A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

[dancingstars]

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

@Malteser71

Exactly how dangerous is it, Buster?

Well, unlike any other workplace, we are crammed into unventilated rooms full of unvaccinated people, who have questionable hygiene practices. Those unvaccinated people cannot (either because of space or because of their age) keep their distance and neither are they told to wear masks. Subsequently the adults in the rooms with them are contacting Covid in greater numbers than the people who work in banks, offices and shops. Whilst most are double vaxxed, younger staff were not considered a priority and are waiting for boosters, often behind Katie, who is the same age but is ‘working from home’. Having said that, even three jabs doesn’t stop teachers catching Covid in their workplaces and many of my colleagues have been seriously ill, some hospitalised, some suffering with long Covid for over half a term. Many are now on round two (or three) of Covid. To me that makes it a dangerous workplace and the things that make it dangerous (and threaten schools opening) need addressing.

Are you against making schools safer? Why? It isn’t such a big ask if you want schools to stay open so desperately, is it?

@Bunnyfuller

Cheese and wine after work meetings ok tho? Asking for a friend…

Of course, same as driving to Barnard castle is.

Also don’t think it helps to assume that anyone who doesn’t agree with your favoured ‘measures’ or ‘mitigations’ or ‘protections’ isn't worried about omicron.

I don’t think we can say omicron wave will all be fine. I think it has a fair sized risk of not being fine at all. I am just very far from convinced that there is much we can do to stop it, rather than mitigate against the damage.

We have observed every covid rule to date. After the Downing Street debacles of last Christmas preceded by Cummings, Handcock and Ferguson, I shall not be complying again. The Government has lost its moral authority.

The chances of a vaccinated person with no co-morbidities dying from Covid (not with) are vanishingly small.

I don't think we are trying to get "control over it" - just trying to reduce the bunching of infections.

So yes flatten the bloody curve again.

I'll comply. But I'm so angry and I've got nothing to direct it at.

@GoldenOmber

Also don’t think it helps to assume that anyone who doesn’t agree with your favoured ‘measures’ or ‘mitigations’ or ‘protections’ isn't worried about omicron.

I don’t think we can say omicron wave will all be fine. I think it has a fair sized risk of not being fine at all. I am just very far from convinced that there is much we can do to stop it, rather than mitigate against the damage.

So we shouldn’t try? Give ourselves time for as many as people as possible to have boosters - shown today to be at least 85% effective against Omicron as opposed to the 40% (Pfizer) or 10% (AZ) that we currently have? And give them the two weeks it takes after the jab to be effective?

@lovescats3

I agree with you buster and am not saying school and uni staff health should be compromised in any way.the other mitigation s you mentioned need to be brought in and I would be happy to pay more tax to institute them .I actually think the damage to children and young people's mental health is a bigger and more potentially devastating problem than the education disruption.

Thank you!

Has there been any suggestion of when it will peak?

Wasn't last October supposed to be a "circuit breaker" then led into months of full lockdown? I might be wrong, it's all a bit of a blur!

The chances of a vaccinated person with no co-morbidities dying from Covid (not with) are vanishingly small

Yes but that’s not the issue. The issue is people have decided not to get the vaccine and those individuals are disproportionately taking up emergency medical care and hospital beds. So people who have heart attacks, road traffic accidents, any other healthcare need will find they can’t have treatment because the NHS is too busy treating (primarily) the unjabbed.

It’s about the NHS being overwhelmed, not anyone’s risk of dying from covid on an individual level.

I work in a school. I'm 60+. We are a very big high school and mask under chin is the default teenage approach. The site is old and holds many times more children than it was originally designed for. Of course I'm scared of getting Covid, but I'm more scared of the consequences to society of us closing. We MUST stay open.

As with this time last year and March 2020 we have an out of control virus in London.

We have one hospital trust (Guy’s and St Thomas) cancelling all non essential work as a result of staff absence and a 30% increase in Covid admissions. We have most London boroughs over 700 cases per 1000, including ones with high rates of vaccinations eg Richmond which has 40% boosted. 75% of cases are omichron and that is 19 days after the first cases were identified (though it may have been around before). Anecdotally people in workplaces and schools are dropping like flies which helps explain why boroughs with young working age populations are getting hit worst. It is loving those hipsters!

This out break is currently concentrated geographically and demographically but it indicates how virulent it will be when it reaches other cities and other parts of the population.

And that is also after a week when hospitality and entertainment have pretty much emptied out in what is for those industries effectively lockdown

You can see why even shopping trolley Boris might be swinging to lockdown

So we shouldn’t try?

We should try to do the things that we know will help. Boosters and more boosters. Optional protection for vulnerable people to stay at home, if they choose it. Fix sick pay to reduce the impact of it spreading through workplaces and having whole sectors fall over.

But that’s not the same as “we should just do anything that’s in the spirit of trying.” Especially if what’s suggested comes with its own substantial costs (and not just financial ones).

If we know there’s a huge storm coming, we should do what we can to fasten things down, get people out of flood zones and prepare emergency services for impact. But we shouldn’t therefore say “well let’s try waiting until a week after it’s due to hit and then doing a weather dance to make it weaker!”

MsAgnesDiPesto, unfortunately there is a phrase about how you can't argue with certain types that apply here.

Ultimately we are going to have lots of people having parties to deliberately spite the government, who will ultimately end up doing more harm to themselves in various ways as a result.

It is most likely, a two week thing to give ourselves the best opportunity. After that restrictions then kind of defeat their own purpose.

