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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

996 replies

boys3 · 18/01/2022 22:17

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
411
Ohsofedupwiththis · 03/02/2022 07:00

[quote JanglyBeads]Interesting M Mina study on workers possibly returning to workplace on day 5...

TL:DR NOT a good idea, especially if they're boosted!

twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1488988413948829696?s=21[/quote]
I would hope the vast majority would be following the rules and testing! Although not convinced that will be the case.

I got a day 5 / day 6 negative so could leave isolation. The rest of the household didn't get a negative LFT until day 9 / 10.

sirfredfredgeorge · 03/02/2022 08:41

Interesting that "boosted" indicates infectious for longer - what's the mechanism?

Firefliess · 03/02/2022 09:01

@sirfredfredgeorge

Interesting that "boosted" indicates infectious for longer - what's the mechanism?
Having looked down the Twitter thread the suggestions seem to be either that it's just random noise because of small numbers in the study, or possibly because of selection bias - people who catch covid after being boosted have some health issues or less effective immune system, meaning they take longer to fight covid off.
sirfredfredgeorge · 03/02/2022 09:19

Are these not health care workers though? Harder to suggest that its serious health etc. in a group that is less representative of such than average?

containsnuts · 03/02/2022 10:28

[quote MarshaBradyo]On another thread Denmark leading in lifting restrictions

www.ndtv.com/world-news/denmark-coronavirus-coronavirus-in-denmark-covid-in-denmark-returning-to-life-as-we-knew-it-denmark-lifts-curbs-despite-omicron-2742496/amp/1[/quote]
Yeh, I saw that but then read:

"No one can know what will happen next December. But we promised the citizens of Denmark that we will only have restrictions if they are truly necessary and we'll lift them as soon as we can," Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke told CNN on Monday. "That's what's happening right now."

Good news for now but sounds like they'll just bring them back next winter.

MarshaBradyo · 03/02/2022 10:55

I doubt anyone can be completely certain at this point.

I read it as more of a we don’t know statement.

containsnuts · 03/02/2022 10:59

@MarshaBradyo

I doubt anyone can be completely certain at this point.

I read it as more of a we don’t know statement.

They said they didn't have much strain on health services just now so that's what's guiding the decision. Seems balanced. Will be followimg Denmark with interest.
Firefliess · 03/02/2022 11:50

How come Denmark are being described as first to lift restrictions? Haven't we already done so?

VikingOnTheFridge · 03/02/2022 12:19

@Firefliess

How come Denmark are being described as first to lift restrictions? Haven't we already done so?
We still have isolation.
sirfredfredgeorge · 03/02/2022 12:20

It's the mandatory isolation surely, that's the key measure that England still has.

treeflowercat · 03/02/2022 14:06

@containsnuts

Good news for now but sounds like they'll just bring them back next winter.

Surely they're just not ruling out the return of restrictions next winter... which it would be crazy to do at this point.

containsnuts · 03/02/2022 15:14

[quote treeflowercat]@containsnuts

Good news for now but sounds like they'll just bring them back next winter.

Surely they're just not ruling out the return of restrictions next winter... which it would be crazy to do at this point.[/quote]
Sounds sensible. We all know how well England's "irreversible roadmap" went!

MarshaBradyo · 03/02/2022 15:46

I remember Patrick Vallance getting annoyed - in his subdued way - that the media / or people hadn’t picked up on unless there is a new variant part with that phrase.

Makes sense to adapt and not get to stuck

Same as reassessing in light of omicron being mild after all

Regulus · 03/02/2022 16:01

@sirfredfredgeorge

Interesting that "boosted" indicates infectious for longer - what's the mechanism?
So… how to interpret these findings Firstly - they show that vaccines and boosters are working! & No, they do NOT mean that boosters are causing people to be more infectious. The data implies that people w strong immunity are becoming symptomatic FAST after exposure

10/ And bc of this, boosted ppl may be starting their isolation “clock” earlier in the infection But since vax/boosting doesn’t alter virus trajectory much, it means 5 days into the clock, you may may be at peak infectiousness, not yet on downslope.

That's in the thread, although I've already seen that graph on an antivax support site.

Firefliess · 03/02/2022 16:59

I saw that in the thread too @Regulus. But it makes no sense to me - Firstly, why would boosted people show signs of infection quicker? Surely protection from the booster would slow things down, not speed them up? But secondly, if they did "start their clock" earlier, that ought to mean they clear the infection earlier, not later.

