Work sending messages pleading for help

[whenwillthemadnessend]

My work has sent out an email this morning pleading for help today. I expect it will be
Like this for a few weeks now.

It's not an essential service likely but if my Work is doing it how are the essential services going to cope

This is why I think we will
End up with some restrictions soon.

[quote Blubells]@borntobequiet I think you'll find there are indeed scientists with a sound medical understanding calling for isolation to be eliminated

For example:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2021/12/28/people-with-covid-should-be-able-to-go-about-normal-lives-15831377/amp/

[/quote]
After Easter, maybe depending on what the virus is like then. Did you even read the article you just posted?

Autumndays So because I argue that we should not expect people to lock themselves away just on the worry they might be vulnerable and let Covid run through the rest of us, some of whom are vulnerable and will lead to hospitals filling up as they become severely ill you assume I am in favour of a total lockdown?

Since no Scientists are calling for that, I am not. However I would support the sensible restrictions being suggested to avoid hospitals being overrun. In London we are in shutdown not lockdown because the high case numbers are still concentrated in the 20 to 30 working age group (all the ones I know being genuinely ill for 3days or more) , and to a lesser extent 30 to 40 because it is being transmitted in workplaces which are struggling as a consequence . Many restaurants for instance just shut up shop early for Christmas and will not be back until January. In those age groups the case rate is approaching 5000 per 100k and it has not reached the more vulnerable older age groups or the ethnically diverse areas where genetic vulnerability is known to be greater (case numbers still less than 1k per 100k) Then is when hospitalisation will rise and they are already near the 400 mark that will apparently trigger restrictions. My local hospital has already declared a major incident. As with the last two waves London is the canary in the coal mine and they are waiting to see if it expires before imposing restrictions too little too late. For the purely selfish reason that I want access to healthcare if I need it I want to see case numbers bought down so that we don’t see our hospital actually crash. I base my opinions on the numbers and what the scientists say, not wishful thinking or a lack of empathy.

Just to update that in the latest stats, cases have levelled off in the age groups and boroughs that were previously seeing exponential growth but the places that are seeing exponential growth now are North West London, Hillingdon and Hounslow, the boroughs that previously saw huge pressures on their hospitals in previous waves as a result of the particular vulnerability of the local population. Hospital admissions now at 372, against the trigger level of 400…..

However I would support the sensible restrictions being suggested to avoid hospitals being overrun.

Talking about 'sensible restrictions' sounds so, well, 'sensible'.

But do these 'sensible restrictions' actually work to stop the spread of a massively contagious virus like Omnicron? They don't seem to have done much good in France or Ireland, for example.

Obviously I'm no expert, just like everyone else here, but I suspect nothing short of a full lockdown will stop Omnicron.

If you don't get paid sick pay it's a very difficult decision to stay off work ,if that's going to leave you short of cash to pay your bills
Lots of wealthy people WFH in office type jobs seem to find that difficult to understand

@Emilyontmoor

Just to update that in the latest stats, cases have levelled off in the age groups and boroughs that were previously seeing exponential growth but the places that are seeing exponential growth now are North West London, Hillingdon and Hounslow, the boroughs that previously saw huge pressures on their hospitals in previous waves as a result of the particular vulnerability of the local population. Hospital admissions now at 372, against the trigger level of 400…..

It has to be at 400 for a period of time though - not just a one-off?

@IcedPurple

However I would support the sensible restrictions being suggested to avoid hospitals being overrun.

Talking about 'sensible restrictions' sounds so, well, 'sensible'.

But do these 'sensible restrictions' actually work to stop the spread of a massively contagious virus like Omnicron? They don't seem to have done much good in France or Ireland, for example.

Obviously I'm no expert, just like everyone else here, but I suspect nothing short of a full lockdown will stop Omnicron.

The restrictions aren't aimed at stopping it though. The best we can hope to do is slow it down so that the healthcare system can try to keep pace with the tide of infections.

Iced I think we are beyond stopping it but we can slow it down and unlike with previous lockdowns we do have vaccination in our armoury.

Before Christmas people in London were staying in to stay safe for Christmas in those worst hit age groups and it does seem to have levelled off but everyone I know, having cancelled anything in a venue is now saying it and there is going to be a massive amount of mixing in house parties after household mixing at Christmas. I am not sure Boris is in a position to stop that anyway anymore. Apart from his parties so many of that age group spent Christmas alone isolating.

