and this same girl going to lectures, seminars and out and about. The harm it did to DD, far outweighed the benefit of locking her up, when it is so prevalent in that community anyway.

Sorry, that was a very personal rant, but I really felt for her.

On another, very anecdotal note. Literally all of DH's colleagues and also his wider associates have had Covid in the past week. All meetings cancelled. Never have there been so many Covid Pos. Not one of his colleagues took a PCR, or registered their LFT result. But they have all self isolated at home. This obviously distorts statistics, but I think it also shows that trust in people "to do the right thing" is not misplaced, and generally most people will now stay at home if they feel unwell.

@lonelyplanet

Great thread from Professor Pagel:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492042711771324416

"THREAD: I keep being asked when we can go "back to normal" or "like it was before". My personal thoughts:

We've added a new disease to our population, more infectious and more severe than flu.

The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't"

I find it interesting that some people really do have a sense of denial over this. Luckily the world isn't made up entirely of ostriches.

I definitely think that turning up to work with a cold, drinking lemsip and sneezing all over people is going to remain socially unacceptable for the foreseeable future. People have argued a lot throughout this pandemic about whether we should have fewer restrictions or more, always forgetting that the rules were only possible because most people supported them and followed them, and that in the absence of rules people would still have changed behaviour to avoid catching or spreading covid. So the rules matter a lot less than you might think, or model if you imagine they're all that dictates how people mix.

I find it interesting that some people really do have a sense of denial over this.

Denial over what exactly?

Of course Covid now exists. What will be gone is emotive messaging to get people to change behaviour and when that’s gone it really will feel like pre 20 to the majority of the population.

Of course those who benefitted from the behaviour change won’t like that.. but I welcome it absolutely.

I think we’ll revert faster than people can imagine atm

Think about constant media messaging re Covid / cases / deaths etc and how different it will feel when that stops.

I'm not sure about "The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't"

My grandparents would speak of The Great War and its effect on everyone's lives and also The Great Depression (and, of course, WW2, but that was more recent), but they didn't really talk about the Spanish Flu Epidemic much and, if asked, didn't make a great deal of it. Although it must have had a dramatic effect on people at the time, it doesn't seem to have 'changed the world' like the wars and the Depression did.

Marsha

Of course Covid now exists. What will be gone is emotive messaging to get people to change behaviour and when that’s gone it really will feel like pre 20 to the majority of the population.

Well, it's not going to feel the same to most CEV people and those who care about them, is it?

Or to those who have lost loved ones.

Good news on deaths from John Burn-Murdoch:
"adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line."

@JanglyBeads

Marsha

Of course Covid now exists. What will be gone is emotive messaging to get people to change behaviour and when that’s gone it really will feel like pre 20 to the majority of the population.

Well, it's not going to feel the same to most CEV people and those who care about them, is it?

That’s why I said majority.

For the majority of the population, I disagree with Pagel’s statement - it will feel like pre 20.

(Maybe some hybrid working will remain as a legacy but mostly because people want it.)

If you go back to Chris Whitty’s statement right after the beginning for the vast majority this will be a mild disease the huge impact of the pandemic has been due to controlling cases so the healthcare system wasn’t overwhelmed.

When this threat passes his statement will feel more real to the majority. Even lower severity as we now have vaccines and past infection immunity.

So so bored with arguing with covid minimisers whose business interests depend on people forgetting about covid.

Covid (and the possibility of further pandemics) is very much still out there.

There were nearly 3 million cases in the week up to 5th Feb (ONS stats today).

About 10% ish of schoolchildren are thought to have been infected in the last 2 week window they tested.

Since we aren't giving further boosters to the vulnerable - and I have seen arguments for and against that - there will be waning immunity in the months ahead.

I am very much hoping that we will get an improved roll out of antiviral treatments and that also further vaccines in development will come through and keep morbidity and mortality down.

It doesn't look like the end of any reasonable concerns about covid unfortunately.

The plans to ditch isolation asap and so forth look to have come out of political grandstanding rather than from health and science advisers, and that is usually very bad news as far as sensible decision-making is concerned.

About 10% ish of schoolchildren are thought to have been infected in the last 2 week window they tested.

I found the statistic interesting / quite shocking/ but I'm not surprised. Just desperately hoping that reinfections don't follow again too quickly:

twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1492154181385396227

"If you sum the % figures for the ONS daily modelled estimates since Dec 15th of the youngest age group and then divide by 10 (effectively assuming each infection would test positive for 10 days), you get to...

...exactly 50%.

So it's no surprise that numbers in this group are now falling, as the population yet to be infected is rapidly reducing. It's debatable whether we should regard it as a positive thing that numbers are falling when it's because such a high proportion have now been infected."

Fortnightly variant technical briefing out today:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

Mainly centred on BA.2 which continues to rise. It is highest in London (31%), South East (24%), East (23%).

The age distribution of reinfection data is also interesting, especially as it includes information on short interval reinfections.

Good news on deaths from John Burn-Murdoch:
"adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line

Except the IFR on flu is not by the same definition as covid deaths he's quoting which is the 28 day figure? Different things are being compared there.

We don't actually know the IFR of flu on the same definition (it could be contributing to many other deaths without being enough of a cause to appear on the death certificate)

Yougov poll on whether or not people are comfortable with isolation ending now.

twitter.com/yougov/status/1491425254572695553?s=21

Marsha, I meant to highlight that the feelings of "the majority" are not the most important thing here. The health, and indeed, right to life, of society's most vulnerable are of at least equal importance.

I think at the very least they should keep the testing for symptomatic people and maintain the ONS surveillance in it's current form. That's our early warning system so we can manage any problematic variant BEFORE it overwhelms. If we wait until ICUs are filling up again it'll be too late. Seems totally bonkers to me and almost designed to mean we'll end up with harsher measures at some point in the future. With NHS waiting lists set to grow until 2024, the system won't survive another wave of any kind. Quite concerned for future health care provision.

@sirfredfredgeorge

*Good news on deaths from John Burn-Murdoch: "adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line*

Except the IFR on flu is not by the same definition as covid deaths he's quoting which is the 28 day figure? Different things are being compared there.

We don't actually know the IFR of flu on the same definition (it could be contributing to many other deaths without being enough of a cause to appear on the death certificate)

Here's another view on this.