I suspect it is either small numbers in the study, or else the boosted people who caught it anyway having poorer immune systems for whatever reason.

containsnuts · 03/02/2022 17:06

The only thing re Denmark...how are they going to pick-up new variants? With cases going stratospheric, surely the chance of mutation is higher than ever? Seems strange that they are so confident this won't be an issue despite identifing a highly transmissible new variant just a few weeks ago.

treeflowercat · 03/02/2022 18:13

@containsnuts

The only thing re Denmark...how are they going to pick-up new variants? With cases going stratospheric, surely the chance of mutation is higher than ever? Seems strange that they are so confident this won't be an issue despite identifing a highly transmissible new variant just a few weeks ago.
Denmark accounts for less than 2% of confirmed cases worldwide. Its population is only 5 million or so. Whereas it probably picks up 50% or so of actual infections, the detection rate in most of the rest of the world is far, far lower. Once that's factored in, Denmark probably accounts for somewhere between 0.1 and 0.5% of global cases. As such, it's still unlikely that's new variant of concern will be spawned there...

Also, the laws of physics apply to infectious viruses too. What "goes up must come down". It won't take long to burn through its population at the rate it's been spreading. Even if we pessimistically think people can be re-infected with the same variant after three months - and it's probably more like 6-12 months in most cases, 'herd immunity' will prevent infections from being at current levels for very long at all.

treeflowercat · 03/02/2022 18:26

Regarding Denmark... It's currently averaging 40k cases per day having levelled off over the past week. If we assume 50% detection rate, we that's 560,000 infections last week, or 10% of the population.... so relaxing all rules is unlikely to make that much of a difference. If, hypothetically, rates doubled again, over the coming week as a result (unlikely given the population that has been infected over the past 6 weeks or so), then we'd necessarily be seeing some very sharp falls very soon thereafter....

The position in Denmark means that the lifting of all restrictions cannot feasibly lead to much, if any, further increase in infection rates. Even without the hypothetical doubling I referred to above, I'd be astonished if Denmark's rates weren't falling shortly, either steadily or sharply, despite all restrictions lifted.

sirfredfredgeorge · 03/02/2022 18:29

I saw that in the thread too @Regulus. But it makes no sense to me - Firstly, why would boosted people show signs of infection quicker? Surely protection from the booster would slow things down, not speed them up? But secondly, if they did "start their clock" earlier, that ought to mean they clear the infection earlier, not later

I think the thinking is "symptoms are response to infection from the body, therefore robust response, earlier symptoms, therefore earlier testing meaning earlier discovery, but regardless of that initial response it's still 7 days to ditch the virus." so because it was detected on day 1 rather than day 3 without the vaccine you get the leaving early problem.

I too struggle with this as a theory, why would an earlier, stronger immune response not shorten the time of infection.

It does fit with the antigenic sin theory (strong immune response but slightly off the mark so takes longer) but that's not a well supported theory. This is where I'd like more info compared to the "maybe the boosted were weaker" option, as it very much informs further boosters or not.

The good news of course is that any of the vaccines, boosted or not, are so far still very successful in preventing serious illness of the immune system overload method that harmed most.

Sundayvibes · 03/02/2022 18:54

What are the hospital admissions stats?
How many are being treated for covid?
How many are being treated for other things but have happened to test positive for covid?

Firefliess · 03/02/2022 22:47

@Sundayvibes

What are the hospital admissions stats? How many are being treated for covid? How many are being treated for other things but have happened to test positive for covid?
Have a look at the various links on the OP. In short, admissions falling slowly. ICU numbers falling more steeply. Proportion of admissions "of" rather than "incedendallty with" covid historically around 70-80% but fallen since Omicron to more like half.
Firefliess · 03/02/2022 22:53

Re Denmark and likely long term scenarios - we really don't have much evidence that people are likely to get infected regularly with the same strain. Omicron has only been around since December - the 10% of cases that are reinfections are (by definition) earlier than December and so Delta or earlier threads. Anecdotally I've heard quite a lot about people infected before Christmas catching covid again, but they were likely Delta original infections - I've not heard of anyone catching Omicron twice, and think it's probably quite unlikely - the reason it reinfects is because it's different from previous strains so the immune response isn't so quick. But it's not different to itself. So no reason to expect case rates to remain high forevermore, unless we get new strains.

lonelyplanet · 04/02/2022 09:32

I've not heard of anyone catching Omicron twice, and think it's probably quite unlikely
It is much to early to tell. Most people have only had in the last few weeks. I do hope you are right though; the grim situation in schools can't continue like this.

alreadytaken · 04/02/2022 18:21

Ask yourselves why people would delay getting a booster. Most obvious explanation is that they had covid, did anyone look at whether they are comparing 2 jabs plus covid before this infection to 3 jabs? Other major reasons are likely to be age and/or state of pregnancy. All these may affect how fast you throw off infection.