As with previous waves it is going to be grim in London (but we don’t vote for them anyway) but restrictions will come in in line with the rest of the U.K. to try to ease pressure on the NHS in the rest of England so all their geriatric voters are protected.

The restrictions aren't aimed at stopping it though. The best we can hope to do is slow it down so that the healthcare system can try to keep pace with the tide of infections.

Well yes, but as I said, it's open to question whether 'sensible restrictions' will do much to achieve this aim.

Look at France. They recorded their biggest case load yesterday, despite implementing lots of 'sensible restrictions', including a ban on British tourists. Same with Ireland, where cases are increasing very rapidly, despite ramping up already pretty tight restrictions a few weeks ago.

What 'sensible restrictions' have been shown to have much effect against Omnicron?

Iced I think we are beyond stopping it but we can slow it down

Short of a full lockdown, how can we slow down such a massively contagious virus? "Sensible restrictions" don't seem to be working elsewhere.

Iced Well anything has to be better than allowing everyone to mix freely during a party period to provide the virus with the maximum opportunities to transmit? We are now the only part of the U.K. doing that. France is still behind us and at least had lower case numbers through the summer.

Let’s see how all those headlines about how the rest of the U.K. are being too cautious and suppressing freedom age

@Emilyontmoor

Autumndays So because I argue that we should not expect people to lock themselves away just on the worry they might be vulnerable and let Covid run through the rest of us, some of whom are vulnerable and will lead to hospitals filling up as they become severely ill you assume I am in favour of a total lockdown?

Since no Scientists are calling for that, I am not. However I would support the sensible restrictions being suggested to avoid hospitals being overrun. In London we are in shutdown not lockdown because the high case numbers are still concentrated in the 20 to 30 working age group (all the ones I know being genuinely ill for 3days or more) , and to a lesser extent 30 to 40 because it is being transmitted in workplaces which are struggling as a consequence . Many restaurants for instance just shut up shop early for Christmas and will not be back until January. In those age groups the case rate is approaching 5000 per 100k and it has not reached the more vulnerable older age groups or the ethnically diverse areas where genetic vulnerability is known to be greater (case numbers still less than 1k per 100k) Then is when hospitalisation will rise and they are already near the 400 mark that will apparently trigger restrictions. My local hospital has already declared a major incident. As with the last two waves London is the canary in the coal mine and they are waiting to see if it expires before imposing restrictions too little too late. For the purely selfish reason that I want access to healthcare if I need it I want to see case numbers bought down so that we don’t see our hospital actually crash. I base my opinions on the numbers and what the scientists say, not wishful thinking or a lack of empathy.

You make absolutely no sense. You're literally saying you think everyone should sacrifice their livelihood so the very few don't have to take personal responsibility for their own health.

@Emilyontmoor

Iced Well anything has to be better than allowing everyone to mix freely during a party period to provide the virus with the maximum opportunities to transmit? We are now the only part of the U.K. doing that. France is still behind us and at least had lower case numbers through the summer.

Let’s see how all those headlines about how the rest of the U.K. are being too cautious and suppressing freedom age

Your logic seems to be that just because other countries are "doing something", England should too. Even when that something, although you still haven't said exactly which 'sensible restrictions' you'd like to see introduced, haven't been shown to work anywhere with Omnicron.

This virus doesn't seem to need parties to transmit. It appears to be incredibly contagious, even with 'sensible restrictions'. Thankfully it also appears to be mild in the vast majority of cases.

As for 'headlines', I'm not sure what you're referring to as I haven't mentioned any.

@Emilyontmoor

Just to update that in the latest stats, cases have levelled off in the age groups and boroughs that were previously seeing exponential growth but the places that are seeing exponential growth now are North West London, Hillingdon and Hounslow, the boroughs that previously saw huge pressures on their hospitals in previous waves as a result of the particular vulnerability of the local population. Hospital admissions now at 372, against the trigger level of 400…..

I think that is a great number and look promising. 8,400 people currently in hospital who have COVID, 65% of which are in hospital being treated for something else = 2,940 people in hospital because of covid.

Roughly 1.2 million people caught covid in the last week alone, so compared to the number of people in hospital its what 0.2% of the number of people who caught covid this week? If you think we need to shut down the country or even bring in any more restrictions because of an illness where 99.98% people are fine, you're off your head.

@icedpurple

And what was france highes case numbers? Im betting the uk numbers of well over 100k a day are higher.

