Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@amicissimma

"Remember also, the number of people working in the public sector, health, education, social services etc is enormous. If there are a lot of people in these areas on mumsnet - it is in fact representative of wider society, in that."

A quick Google tells me that, in June 2020, 16.7% of people employed in the UK worked in the public sector. Do you think that is fairly well represented by Mumsnet?

Hard to tell isn't it? But that is a lot of people.

Probably a lot of graduates on here don't you think, which ever way that would push it.

Ok, I don't think that looking at the comments section in the DM is in any way a reasonable assessment of the opinions of the wider British public

Ok I’ve reiterated a fair few times it’s a self selecting section making comments

Anything that does this does not represent entire public (including YouGov)

But it does show that as a collection of people online where Mn generally sits.

I looked at it because a pp said Mn is making you think something is there that is not, clearly compared to other sites it is not doing this, it’s more likely doing the opposite and minimising some more extreme views the public hold.

I don’t even read the DM and had forgotten how strong comments can be, and how mild Mn is.

Firefliess I perhaps didn't quite very well.

My point was that we have nearly 210k reported with a specimen date of 29/12 - that will not be a final figure so will be greater than 210k.

Quote bloody autocorrect

[quote amicissimma]@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas, as I said, my figures are from my notes. Being a nerd, every day I note down the figures from the gov dashboard on that day. I can make no argument about why those figures may, or may not differ from some screenshot a random has taken of another site which may, or may not, be updated as more data come in.

I think that my figures thus provide a direct comparison of those reported on that day. Which may, or may not, be useful. I find them interesting, but you don't have to.[/quote]
Ok, Thank you. I see what you mean.

I'll be keeping an eye on this years numbers to see if they are added to.

From the BBC Thousands needed hospital treatment after lockdown DIY
...but also, eight people over the age of 90 who needed hospital treatment after falling from playground equipment I hope I can go on the swings when I'm 90
and One 90-year-old woman was admitted to hospital after being bitten or struck by a crocodile or alligator Ouch.

One 90-year-old woman was admitted to hospital after being bitten or struck by a crocodile or alligator

For the data thread, I feel the coding of the dataset could use some improvement, surely bite and struck should be different codes, it's important to know for mitigations (could this all be solved with a face mask your crocodile or alligator?)

And of course it's probably right to distinguish between crocodile and alligator anyway to avoid stigmatising the innocent animal if all the cases are coming from one. I appreciate though that they may not always be aware if it was a crocodile or alligator so it could be that there is coding for that but it wasn't possible to be used at this time and we should just be pleased it wasn't coded as "unknown animal"

On a slightly more sobering note (I am prepared for this to be pulled apart)

twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1477685782752153600

sirfred how about changing it to crocagator?
Either way, she must have been pretty close to be injured unless it was only a baby one and it nipped her finger do you need a tetanus jab for that?

Piggy I am not trying to pull it apart but I would like to know more.

What were winter admissions for that age group like in 2019?

What were winter admissions for thar age group in 2020?

How much of it is as a result of Covid and how much of it would have happened with any upper respitory infection they may catch?

We have many kids who are 2 now catching their 1st bugs so I am not sure this is really unexpected - not Covid per se, but paediatric admissions.

I don't know those stats but it does say 3x increase form pre Omicron.

I was hoping someone would know those stats. A quick look at a few other sources suggests it is a lot higher than normal, even for winter. I thought other RSVs were not really being seen atm. Obviously the figures need breaking down more but it does mirror reports out of eg NYC.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Has bed data, the bed data is strangely specific to "adult" care or MV, so there's no specific way of seeing children's beds, however there are a few children's specific hospitals, and they've all had covid positive patients over the hear.

My Hypothesis, if the higher children's admissions is from primary covid and requiring critical care then these children's hospitals would see an increase bed occupancy.

'cos the simple data file only goes back to October, I'm just gonna look at that, should be plenty of time
B'ham, 9 covid on 27th December, 10 at various times since October pre-omicron, but peak is 11 on the 26th.
Sheff, 8 covid on 27th, a big peak, previous high of 3
L'pool, 6 covid on 27th, various peaks of 8
London, 6 covid on 27th, peak of 11 on the 23rd, 6within normal bounds of earlier days.

So despite admissions in the age group being quite a bit higher, number in the specific hospitals not increased. Of course this could be because covid care is kept away from these hospitals (although they've always had some - but could just be other conditions where their expertise is needed although low average stays)

Or it could be because of higher community rates and therefore higher incidental covid in kids which don't turn up in in-patient stats.

There is a question about why kids covid beds are not counted in the data (it's not possible to derive it from the other totals that I can see)

Asking here as I'd like an answer backed up by some facts.

