Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Cases
194,747 - 5 January 2022
60,916 - 5 January 2021

Hospital admissions
2,258 - 28th December 2021
3,134 - 28th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
17,126 - 4 January 2022
30,775 - 4 January 2021

Patients in ICU
911 - 4 January 2022
2,560 - 4 January 2021

Deaths within 28 days
334 - 5 January 2022
830 - 5 January 2021

Surprisingly low LFD positive number for London, indicating currently the same as the number for Monday and the bank holiday - important because we were expecting lots of the school tests today - and we expected it high because of both the extra testing and the more certain reporting. It's not arrived.

3rd up to 20,000 cases at day 2, so pretty high, so a good chance of a reasonable peak from NYE mixing, however unlikely now to breach the pre-NYE peak, re-enforcing the likelihood that London is genuinely on downward trajectory anyone isolating to protect christmas or new year would now have exposed themselves, others isolating through choice will continue to isolate.

London PCR's also appear to be catching up with less "old" cases being added.

Under 100 additional patients again in London, so the 150 yesterday looking a bit of an outlier, which is good news, but still rising of course which is not so good use - although if the "at home covid observation virtual wards" are included, it would be really good to know how many that is, as obviously a 10 day virtual ward resident provides very limited healthcare capacity demand but a big impact in the stats. We have no idea how many and aren't completely sure if they really are included.

Nothing new that alarms me in the data.

@herecomesthsun

they are now saying London may have been 1 in 10

There was a report released just before Christmas that had London 1 in 10 on 19th december

It was published on 24th.

Posting this merely for interest. Guildford peak was and remains 15th December. Another smaller peak, along with everyone else on 29th.

This is very similar to some of the London boroughs.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Posting this merely for interest. Guildford peak was and remains 15th December. Another smaller peak, along with everyone else on 29th.

This is very similar to some of the London boroughs.

Did schools stop testing around that date ahead of the Christmas holidays?

www.mylondon.news/news/celebs/london-covid-1-10-people-22654586

Well this appears to have been newly produced

"One in 10 people in London had Covid last week, new data has revealed.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that around 3.2 million people in England alone are thought to have had the virus in the seven days up to December 31.

This equates to one in 15 people in England, but London had the highest infection rate of anywhere in the country."

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10342603/Record-1-7million-Brits-Covid-weekend-one-20-Londoners-carrying-virus.html

This headline from 24 Dec suggests 1 in 20, which is what I vaguely remember (but might of course be wrong).

ONS link 5th Jan www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10342603/Record-1-7million-Brits-Covid-weekend-one-20-Londoners-carrying-virus.html

ONS link 31st Dec (London 1 in 15) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31december2021

ONS Lonk 24th Dec (London 1 in 20) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2021

Obviously, these reports refer to data from the previous week, as there is a time lag.

I hope it's now plateaued/ coming down!!

oops ONS link 5th Jan www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5january2022

Hospital admissions
2,258 - 28th December 2021
2,181 25th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
17,126 - 4th January 2022
17,538 - 13th December 2020

These numbers are not far behind last years.

here on 24/12 report go to tab 1d and scroll along for London/ 19th Dec.

It says 1 in 10.

Not sure exactly what it means but I remember some articles at time.

@PrincessNutNuts

Hospital admissions 2,258 - 28th December 2021 2,181 25th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
17,126 - 4th January 2022
17,538 - 13th December 2020

These numbers are not far behind last years.

Why have you picked different dates?

@Ohsofedupwiththis

here on 24/12 report go to tab 1d and scroll along for London/ 19th Dec.

It says 1 in 10.

Not sure exactly what it means but I remember some articles at time.

not sure where you mean?

can you link please?

and why would those figures be different to the ONS?

@PrincessNutNuts

Hospital admissions 2,258 - 28th December 2021 2,181 25th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
17,126 - 4th January 2022
17,538 - 13th December 2020

These numbers are not far behind last years.

04th January 2021 30,775 v. 04th January 2022 17,276

Why are you not using like for like dates?

I think Princess NutNuts was trying to make the point that we might have a similar problem, just timed slightly differently, perhaps.

Although it is very good that we have relatively few deaths so far. Long may that continue.

Did schools stop testing around that date ahead of the Christmas holidays?

Eh? Schools weren't testing at all. Kids were testing at home as and when.

here I can't easily link sorry.

But on the link you provided for 24/12 (ONS) you can download the Covid Infection survey in Excel. If you go to Tab 1D England and scroll across to London and then down to 19th December, you can see 1 in 10.

