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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

992 replies

boys3 · 01/01/2022 18:49

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
230
treeflowercat · 05/01/2022 12:16

@kirinm

Pretty much everyone I know (in London) stopped socialising in order to 'save' Christmas so i agree it'll be interesting to see if we have really peaked.
Indeed, it also seems extremely premature to claim the peak has happened, firstly, before the impact of New Year (which should be in the figures from today I'd have thought and, secondly, schools returning (which was the main driver of the sustained delta 'plateau' over the autumn.
JanglyBeads · 05/01/2022 12:19

www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/nnuh-squeezes-extra-patients-into-wards-8597932
Article about how one trust is managing the unprecedented number of patients.

I particularly posted it though because of the para immediately above the colourful graph - implies patients on the "at home" virtual wards are counted in their figures?

containsnuts · 05/01/2022 12:44

@JanglyBeads

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/nnuh-squeezes-extra-patients-into-wards-8597932 Article about how one trust is managing the unprecedented number of patients.

I particularly posted it though because of the para immediately above the colourful graph - implies patients on the "at home" virtual wards are counted in their figures?

Yes, it seems that way. Concerning because some of these people should really be in hospital but there isn't room for them.

The health service is in quite a bad way isn't it. Patients crammed into rooms, some montorored remotely and others told get a bus to A&E because there are no ambulances Sad.

FrazzledCareerWoman · 05/01/2022 13:01

@Haffiana

LFT have low specificity so can show positive for other colds etc. that's why the negative PCR overrides it (high specificity for Covid)

@FrazzledCareerWoman Can you please link to any research that backs this up? I can only find papers that conclude high specificity, and no evidence that they pick up 'other colds'.

From my relative, a public health doc, with link to article:

we've understood for a while that the specificity (true negative rate) for LFT was pretty good. Its been shown to be 92.4% to 100% in recent systematic review of 24 peer reviewed studies covering 26,00 tests. So it is particularly useful for excluding infection, especially when repeated. Its sensitivity (true positive rate) on the other hand was thought to be less reliable and this is confirmed in the same review with rates varying from as low as 37.7% to 99.2% across the 24 studies. So, yes there will be a range of potential confounders which might be responsible for this lower sensitivity and other corona virus antigens could be implicated. A systematic review is a study of studies. The are conducted against a defined framework and are designed to inform what the latest collective information on a subject is telling us. This one was published in the past 4 months and produced by researchers in Oxford and Birmingham. It is free on Pub Med Central (the Biological Publication Data Base of the Nat Institutes of Health, USA) , you can look at it here www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8371300/

FrazzledCareerWoman · 05/01/2022 13:03

Pretty sure specificity and sensitivity should be swapped round in that quote though. It's making my head hurt now!

FrazzledCareerWoman · 05/01/2022 13:04

But yes takeaway is that true negative rate is high but true positive rate lower. So false positives are more likely than false negatives

containsnuts · 05/01/2022 13:09

BBC and Sky news now clarifying that rule changes are for ASYMPTOMATIC cases so hopefully less chance of people getting false results and less impact if they do.

Ohsofedupwiththis · 05/01/2022 13:15

Yes, it seems that way. Concerning because some of these people should really be in hospital but there isn't room for them.

I actually think this has the potential to be a really good idea and will be used more in the future.

And many people recover better at home than in hospital as long as they have access to the care they need if circumstances change.

Haffiana · 05/01/2022 13:30

@FrazzledCareerWoman

But yes takeaway is that true negative rate is high but true positive rate lower. So false positives are more likely than false negatives
The article says the exact opposite of this, quite clearly. You have muddled specificity and sensitivity AND misunderstood what they mean.

Anyway, for the avoidance of doubt for anyone else reading this thread: False positives in a LFT are extremely rare. The sensitivity of LFTs is not clear cut, but it suggests that false negatives are certainly possible.

If the LF test shows positive you almost certainly have Covid (and only Covid, not a cold.).

If it shows negative, you likely do not have Covid, but you may have Covid and the test has missed it and/or you are not shedding enough virus for the test to pick up.

FrazzledCareerWoman · 05/01/2022 13:47

But why then would you get a negative PCR ?? If the PCR are more sensitive/accurate? This has happened to me and many people I know. Symptomatic with positive LFT but negative PCR (multiple PCR in some cases)

FrazzledCareerWoman · 05/01/2022 13:52

Btw I acknowledge your point i muddled the meanings , the article states that LFT have high specificity so false positives are rare

JanglyBeads · 05/01/2022 14:14

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/05/covid-hospitalizations-us-children-omicron-schools-hospitals?utmterm=Autofeed&CMP=twttgu&utmmedium&utmmsource=Twitter#Echobox=1641391095

Halfway through, this says proportion of admissions which are children is a lot higher than in previous waves?

Itisasecret · 05/01/2022 14:18

@JanglyBeads

Aren't their children vaccinated as well?
Firefliess · 05/01/2022 14:34

The change in guidance about confirmatory PCRs applies to everyone taking LFTs. You're only supposed to be using LFTs in the first place if you're "asymptomatic" (which includes having cold symptoms such as a runny nose or sore throat as those are not considered core covid symptoms) It would clearly be a nonsense to suggest that completely asymptomatic people should assume a positive LFT to be correct and isolate, while those with minor symptoms need to get a PCR to check their positive LFT was correct - if you have a positive LFT and minor symptoms, you have covid!!

