Are cases really dropping?

[PrpleRain]

I understand that once you test positive on lateral flow you need to start self isolation and no pcr is required. You should report the result to nhs but how many people will bother doing that? I feel like everyone around me had covid but then I read that the cases are dropping and it’s just hard to believe..

“ id rather do what little i can while i can than say sod it and go out and about while positive. ”

There isn’t the evidence to say that this is what people are doing. The vast majority of transmission has always taken place within the rules. You can argue about bringing in more restrictions on that basis of course.

I also don’t understand the mental gymnastics around “only increases are real, decreases are an illusion”. We have a lot of data, far more than many countries do. Generally, the increases have been increases and the decreases have been decreases. Generally, it has been found that compliance with testing etc has been fairly high. People are doing what they can, for the most part.

Its not deluded to want to prevent preventable deaths. And i didnt say at any cost. If you actually read my comments you would see i was talking about a variety of deaths not just covid ones. And more people die of all manor of things when the health system can not cope.
Puttingnprevemtions in place to try and prevent preventable deaths isnt not walking out your front door in case you get run over. Its making sure while you walk out your front door there are street lights if its dark where possible, thet the vehicals on the road have rules to ensure they are road safe, that the driver has passed a test and is driving not umder the influence. If the car is not road worthy or the driver is drunk there are laws in place to deal with this.
Accidents will still happen as you cant avoid everything but tryingnto prevent isnt a crime. Why would you want to remove every precaution which means going for walk is now far more likely to end up with you getting knocked down by a vehical?

Preventing suicide would be helped by having adequate mental health services but by your logic that should be scraped as sucides cant be prevented only delayed.

We should trry to prevent preventable deaths doesnt mean stopping all deaths forever it means the children and adults who died of covid or any other reason which wouldnt have died in normal circumstances should be viewed as tragic.

Nit being able to be with loved ones in their last weeks is also tragic this is true if death was preventable or due to happen so yes covid has been shit. Its been shit for those families where deaths would have happened regardless, its been shit where the deaths were only due to covid, and its been shit for deaths resulting indirectly to covid ie sucide or delayed treatment

I don’t see many people refusing to test or isolating with tests or walking around with positives

The 3 main Covid symptoms still need a PCR and the LFT is because I think it is seen that it is unlikely it will be a false positive

1.5 million tests were yesterday still high (not the highest) and yesterday was the first day Scottish data didn’t include LFT

I think the move from PCR is as much about capacity
The issue I guess is how many people is it missing who don’t have one of the main 3 symptoms (which haven’t changed) and are getting negative LFTs

I don’t see many people refusing to test or isolating with tests or walking around with positives

So you don’t work in a school then?

I don’t see many people refusing to test or isolating with tests or walking around with positives

How would you know?

@bluebellsgreenbells

Alot of posts on facebook and on mumsnets of people saying they wont test as cant be bothered ir as they want the numbers to come down or they dont want to have to stay in.
Others saying about relatives goingnabout as nirmal despite knowing they are positive

There has been a proportion of people not following guidance all along. It hasn’t stopped the numbers going down, and it hasn’t been the reason for the numbers going up. The vast majority have done what they have been asked to do (the govt were even surprised by this).

I work across a number of healthcare and education settings. Most people are following the rules as best they can (or as best they understand, which is a different matter, not their fault the rules can be baffling, illogical, and frequently changing)

I was saying actually I dont see it on Mumsnet @Covidworries and @BluebellsGreenbells and neither do I see it in my area where I live at all.

But if it is true what good are restrictions going to do. Because if a proportion of people have given up doing what they should (and the testing rules are clear that it is LFT, log LFT track and trace contact and PCR for 3 main symptoms) they are hardly likely to follow further restrictions.

Covidworries - you mention street lighting - well actually that is something that has gone in some areas and is a real danger

@Quartz2208 you don't have to go back that far for this one.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4446914-So-annoyed-at-my-parents

@Northsoutheastwest76 nowhere is that a case of someone unwilling to test and then not isolating - in fact he was testing negative and then positive.

That thread is about not saying about exposure

I think possibly I have seen one or two but that was happening before the testing change anyway and cases dropping

Most people will still report positive LFT as employers may require evidence for them to be absent from work. Or they might need to evidence that they had covid for somr other purposd eg travel

I’m not sure they are dropping as much as they seem statistically. If I test positive on a flow test now I won’t be getting a PCR as don’t want the hassle. I will just isolate until I feel better

Does anyone really think that cases aren't really dropping??? And that's with the back to school factor now being played out and only a 10% drop in tests. It's pretty obvious we're now over the peak. And hospitalisations have at the least plateaued, with the first sign of a drop. We can expect to see deaths follow in the next week (although there will most likely still be what some will say is a large number, its winter and lots of elderly succumb to respiratory infections in the winter, more so than in the summer).

Forgot the screenshot

I think cases are really dropping.

Deaths however are not dropping as yet, and there are still a large number of people in hospital.

I also think there is potential for cases to rebound in schools however; so it isn't a completely cut and dried resolution to the situation.

As I said it can be both cases are dropping and a drop in tests.

Cases are down 29% to tests down 9%.

We never got all the tests

Just to point out there will always be some drop in testing linked to a drop In cases because a lot of people test because they think they have covid (as have symptoms) if there are really less cases then less people will have symptoms so there wlll be a fall in testing.

But even so 1.4 million tests yesterday still puts the figure at a historic high and other that the stories of “my uncle cousins neighbour didn’t test so no one is”… no one on this thread has been able to provide hard evidence at significantly less testing taking place on a population level (which there would a need to be wide scale non testing to impact figures)

To also say I think cases are going down not that covid is over! there will be another surge at some point when those in favour of more lockdowns can call for one! I just think you have missed the boat for this particular wave!!

Not calling for a lockdown, just not convinced the cases line will continue to head only downwards over the weeks & months ahead.

I cant imagine it will @herecomesthsun I assume just like Delta when we bobbed around between the 25 to 50k cases a day mark Omicron will find that point for as long as we continue to measure it.

I guess it whether it will be the same as Delta, 50 to 75, 75 to 100 or 100k+ or an even wider range

The drop in testing might also be explained by this from Tim Spector's Twitter. Levels of other respiratory infections have dropped meaning less people have the type of symptoms that lead to a covid test.

It does seem odd that cases drop the very time that the message is out that ours are required.

@firef1y

Does anyone really think that cases aren't really dropping??? And that's with the back to school factor now being played out and only a 10% drop in tests. It's pretty obvious we're now over the peak. And hospitalisations have at the least plateaued, with the first sign of a drop. We can expect to see deaths follow in the next week (although there will most likely still be what some will say is a large number, its winter and lots of elderly succumb to respiratory infections in the winter, more so than in the summer).

Schools have only had their first full week back so I would expect the “back to school effect” to kick in next week. Assuming people bother to report positive lfts

there will be another surge at some point when those in favour of more lockdowns can call for one

Why do you think this? I just want realistic reporting. We don’t have to lockdown, just have realistic public health measures.

I agree they will head up and down in waves over 2022 as they have done over the last two years, I just think we are on a downward wave now..and think we will see a reduction in deaths in about two weeks (allowing for the lag you usually see with these things). Rather like I said the July 2021 reduction was real and people said it was just a lack of testing, this is real but no I don’t think it will stay that way forever (it didn’t in July 2021 either!)