A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

[dancingstars]

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

@Bunnyfuller

Cheese and wine after work meetings ok tho? Asking for a friend…

Absolutely! Can't wait. Love a bit of cheese and wine

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway,

At current rates we will, which is why I think anyone calling for a ‘circuit breaker’ to prevent high cases based on doubling times, but have that in January, might want to go and look at the case growth again. It’s growing SO fast that it’ll have very efficiently worked its way through most of the population by the new year.

In South Africa those initial growth rates haven’t kept up, and it looks like regions are peaking about 4 weeks into the wave. That’s without significant restrictions or lockdowns.

Pointless waste of time. With Covid now presenting as a cold for many people, they won’t be testing every runny nose so it’s going to blow through the population anyway.

Realistically I can’t see they’ll get anything like the compliance needed to give it a chance to work. The laughing press advisor and joking Rees Mogg have seen to that. It’s clearly one rule for them and one for us

*My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway, Christmas delay may do this•

As I point out above the outbreak is concentrated geographically and demographically, it isn’t near a peak in London because it is still concentrated amongst people who have most contact with others where it is transmitting with never before seen virulence in spite of people already curtailing their activities ((many restaurants and theatres have already closed) . It has yet to reach other demographics in London let alone the rest of the country, and already London hospitals are struggling. Whatever your hope is it is not borne out by what is actually happening.

[quote ChristmasRobins]@MarshaBradyo If children had been double-jabbed over the summer, we could start boosting them now.

What I don't understand about the boosters is whether they make up for waning immunity (so someone recently double jabbed is well protected as their immunity hasn't had time to wane) or whether it's the fact of a third dose that makes the difference.[/quote]
Immunity is more than an antibody response, but in the case of covid; "recent multiple clinical studies strongly suggest that the presence of high-level neutralizing antibodies is generally sufficient to confer protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and that the protection against COVID-19 development is largely explained by robust SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibody response."

Multiple studies show that antibodies peak at ~28 days and that at 6 months post-vaccination the level of antibodies is 5-10 times lower than at that peak. Attached are graphs from 3 different papers (in the last one the red lines represent people who have recovered from covid and had a vaccine, while blue is for vaccine alone.)

The booster is there to try to increase those circulating antibody levels.

I find it so frustrating people fail to see the bigger picture. Restrictions are not about protecting any individual. You might be triple vaccinated, young and healthy and at very low risk personally and that has never been the issue. It's always been about ensuring the health service and other essential services still have capacity to help with all non-covid illnesses and accidents etc. This past week nearly a third of London's fire crews have been out of action due to covid. You might not worry about dying of covid but what happens if your house is on fire and the fire brigade has no crews to send? What happens if your child has an accident or your mum has a stroke and the ambulance takes five hours to come?

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway,

Is there any reason why this might happen?

@rrhuth

I will do it because IMO it looks needed, I am just sad it is needed.

I didn't think covid was 'over' and I was unhappy with the ongoing Delta case rate - but this is a whole other level of rubbish.

Why do you feel it's needed?

Its a mild illness for most people. Almost all data is showing this.
The reaction to it is so bizarre.

@Emilyontmoor

*My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway, Christmas delay may do this•

As I point out above the outbreak is concentrated geographically and demographically, it isn’t near a peak in London because it is still concentrated amongst people who have most contact with others where it is transmitting with never before seen virulence in spite of people already curtailing their activities ((many restaurants and theatres have already closed) . It has yet to reach other demographics in London let alone the rest of the country, and already London hospitals are struggling. Whatever your hope is it is not borne out by what is actually happening.

What will happen

When would you say the peak will be?

Feel free to offer up timing on peak to anyone questioning..

If this lasts just two weeks I’ll run through trafalgar sq naked.

We are due to go to my in laws on 27th, we couldn't see them last year as we were slapped into tier 4. My husband and kids will be devastated if we can't see them 2 years in a row 😢

@Charles11

Its a mild illness for most people. Almost all data is showing this. The reaction to it is so bizarre.

