Are cases really dropping?

[PrpleRain]

I understand that once you test positive on lateral flow you need to start self isolation and no pcr is required. You should report the result to nhs but how many people will bother doing that? I feel like everyone around me had covid but then I read that the cases are dropping and it’s just hard to believe..

It is very clear with Scotland and PCRs though

And testing isnt dropping that much either.

It can both be cases dropping and less testing effecting it rather than one or the other. Which is more realistic

@Wilma55

Positive results down 23% in last 7 days, tests conducted only down 3% in last 7 days

This seems pretty clear it’s not a drop in testing

4.3 million cases estimated by ONS in the week up to 6th Jan.

I am so so grateful for their work & reports. I certainly hope we don't stop nearing about case numbers any time soon! as we are right in the middle of a large wave.

We will only see the true effects of the return to school in the weeks ahead.

@herecomesthsun

4.3 million cases estimated by ONS in the week up to 6th Jan.

I am so so grateful for their work & reports. I certainly hope we don't stop nearing about case numbers any time soon! as we are right in the middle of a large wave.

We will only see the true effects of the return to school in the weeks ahead.

If you want to find the numbers it's easy enough to do so. But I can't wait until they are no longer published in the MSM everyday. Mind it does seem that the MSM is only interested when the numbers are "record breaking", not so much when they are falling as rapidly as they rose.

I think if you want to avoid them, it is easy to do that as well.

Meanwhile, we are still in the middle of this wave, and omicron isn't going anywhere any time soon. It is still of interest to quite a lot of people.

@herecomesthsun

4.3 million cases estimated by ONS in the week up to 6th Jan.

I am so so grateful for their work & reports. I certainly hope we don't stop nearing about case numbers any time soon! as we are right in the middle of a large wave.

We will only see the true effects of the return to school in the weeks ahead.

We should report everything else daily as well.

Deaths from heart attacks
Deaths from sepsis
Deaths from road accidents
Deaths from cancer
Deaths from suicide
Deaths from drug overdose

If we're really concerned by how many people are dying, why just covid..

Maybe we should announce how many people get a positive result for cancer every day?

Haven't RTFT so some of these points may have already been made.

As far as I know, they still aren't including reinfection figures in the data in England, so considering the fact that recent Delta infection isn't likely to give any/much protection against Omicron, a lot of reinfections will be happening but not counted.

Also I think I remember indie sage saying it's always pretty suspect when all age groups drop at the same time, which is what is happening at the moment. The graphs look identical for all age groups which is highly unlikely to be happening in reality without there being something else in play (lack of access to testing, for example)

Does anyone know why they don't include reinfections?

@Nidan2Sandan

All of that stuff is reported in its due place.

I guess there has been more general interest in covid because it has been topical, what with being a new and very infectious pathogen, and affecting people's lives a lot, with the lockdowns etc.

@nidan2sandan

Firstly the figures are generally anylysed yo look at year on year trends. When big rtc happen it makes the news, lots of rtc on a stretch of road means that warning signage is added to the road to increase awreness and reduce accidents.

If there were no heart attacks but suddenly people started dying of heart attqcks in great numbers then i expect that would also be news worthy.
As covid increases the risk of having a heart attack and with the current delay in recieving hospital care i expect the average death from heart attack os also rising.

Preventable deaths should be prevented what ever the cause. As covid is a contageous virus posting details of cases, hospitalisation and deaths should be a way to raise awareness and change behaviour to reduce spread but as many people clearly arent phased by 1000 odd extra preventable deaths in last 3 days it isnt having the desired impact.
In areas of high rtc warning signs it would be like people speading up and closing their eyes everytime they see the sign

I'm not sure it's dropping, though pleased to see numbers in hospitals in some parts of the country seem to be.

I think it's ridiculous to not count reinfections . Most people I know who have had it recently have had it a second time. I don't see the point in the stats if they are going to miss out something that obvious.

"Preventable deaths should be prevented what ever the cause."

By whom? By what means? Using how much force/co-ercion/regulation? At what cost to society? At what cost to the individual?

@amicissimma

Well mitigations would be a start. How often are we reading on here about people not bothing to test with symptoms now?

Its all very good saying you dont want to try and prevent preventable deaths. I assume you dont think anyone you know is at risk of dying, otherwise you may feel as i do that trying to prevent deaths that are preventable is worthwhile.

I dont know the cost of puttingnsigns up on roads warning of risky area for rtc and i dont know how many rtc it prevents or how many of those rtc would have be minor and not resulted in serious injury or death.
But i assume that the benefit outweighs the cost/negative side.

We have public health messaging for all sorts of things. Risk of smoking is on the packaging too. These messages have cost implications, do they reduce the numbers of people smoking/drinking etc.

Are you thinkin we should abandon all ways we try and prevent preventable deaths after all we all goingnto die one day what does it matter if its 10/20/30/40/50 years earlier ?