It is what it is.

I get the frustration, against and indeed anger over this.

Ive been in house arrest in the last couple of weeks and its dreadful. And I've cried over the prospect of it again, so soon.

But its the reality of the position we are in and i dont think therr is any easy way out for any of us.

We are that far deep in it.

*Why should I have to google what the OP has failed to provide?

That would be the one who hasn't come back. hmm*

@allecht The Times story was behind a paywall and The Guardian one was part of a massive live blog so I posted a link which was easily accessible to everyone. You're welcome.

@Mindareno

The chances of a vaccinated person with no co-morbidities dying from Covid (not with) are vanishingly small

Yes but that’s not the issue. The issue is people have decided not to get the vaccine and those individuals are disproportionately taking up emergency medical care and hospital beds. So people who have heart attacks, road traffic accidents, any other healthcare need will find they can’t have treatment because the NHS is too busy treating (primarily) the unjabbed.

It’s about the NHS being overwhelmed, not anyone’s risk of dying from covid on an individual level.

It's actually so frustrating at this point how much misinformation people like yourself are spreading.

35 percent. Thirty. Five. Percent. of those in hospital. With covid. Are Unvaccinated. The rest. Are. Vaccinated.

Check Fullfact, for the data.

Also we should probably start properly investing in increasing NHS capacity. This will not help for omicron but will help in the future.

Back in the original wave people correctly pointed out that this takes time and you can’t train an ICU nurse overnight. Still, we could have been nearly two years into that process now, rather than two years of focusing on taping up picnic benches and working out whether a Scotch egg counted as a meal in legislation.

I am not sure how you can ban indoor mixing now, short of having a curfew and the army on the streets.

Granny on her own in a cold flat while Boris, his party and half the civil service party in their offices? And pop stars rent out rests privately?

Not sure I see much buy in.

Restaurants

@MsAgnesDiPesto

I can’t believe that people are being so wilfully hard of thinking on this. I see it on every thread. ‘I’ve had enough!’ ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ ‘ the government had parties, so I will too!’.

Yes, those things are true.

BUT

The pandemic is caused by a new virus. It does what it wants to, in predictable and unpredictable ways. The government is not guiding its progress. As much of a shower of shit as they are, it’s not their fault that the virus is changing, and we have to change our response to it accordingly.

Here are some more facts:

If the doubling rate continues, and it is so far, then it will be less than 2 weeks before a number the size of our population is infected. That’s everyone. All at once, not in manageable shifts.

Forget the NHS for a minute - although of course it would be a disaster for the service and therefore for all of us.

Think instead of all the other services which would not be able to run. Food chain supply. Medical supplies. Water and sewage services. Power plants. Bin collection and waste processing. Burying the dead, fgs. Schools and education all shut. Public transport off.

Of course the state of the NHS is the fault of successive, rapacious Tory governments’ underfunding. But even if we gave them all the money they need, today, it would be years before the service could run as we all want it to. We can’t, sadly, magic up the staff and capacity we would need to handle the numbers affected, even if we do allow EU workers back (which of course should have always been the case).

As of yesterday, only 51% of people had received a booster. They aren’t efficacious until maybe a couple of weeks later. So at the moment, huge swathes of the population are in a position where they are vulnerable to transmission, and if they catch Omicron, they are out of the workforce for ten days. Only a small proportion can be taken out of the equation when considering the doubling rate, as a much smaller number than the 51% will be fully protected as of now.

So we have to be prepared to take measures which will keep things manageable and allow the country to keep running, even if it is in a reduced or tick over mode, until boosters are received and working - which 2 weeks slowdown at the beginning of January would offer.

I hate the idea. I hate it all. I have developed anxiety and depression due in part to the effect of the pandemic. But I can see why this is needed, and how it will directly affect my life if we don’t do it.

Why can’t so many of you?

Well said. It frankly doesn't matter how pissed off we all feel - the alternative to locking down under these will be so much worse in ways most people couldn't predict. We need to look at the data now, not the data from earlier variants, and we need to leave out the anger, resentment and emotion from the decisions.

I get the anger and if people act accordingly so be it

Although I do think many will go along with it as numbers will be high and you’ll see increasing cries to ‘do something’

My hope is we peak soon and decrease anyway, Christmas delay may do this

But I’m yet to see any timing suggestions on this

Back in the original wave people correctly pointed out that this takes time and you can’t train an ICU nurse overnight. Still, we could have been nearly two years into that process now, rather than two years of focusing on taping up picnic benches and working out whether a Scotch egg counted as a meal in legislation

I agree. They could have used the time - and all the BILLIONS they wasted giving it to Dido Harding, on increasing capacity and training up people to at least assist with ventilators and help man Nightingale hospitals.

chickenrun

My mistake, it’s the ICU beds not the general beds which are primarily the unvaccinated (despite being such a minority of the population). So that’s ok with you, as are the 36% of general admissions, or do you accept that the unvaccinated are exacerbating this problem significantly?

@Chickenrun771 That figure's actually really, really bad for unvaccinated people, isn't it? 35% of people in hospital are unvaccinated, when they make up less than 15% of the population? You've been called out for spreading misinformation about numbers vaccinated / unvaccinated in hospital before, when the numbers weren't as bad as this. I'll attach the little infographic that you really don't like to see!

Hospitals are more important than pubs and nightclubs. If it makes the NHS's job easier then a lockdown is the right thing to do.