You know how London is currently believed to be a few days to a week ahead of the rest of the country in the omicron wave?

Covid hospital admissions have gone up 38% this week in London compared to last week.

And both the London Ambulance Service and the London Fire Brigade are unable to staff a full rota due to sickness.

@DaisyNGO the whole thread is a discussion about why it is needed!

@Charles11

Its a mild illness for most people. Almost all data is showing this. The reaction to it is so bizarre.

What do difficult to understand about a small percentage of a huge number is still a very big number?

Thewaythatlightfalls I’ll join you 😂

@Charles11 do you touch the people interviewed in this article are making a big fuss over nothing?

Covid: 'We're not looking forward to doing it all again' www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59667190

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas the staffing issues are because they have to self isolate for 10 days but because people are very ill.
I wonder what the breakdown of hospital admissions are for presenting issues and age.

@TheWayTheLightFalls

If this lasts just two weeks I’ll run through trafalgar sq naked.

I suppose it will be nice and quiet.

@GoldenOmber

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway,

At current rates we will, which is why I think anyone calling for a ‘circuit breaker’ to prevent high cases based on doubling times, but have that in January, might want to go and look at the case growth again. It’s growing SO fast that it’ll have very efficiently worked its way through most of the population by the new year.

In South Africa those initial growth rates haven’t kept up, and it looks like regions are peaking about 4 weeks into the wave. That’s without significant restrictions or lockdowns.

It’s interesting

My post was a question initially as I wondered if anyone had seen suggestions on timing

If people think they have other info / suggestions go for it - happy to hear what is thought

@nordica

I find it so frustrating people fail to see the bigger picture. Restrictions are not about protecting any individual. You might be triple vaccinated, young and healthy and at very low risk personally and that has never been the issue. It's always been about ensuring the health service and other essential services still have capacity to help with all non-covid illnesses and accidents etc. This past week nearly a third of London's fire crews have been out of action due to covid. You might not worry about dying of covid but what happens if your house is on fire and the fire brigade has no crews to send? What happens if your child has an accident or your mum has a stroke and the ambulance takes five hours to come?

It's a point that many seem incapable or unwilling to understand.

It reflects quite sadly that so many cannot understand this underlying principle of it all that is true for every other single country battling with it.

@GoldenOmber

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway,

At current rates we will, which is why I think anyone calling for a ‘circuit breaker’ to prevent high cases based on doubling times, but have that in January, might want to go and look at the case growth again. It’s growing SO fast that it’ll have very efficiently worked its way through most of the population by the new year.

In South Africa those initial growth rates haven’t kept up, and it looks like regions are peaking about 4 weeks into the wave. That’s without significant restrictions or lockdowns.

I find it strange that we always impose restrictions after the wave of the virus has peaked. It's too late then.

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway,

Is there any reason why this might happen?

Possibly - boosters are having an effect within a couple of days, more quickly than they had initially expected, and there are huge numbers being boostered at the moment (a 24-hour jab-a-thon at one of the London stadiums, for example); also the case numbers will naturally slow as more and more people get it. So it's possible that it could be faster peak than previous ones. Of course, other possibilities too! But I hope that the boosters will make a difference sooner rather than later.

[quote Barbie222]@Chickenrun771 That figure's actually really, really bad for unvaccinated people, isn't it? 35% of people in hospital are unvaccinated, when they make up less than 15% of the population? You've been called out for spreading misinformation about numbers vaccinated / unvaccinated in hospital before, when the numbers weren't as bad as this. I'll attach the little infographic that you really don't like to see! [/quote]
"You've been called out for spreading misinformation before when the numbers weren't as bad as this" - where? Every single piece of data I have spoken about can be linked back to a data based study, and this is the first thread I have answered, so unfortunately your post does not fly.

The data is from October (Fullfact) when 46 million had received a second dose.
There are about 68 million people in the UK.
So, and let a maths person correct me here, but that, is around 67 percent of the overall population who are vaccinated as of October.
And So, the 35% unvax'd in covid wards in October.... THAT figure, is pretty bloody relative.