[quote Covidworries]@icedpurple

And what was france highes case numbers? Im betting the uk numbers of well over 100k a day are higher.[/quote]
I'll take that bet. How much do you want to put on the table?

You need to quote it normalised for the whole population, though, for the bet to be fair.

@cantkeepawayforever

You need to quote it normalised for the whole population, though, for the bet to be fair.

What do you mean 'normalised'? Britain and France have almost the same population.

It was the other poster who wanted to make a 'bet', not me.

IcedPurple:

France highest day in pandemic: 24/112/2021 104,611 confirmed cases

UK highest cases are over 120,000

The population of the UK is very slightly larger, so it might be very marginal.....but from the published raw figures (I have ignored the post-Christmas catch-up days as I can see that those would be distorted), UK definitely higher.

So CovidWorries' assertion is correct - UK highest cases are higher than France's.

@cantkeepawayforever

So CovidWorries' assertion is correct - UK highest cases are higher than France's.

Only if, for some reason, you choose to look at out-of-date data and selectively 'ignore' stats which don't suit you. My reference was specifically to 'yesterday', not a random number of days ago.

From the BBC yesterday.

"On Tuesday, France reported 179,807 new infections, Europe's highest ever number of daily cases."

So no, their assertion is not correct. Not that they actually made an 'assertion', rather a bet, which they would have lost.

The UK is ahead of the curve as omicron took off a couple of weeks before it did on the continent. I bet cases in France will continue to rise sharply.

In the UK I hope we're plateauing soon!

Butbwe would also have to lool at and compare the way data is collected in france and the UK. For example in the uk yesterday in was only England data as NI, Scotland and Wales didnt release figures over bank hols. Uk figures are always lower over weekends and back holidays due to delay in reporting so our true figures wont be known till thursday data.

Now it is possible that france system works the same. Hopefully someone in france and in the know will be able to confirm. Or its possible that data release in france is more consistant.

World o meter still records the UK as higher cases than france through and in addition to this we have had higher cases than france for months so while their current cases are shocking i still think the French have handled covid more effectively

French Health Minister Olivier Véran warned that "everything suggests" France could see as many as 250,000 daily cases by the start of January.

Autumndays Well clearly you only see the sense you want to see. “Shut down the country” is a total straw man, we have vaccines so we are already suppressing the virus and hospitalisations.

I will put it in simpler words without any confusing numbers for you. London is suffering economic damage and high levels of hospital admissions as a result of an exponential rise in cases, currently concentrated in the younger age groups . Hospitalisations have risen 52% in a week and it is still behind the lag between infection, hospitalisation and death, particularly as it has been not spread to the most vulnerable parts of the population. It is early days and yet it is approaching the rate that even the politicians who are staking their political futures on libertarianism are conceding will require restrictions to protect the NHS.

The rest of the country, apart from Manchester, is yet to see the rise in cases. let alone the rate of hospitalisation. It is simply too soon to say that this is such a mild disease that with huge case numbers even a small proportion being hospitalised won’t cause the NHS to crash as it already looks set to do in London. Measures like restrictions on household mixing won’t cause the same level of economic damage that the high case numbers we are seeing in London already are. What is causing the damage apart from sickness absence and lack of footfall is the lack of any government framework to support our industries through this.

If you are looking to paint me as a lockdown nut you are far from the truth but I am seeing on the ground within my community the damage that high case numbers are doing. And that chimes with the scientific consensus.

Iced It is simple public health logic that if you limit the number of interactions as they have elsewhere it will slow down the rate of transmission, maybe not by as much as with other variants but even if it is just by 1%, 1% of the very big number of cases which Omichron is set to cause, will slow the rate down. I am quite sure infections flattened in the 20 something age group last week because they stayed home. We will see what happens when they all go out at the weekend.

There is a false comparison between Covid and Colds and Flu as if branding it as such somehow changes it’s nature. The fact is that if flu or another Coronavirus had the transmissibility and impact on the economy and public health of Covid it would be subject to infection control strategies as it was for Swine Flu in 2009, Hong Kong flu in 1957 (which killed my grandfather at the age of 45 ) etc . That was exactly what the (inadequate) pandemic response plans in place in 2019 were designed to do. Even the initial wild type of Covid was three times more transmissible than flu, we don’t know exactly yet but clearly Omichron is many more times transmissible than that.