Symptomatic people (ie those with the three core covid symptoms) are told not to bother with a LFT but to go straight to PCR. If you do do a LFT and it's negative but then develop one of the 3 symptoms (eg you start coughing) you should get a PCR and isolate until you get the result.

boys3 · 05/01/2022 14:35

@JanglyBeads

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/nnuh-squeezes-extra-patients-into-wards-8597932 Article about how one trust is managing the unprecedented number of patients.

I particularly posted it though because of the para immediately above the colourful graph - implies patients on the "at home" virtual wards are counted in their figures?

Another key point is the 170 or so patients who are ready for discharge but have nowhere to go. The need to fix the broken social care system is another critical dependency for the NHS.

Chris Hopson mentioned an overall figure of c.10,000 patients in an interview last week.

It’s almost as if we need some sort of integrated approach. Not confident that the concept of upfront investment to deliver much bigger medium to long-term savings (and quality of life improvements for all concerned) fits with shorter term electoral cycles. Our cup does not runneth over with brave politicians.

That’s a whole other thread though.

OP posts:
JanglyBeads · 05/01/2022 14:44

One in 15 had Covid in week after Christmas, ONS estimates
Tim Vizard
Consultant statistician, BBC News

BBC
Copyright: BBC
Now it's back to the UK-wide picture: more than 3.7 million people in the UK would test positive for coronavirus in the week ending 31 December, estimates from the ONS survey suggest.
This would be the highest level of infections recorded by the ONS since the survey started.
The figures equate to 5.8% of the population, or one in 15 people in that week.
This compares with nearly 2.3 million people (or one in 30) testing positive in the week ending 23 December.
The rates of people estimated to be testing positive increased in all parts of the UK in the week ending 31 December:
• England: One in 15 (previously one in 25)
• Wales: One in 20 (previously one in 40)
• Northern Ireland: One in 25 (previously one in 40)
• Scotland: One in 20 (previously one in 40

JanglyBeads · 05/01/2022 14:45

Does ONS count / calculate reinfections?

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/01/2022 14:46

Have they changed their methodology for the suspected shorter duration of omicron, or is the 1 in 15 still based on the same duration as previous? (ie it would actually be lower if the duration of infection is less?)

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/01/2022 14:55

Ooh, thanks for reminding me about re-infections, and why I was so annoyed with Ferguson for saying "scientists see the data and it's 10-15% reinfections".

There's two points to it, one is the implication that anyone who is not paid by the government as a scientist to work on this is "not a scientist" and therefore should have no opinion, essentially gatekeeping knowledge in a completely unscientific way.

More importantly though, he, as a scientist has data which is directly contradictory to the published data, significantly so, over 110% wrong - imagine the deaths figure was under a half what was true in the published data, anyone would have an ethical and professional requirement to point that out. But instead he just waffles over it, with a number he barely knows (10-15% is both a massive range and something that should be known to very high accuracy unless he's talking about something completely different) and completely ignores the published data. That isn't scientific.

Publishing all data all the time is not reasonable, it's really hard to publish data, it's expensive, changing the systems of the public dashboard risky such that you might end up with none etc. So there's nothing wrong with not publishing the detailed data, what is wrong is leaving data that is known to be incorrect to be published, the very minimum required is caveats and statements where the incorrect data is published (if it is still published) and a technical paper clarifying the situation with accurate figures at the snapshot.

If scientists are not publishing their results and providing the data for peer review, they are not scientists, they aren't doing science, and they should not be claiming it.

Haffiana · 05/01/2022 14:56

@FrazzledCareerWoman

But why then would you get a negative PCR ?? If the PCR are more sensitive/accurate? This has happened to me and many people I know. Symptomatic with positive LFT but negative PCR (multiple PCR in some cases)
Yes, I agree, it comes up on this board all the time; positive LFT followed by negative PCR. However many people take a second subsequent PCR that comes back positive.

I would guess there are a number of reasons.

PCRs have a high false negative rate (up to 30%). They are supposed to have a higher sensitivity than LFTs, but very possibly there is little in it...

Lab error is something that we do not have the figures for, but given the sheer volume of tests being processed, it may well be significant.

User error is always a possibility - anecdotally, the swabs I have had taken at testing sites have always been less thorough than my own!

The REALLY significant thing here is symptoms. If you have symptoms and a positive test of any type, then that by itself statistically increases the chances of a false positive to vanishingly small. However, it makes no difference to the false negative rate.

It does make a difference to the sensitivity though, as a symptomatic person is likely to have more swabbable virus than someone who has not yet developed symptoms. The new guidlines are for PCRs to be used when a person has symptoms, but in fact, a LFT will also be more likely to pick up an infection as this point too.

herecomesthsun · 05/01/2022 15:04

I thought I caught ONS suggesting an estimated figure of 1 in 11 on the Radio 4 news at some point after Christmas (not sure what that was for? London maybe?)

JanglyBeads · 05/01/2022 15:33

Must have been @herecomesthsun ?

herecomesthsun · 05/01/2022 15:47

they are now saying London may have been 1 in 10

Words · 05/01/2022 16:00

Yes I heard that too. Pretty certain it was London.

pussycatunpickingcrossesagain · 05/01/2022 16:09

194,747 cases and sadly 334 deaths (which includes some backlog from England)