Are cases really dropping?

[PrpleRain]

I understand that once you test positive on lateral flow you need to start self isolation and no pcr is required. You should report the result to nhs but how many people will bother doing that? I feel like everyone around me had covid but then I read that the cases are dropping and it’s just hard to believe..

LFT aren’t counted in the reported numbers

Some won’t report the LFT either as there’s no benefit to doing so.

Well if everyone has caught it then it will be running out if people to infect

Well yes, if you can't get LFT's - there are none to be had around here (not that I care but others seem to) - and you don't have to PCR, the cases will drop won't they?

It's all in the plan..(and I for one am glad).

Loads of people aren’t going to bother reporting their result. Not to mention the cases which will never be known about because people don’t have the lfts available to test with. Even if they have the testing kits, lots of people won’t be testing regularly anyway, if they don’t have symptoms. There will be many cases below the radar, but maybe that’s a necessary step in ‘normalising’ the virus?

Lfts are counted in the numbers - they are subsequently removed if a follow up pcr is linked to the same account. It's why the advice to report a positive lft has been strengthened given the removal off confirmatory pcrs for asymptomatic cases.

Cases in reality arent deopping.
More people not bothering to test.
Reinfections still not counted in numbers and many many more people testing positive again.
I think many people who do lft and isolate wont register it but hopefullt will isolate.

Hospitalisations and deaths will be harder to hide through.

Hospitalisations and deaths will be harder to hide through

Yes. Thankfully they are falling too!

@blubells

I wish they were but they arent. I hope they do but the data isnt seeing a fall yet

I think it appears positive cases are "falling" because its been almost impossible to get hold of any LFTs since before Xmas and so people haven't been testing themselves unless they have spare tests at home! It's taken me since 22nd December to get a box of tests sent via post (local chemists etc have either not received deliveries over christmas break or delivered tests fly straight out the door as soon as they arrive).

The number of hospital admissions appears to have plateaued at just above 2,200 a day in the UK, about half last winter's peak.

London, where Omicron took off quickly, started seeing a drop first. There is now a clear downward trend in admissions.

@Covidworries

Cases in reality arent deopping. More people not bothering to test. Reinfections still not counted in numbers and many many more people testing positive again. I think many people who do lft and isolate wont register it but hopefullt will isolate.

Hospitalisations and deaths will be harder to hide through.

The real question is where cases really going up before Christmas? Or were people just testing more because they had to to get into the pub/visit granny for Christmas? Despite having a good old Google a few times, I found it difficult to get any data about how figures compared to the number of tests done in December.

The Zoe app currently says 180,000 a day.

Given the vast numbers of unvaccinated people around the world there is ample scope for another variant of concern to emerge and if one does emerge we may find the disease cannot be treated as endemic and all bets will be off.

With the new rules in England to isolate for an LFT+ with no PCR to confirm of course numbers will drop. If you have to work to get paid why would you?

No they aren't dropping. Every region in the world other than Africa has an increase in cases - 15m new cases in a week according to the WHO and 43,000 deaths.

A lot of the people I know that are positive at the moment are on there second confirmed case. They won't count in the official figures.

@Grantanow

Given the vast numbers of unvaccinated people around the world there is ample scope for another variant of concern to emerge and if one does emerge we may find the disease cannot be treated as endemic and all bets will be off.

How will vaccination stop a variant?

No they aren't dropping. Every region in the world other than Africa has an increase in cases

I misunderstood- I thought the question was about UK cases.

19,828 = UK hospitalizations on 10 Jan. This is now at the level of highest hospitalizations of 1st wave. Why are politicians telling us these rates are dropping?

For the past month, very difficult to get hold of LFTs, so of course +ve test numbers are decreased!

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

The charts I'm seeing (BBC) suggest that the number of hospital admissions appears to have plateaued at just above 2,200 a day in the UK, about half last winter's peak.

And falling in London.

[quote blackrosewater]19,828 = UK hospitalizations on 10 Jan. This is now at the level of highest hospitalizations of 1st wave. Why are politicians telling us these rates are dropping?

For the past month, very difficult to get hold of LFTs, so of course +ve test numbers are decreased!

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare[/quote]
You are not comparing like for like, during the first wave only the very sickest were taken into hospital. If people were taken in then at the level they are now the number would have been a lot higher. You only need to look at the number in mechanical ventilation beds to see the difference.

The other issue is that the numbers testing is still high, there hasn't been a large fall off in that number to account for the fall in positive cases. I do genuinely think we are starting to see a fall.

The third reason I think it is genuinely falling is the maps, you can track how it has moved up the country and is falling in the south now

Agreed. Hospital admission figures are quite one dimensional. Anecdotally, Covid patients are less sick upon hospital admission now than they were a year or so ago; and the broader data shows that the average Covid-related hospital stay is much shorter than it was a year ago. People being admitted to hospital as a precaution for overnight observation, or only needing an oxygen mask for couple of days before being fit enough to be discharged, rather than weeks of invasive treatment or ventilation, is really excellent news: but if the data being conveyed is only the raw figure of how many people were admitted to hospital today and how many people are in hospital today, that critical distinction is lost.

@BluebellsGreenbells

LFT aren’t counted in the reported numbers

Some won’t report the LFT either as there’s no benefit to doing so.

LFT aren't counted in the reported numbers

I'm pretty sure they are - see the link below. About 1.6m tests were reported yesterday. The PCR testing capacity is about half that and the second graph suggests the actual number of lab tests done was less than the capacity, maybe around 700k. So that leaves 900k other tests reported, which presumably are mostly LFTs.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

[quote Covidworries]@blubells

I wish they were but they arent. I hope they do but the data isnt seeing a fall yet[/quote]
Actually the graphs on the .gov data page is now starting to see the early signs of having reached the same peak that positive tests hit around a week ago. Sadly deaths within 28 days are still increasing, but with any luck they should peak within a week to 10 days.

What looks even more positive is that those in hospital do not appear to be as sick as in previous waves and there's no denying that. With 793 in mechanical ventilation (in the UK total) which is the lowest its been since 15th October, well before we saw omicron hit and numbers above 100000/day

Well hospitalisations have stabilised and in London starting to drop so yes cases in London are dropping certainly. But then I notice depending on your persuasion people tend to believe an increase in cases is because of an increase in testing or a decrease because of a decrease in testing in reality most of the time though increases prove to be increases abs decreases decreases! See the rise last autumn (which was def just sn increase in testing until it wasn’t, and the decrease this July which was def just because kids were not testing at school until you know it wasn’t!! As too most notable examples of this phenomenon).

Actual cases are never the case number of course but the trend up or down does tend to be real looking at the last two years.