Preventable deaths should be prevented what ever the cause.

But at what cost?

In theory we could try to prevent every death but that would require huge sacrifices/costs that most people wouldn't be prepared for.

@blubells

Ok then lets abolish seatbelts and speed limits too. Drink driving most people dont cause acidents innfact its very rare and not being able to drink and drive, reduces income for the pubs and resturants, and lowers enjoyment. Most people out at night are older anyway so could die at anytime so no problem if the get hit by a drunk driver

Non of these examples involve preventing people have their own mum over to have a cup of tea on the sofa…but yeah sure drive carefully signs versus keep everyone away from everyone they love and care about…same thing..keep telling yourself that🤣😂!

Let me guess it’s nothing we all just need to stay the find fuck at home right?!..the fact there are people who don’t get lockdown never was and never could have been permanent It’s amazing after two years it really is!!

But seatbelts are a very easy/cheap preventative measure so most people are accepting their use.

Covid restrictions have been much more costly in terms of the sacrifices they require, so many people object.

You need to look at the costs and benefits of any measures.

Not about lockdown being permanent...
People are posting they arent testing for symptoms, wont do lft, knowing they are positive but refusing to isolate.
Camt be arsed anymore etc.

Not saying dony see your mum, not saying stay at home here. Discussing that cases are likely not dropping in reality and that people will die that were preventable bith from covid and from oyher causes because they cant get treatment.
You can see you mum, hopefully you would postpone if you had covid through and nit give it to your mum on purpose

Seatbelts are easy now because we are use to using them. They werent so easy when cars didnt have then as standard and you needed to get them fitted. It wasnt as easy getting children or adults to remember or want to use them when they first needed to be used.

Cloth masks are 'easy' but people still complain (and yhise eho cany wear yhem are exempt anyway - lits of children struggle withbsensory issues over searbelts, school uniform and all manor of things but there is bo exemption btw, but no one is demanding those things are gotten rid of).

Not smoking in doors is 'easy' but there were lots of complaints and anti that rule for a while too.

Cases are dropping yes 1.5 million are testing but quite frankly we either live with covid and have deaths or live in lockdown and don’t that is the reality.

You can pick one but to prevent these “avoidable deaths” is to say to people give up friends and family permanently because the only time in the last two years we have had low (by your standard) deaths is when we have done that.

The problem now is that lots of people including many very vulnerable to death (including my mother!) say no not worth it! But yeah we could achieve the low death rates we had without full lockdown with a more infectious variant if people just tested a bit more sure yes that will do it!!

Ive not said give up your family and friends...
I would prefer more people followed the 3 x week lfy, pcr for symptoms of varients and to isolate as required if positive. Mask wearing indoors, distance in public where feasible. A few mitigations we have and if people all did there would likely be some reduction in cases which would hopeful keep some form of hospital service running so that any need covid or non covid can get the care they need.

It may not be enough.... those ignoring the rumes may not cause so much spread that we topple over to not being able to give medical care where needed..... but id rather do what little i can while i can than say sod it and go out and about while positive.

If we can live reasonably full lives while using seatbelts, non smoking areas and not drive drunk im pretty sure we can live reasonably full lives while testing, isolatingnwhile positive and using masks and social distancing where possible

I would assume the lower reported numbers are because a positive LFT doesn’t need to be followed up with a PCR anymore if you’re symptom free. How many of those are actually being logged?
I don’t believe there’s a true sharp drop in cases that conveniently aligns with the new “no PCR needed” rule! It’s still very much here, it’s just no longer being recorded.

@Emmelina

I would assume the lower reported numbers are because a positive LFT doesn’t need to be followed up with a PCR anymore if you’re symptom free. How many of those are actually being logged? I don’t believe there’s a true sharp drop in cases that conveniently aligns with the new “no PCR needed” rule! It’s still very much here, it’s just no longer being recorded.

This doesn’t match London boroughs though which started dropping before it was introduced

Preventable deaths should be prevented what ever the cause

Sorry but you're deluded, don't care what you say but deaths are never prevented only delayed. And I hope and pray that my death is not delayed at any cost. What a miserable existence it would be, never doing anything but living in a sterile bubble in case I caught something that could kill me. Never walking out of my door in case I got run over (which could be prevented by banning all cars, vans, etc. Or by banning people from stepping out of their door). Never doing DIY, people die from that you know, ban all DIY and you'll prevent yet more deaths. Never having another alcoholic drink, cos alcohol can kill too you know. Oh and when my body tires out being attached to life support to keep it going, no matter how poor my quality of life is.

Just think what preventing any "preventable" death would actually cost in terms of both money and human misery.

And on the flip side, what about the people who have died as direct consequence of the measures that would save that life?? I know of someone who killed themselves as a direct consequence of the second lockdown. That could have been prevented by us not having the lockdown. But of course that wasn't covid so that doesn't matter to you, does it?