Here is an article from 24/12

www.reuters.com/world/uk/one-10-londoners-likely-infected-with-covid-ons-models-2021-12-24/

[quote Ohsofedupwiththis]here I can't easily link sorry.

But on the link you provided for 24/12 (ONS) you can download the Covid Infection survey in Excel. If you go to Tab 1D England and scroll across to London and then down to 19th December, you can see 1 in 10.

Here is an article from 24/12

www.reuters.com/world/uk/one-10-londoners-likely-infected-with-covid-ons-models-2021-12-24/[/quote]
Well, I'm really puzzled as to what they think is happening in London then, and how they are reporting it.

I think Princess NutNuts was trying to make the point that we might have a similar problem, just timed slightly differently, perhaps

It's important though that date of admission, and date of in-patients are looked at the same, because one of the features of omicron is more admissions but much lower average time in hospital, so for the same number of admissions, the demand on in-patient data is much less, so to be really comparable you need to look at a combination of both. That the "number in hospital" is 3 weeks later is important positive information.

Of course, the actual numbers are still high, and could be worrying, but presenting the data in that way makes it more alarming than it actually is.

Well, I'm really puzzled as to what they think is happening in London then, and how they are reporting it

1 in 10 for both weeks is pretty much right, and matches a peak with the cases of just before christmas. The ONS were using a testing positive duration of 10 days - so the two seven day periods have some overlap, and both being 1 in 10 is reasonable.

I'm dubious if the 10 days is actually reasonable with omicron, but equally dubious if changing is reasonable as it makes comparison harder.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Did schools stop testing around that date ahead of the Christmas holidays?

Eh? Schools weren't testing at all. Kids were testing at home as and when.

Testing FOR school - it doesn't really matter where it was done. I was just having a think about what might have changed in these areas at that time and I thought about school finishing dates and whether fewer kids tested after that point? I'm not in England so have no idea if term dates are different by region there.

@herecomesthsun

I think Princess NutNuts was trying to make the point that we might have a similar problem, just timed slightly differently, perhaps.

Although it is very good that we have relatively few deaths so far. Long may that continue.

ONS claiming 'deaths by all causes' up more than 12% on the previous 5 years (previous 5 years now includes the pandemic). I wonder if this will rise further given the problems with staffing and delays to treatment?

@herecomesthsun

I think Princess NutNuts was trying to make the point that we might have a similar problem, just timed slightly differently, perhaps.

Although it is very good that we have relatively few deaths so far. Long may that continue.

I was.

I think it's more useful to match to similar points on last winter's wave rather than the date itself.

Now that we are so well vaccinated things should be slower, and it should take longer for a rise in positive tests to lead to a rise in admissions, and for a rise in admissions to lead to a rise in the total number of people in hospital...but it's still happening.

And Omicron started a couple of months later in the year than Alpha did.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases 194,747 - 5 January 2022 60,916 - 5 January 2021

Hospital admissions
2,258 - 28th December 2021
3,134 - 28th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
17,126 - 4 January 2022
30,775 - 4 January 2021

Patients in ICU
911 - 4 January 2022
2,560 - 4 January 2021

Deaths within 28 days
334 - 5 January 2022
830 - 5 January 2021

The difference between case numbers and ICU stand out

Not sure what the point in pp of matching different dates seems to just be trying to fudge it.

Rather than match point in numbers consider when peak is.

Now that we are so well vaccinated things should be slower, and it should take longer for a rise in positive tests to lead to a rise in admissions, and for a rise in admissions to lead to a rise in the total number of people in hospital...but it's still happening

The cases which are incidental covid, rather than primary covid, then it is absolutely not "should take longer for a rise in positive cases to lead to a rise in admissions", indeed it should be quite the opposite as a higher proportion of admissions we be discovered on admission (since the individual wasn't sick from covid). Also all hospital acquired admissions are on the day of case.

It is only cases where a person tested positive, then regressed where there's a delay between case and admission.

If you look at London for example over the last month, the peak in admissions is the same day as the peak in cases, and there was no corresponding peak 5 in admissions after the peak in cases (5 days chosen as that was the median time between test positive and admission where there was a delay) So I'm not so sure we can confidently say there's a delay between the two in Omicron, the data isn't really there for it.

It is interesting though matching it - because as you yourself pointed out PrincessNutNuts the peak last year was the 29th December 2020 and (currently I admit) the peak this year is also currently the 29th December so by that measure like for like is a useful measurement.

As always though it does show the science and data is fallible to being manipulated into suiting a particular viewpoint depending on how you use it!

Well, apparently only a minority of cases are incidental covid, aren't they.