Theoretically can coronavirus mutate into something much worse? I've seen a few things being said about this, either:

• No, it will only mutate into something milder and eventually be like the common cold.

• Yes, it has the potential to mutate into something significantly worse.

• It has some limited potential to mutate and it might be worse, but only in a mild/moderate way.

The virus becoming like "the common cold" will most likely not be from mutations to be milder, it will be from prior immunity in the human population from infection or vaccines (omicron not withstanding) combined with the very low severity in children (RSV one of the commonest colds kills lots of kids)

Yes all viruses can mutate, and there's no limits in the area etc. There's no reason to assume this virus is the one that mutates to be worse rather than some other virus, or some new animal-human transmission.

For a virus to find a niche where it's transmissible with low/no symptoms and not deadly in the short term, but deadly in the long term is rare, and those things are required, as otherwise the infection is too easily controlled.

Thank you sirfred

@containsnuts

titchy

JanglyBeads
Or at least their users have priority?

They're at KCL - they'll have plenty of access to PCRs if they did need - it's fairly standard kit for uni labs!

I'm on the app but haven't had to do a PCR since joining. Don't you just book through the goverment site but select 'part if a study' so you get a test with non classic symptoms and results sent to Zoe? I thought they were all proceed the same way otherwise?

Not anymore. I got a test just before Xmas. You now have to book via a link on an email that they send to you, which explains that there’s a change in how they are now doing tests. The results aren’t now shared with test and trace, and the packaging (I did a postal test) was totally different to a test ordered in the regular way for my DH a couple of days later.

Would children with covid not just be in an adult ward in an adult bed in terms of the statistics? I don't really know how the stats are drawn up, but infection control would take priority over wanting to put children in with other children and there aren't enough children with covid in most hospitals to have their own wards

Would children with covid not just be in an adult ward in an adult bed in terms of the statistics?

Not in a children's hospital, hence the hypothesis.

And the claim in the tweet was that admissions in children was up to very high levels, hence there would be plenty of them to facilitate specific child covid wards. I don't personally believe that, believing that kids are much more likely to be coincidental covid that doesn't result in bed occupancy in a non locked down society and unprecedented prevalence.

I was hoping someone would know those stats. A quick look at a few other sources suggests it is a lot higher than normal, even for winter

500 covid admissions doesn't move the children's admissions to a "lot higher than normal", it's still a small fraction of all admissions. December's covid 11-18 admissions were only roughly double the number admitted for eating orders in the average month.

So if childhood activity is considerably higher than normal, it is not coming from a covid test.

Thanks fred. We definitely need greater transparency on children. Otherwise it can fuel all sorts of anxieties/ conspiracy theories and misunderstanding. That's why I shared the Tweet with the graphs etc but its hard to analyse further.

How many children's hospitals are there though? Do children with covid really end up in them (as opposed to at their local hospital)? I thought they were more specialised hospitals used by very sick children with long term conditions mainly. Happy to accept I may be wrong, but would assume most kids with covid would be admitted via their local A&E and if they need inpatient care, be put on the covid ward in that hospital. I've had friends with sick babies and children including respiratory problems (not covid) who were definitely treated at our local hospital. I've never heard of any child locally who's been admitted to a specialist children's hospital.

I think speculating about children's admissions isn't all that helpful, without more information from actual medical staff/ authorities about what is going on.

I can also appreciate that it might be difficult to produce data if they are a) busier than usual b) short staffed c) subject to mandates about what is a very sensitive area.

The positive thing is that children have been overall much less impacted by covid so far, as DS's consultant always reminds me (we haven't seen her since omicron though, because of the backlog)

I thought they were more specialised hospitals used by very sick children with long term conditions mainly

What about my hypothesis are you refuting though? If children's hospital have always had covid patients - and they did as far back as the stats go - then if childhood covid admissions increase, then the increase should be seen in children's hospitals? I think we need more to refute it than "there are only 4 such hospitals".

You're absolutely right that it may just be A&E attendance, but if it is just A&E attendance then either it's coincidental infection, or infection so mild they're discharged home.

I absolutely agree it's not worth speculating about children's admissions, even the "scary high numbers" are tiny, but given that people are speculating by posting scary stories about the increase, I think it's well worth looking into the data that is available on children's covid burden - where it's really low.

Well, I have worked in children's hospitals when training, and also written a paper about one in another country (a long time ago).

However, I really don't know how children's hospitals generally organise their admissions relative to other children's wards in general hospitals; this could of course change in times of covid; different children's hospitals could have different arrangements for managing covid patients; and it may not be consistent across the same hospital if plans change, even in the same wave.

Fireflies children's hospitals would depend on area. In my city there is a children's hospital with it's own Emergency Department for 0-15 year olds.